Introduction by Professor Stephen Young
Executive Director & CEO, U.S.–Vietnam Project, Caux Round Table
At a moment when the international system is under visible strain—from protracted conflicts in the Middle East to intensifying strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific—the future trajectory of Vietnam–U.S. relations deserves careful and serious attention. The convergence of two volatile issues— bringing peace to Gaza and resolving the questions of who must pay tariffs and making supply-chains trustworthy and reliable—has created a rare inflection point global affairs. US-Vietnam relations today are not merely another episode in a narrowly focused bilateral engagement; conditions present a strategic test of whether the relationship can evolve from symbolic superficials into having structural resilience.
Vietnam and the United States have traveled a remarkable path over the past three decades. From a post-war normalization to a more fulsome strategic partnership, the arc of cooperation has expanded to include issues of trade, technology, education, and regional security. Yet maturity in international relations is measured not by ceremonial events but by an ability to manage frictions—particularly in areas such as trade imbalances, origin transparency, and geopolitical risk.
In the analysis that follows, Hoang Thang Dinh (PhD) argues that Vietnam’s role in emerging peace initiatives and its response to tariff pressures are interconnected dimensions of building national credibility in a fragmented global order. As middle powers gain greater relevance in a multi-polar world, Vietnam’s choices—alongside America’s—will shape not only the durability of their bilateral ties but also the broader architecture of cooperation in the Indo-Pacific and even beyond.
By: Hoang Thang Dinh (PhD), U.S.–Vietnam Project, CRT
The “Board of Peace – Gaza” initiative has emerged at a moment when the international system is increasingly ruptured by protracted conflicts and strategic misalignments among major powers. The crisis in the Middle East is not merely a humanitarian tragedy or a matter of regional security; it has become emblematic of a global order lacking effective mechanisms for inter-state coordination and intentional collective response. In such a context, the role of middle powers like Vietnam—countries that aspire to maintain channels of dialogue with multiple sides—becomes especially significant.
For Vietnam, active participation in peace initiatives is more than simply a position; it is an investment in acquiring long-term strategic credibility. Hanoi’s advantages lie in having a balanced diplomacy, avoidance of military alliances, and a consistent commitment to international law. By proactively leveraging outreach from this open-ended platform, Vietnam can affirm that it is not just one link in global supply chains, but, more significantly, is also a responsible stakeholder in all global affairs. In turn, this stance sends a signal to all partners – current and potential – that Vietnam’s bilateral relationships rest on political depth and strategic substance, rather than being limited to trade flows or petty transactional diplomacy.
Tariffs: A Bottleneck Requiring Decisive Resolution
The immediate and more tangible test of Vietnam–U.S. relations lies in the economic sphere. A substantial trade surplus and recurring suspicions of tariff circumvention have turned the issue of trade practices and regulations into a persistent source of sensitivity. As the United States tightens supply chain controls to curb China’s industrial influence, Vietnam finds itself conflicted—benefiting from manufacturing relocation from China while simultaneously risking being perceived as a transshipment hub for Chinese companies.
At this time, should Indonesia secure a favorable trade arrangement with Washington, new competitive pressures would impact Vietnam markedly. Then present competitive rivalries would no longer center solely on textiles or furniture; competition would revolve around access to high-value technology supply chains, including semiconductors, advanced batteries, and renewable energy systems. For the United States, the decisive factor in economic relations is no longer low labor costs but institutional transparency and systemic reliability. In this light, a high-level trade consultation mechanism, coupled with firm commitments to prevent place of origin fraud, could prove pivotal in dispelling American suspicions and establishing a stable, forward-looking framework for trade between both parties. The multiple rounds of negotiations conducted by the ten trade delegations from both sides thus far do not appear to have yielded fully satisfactory outcomes for either party.
Resolving tariff disputes in a definitive manner would not only sustain export growth but also elevate Vietnam’s role from that of a passive recipient of supply chain relocation to a creator of value added innovation in emerging product lines.
U.S.–China Competition: Balancing Without Standing Aside
The U.S.–China strategic rivalry is reshaping the Indo-Pacific security and economic landscapes. Within this evolving environment, Vietnam neither can nor would wish to choose sides, yet equally it cannot afford to remain just a silent and passive by-stander. An autonomous, independent and diversified foreign policy would enable Hanoi to maintain stable relations with both powers. But doing so demands increasingly sophisticated management of risks and response to developments.
From Washington’s perspective, Vietnam could become a partner of considerable geostrategic relevance having a dynamic economy. For Hanoi, ties with the United States would provide access to advanced technology, a vast consumer market, and high-quality capital flows. If properly structured, such mutually beneficial cooperation between Washington and Hanoi would never aim at confronting any third country, but only at strengthening Vietnam’s strategic resilience. In a region where trust has become an increasingly scarce asset, policy consistency and predictability will constitute a most critical competitive advantage for any nation motivated to commit to such consistency and predictability.
From Historical Symbolism to Durable Strategic Architecture
The historic events already commemorated this past year——fifty years since the end of the war, thirty years of normalization, and those yet to come – the 250th anniversary of American independence—create a powerful symbolic backdrop for the optimal evolution of Vietnam-US relations, Such bilateral relations have been, with good faith and skill, transformed from conflict to deep and wide-ranging cooperation within barely three decades, following a trajectory that has exceeded even the expectations of the most ptimistic observers.
History, however, is made only through the establishment of concrete and enduring institutional frameworks. Anything less substantive is only sand blowing in the wind. If both sides can convert high-level engagements into substantive progress on tariff resolution, enhanced supply chain transparency, and coordinated contributions to peace initiatives such as proposed for Gaza, bilateral ties between Hanoi and Washington will enter a qualitatively more mature phase. At that point, the bilateral relationship will be less vulnerable to domestic political shifts in one country or the other, or to unpredictable fluctuations in the global balance of power.
In a world increasingly polarized and fragmented, the maturity of Vietnam–U.S. relations will not be measured solely by ceremonies and diplomatic language, but by the mutual capacity to confront and resolve the most difficult issues. It is precisely at these selective and very sensitive pressure points that the strategic future of the relationship will ultimately be determined.