From Resilient Continuity To Realizing Possibilities: A New Path For The Vietnamese People

Introduction:  From Endurance to Opening: A New Path for the Vietnamese People”

  • Introduced by Professor Stephen B. Young, Global Executive Director of the Caux Round Table for Moral Capitalism; author The Tradition of Human Rights in China and Vietnam
  • Written by Former Ambassador Hoang Thang Dinh, Ph.D. in Political Science and Fellow of the Caux Round Table

What comes next for Vietnam in the twenty-first century?

This is a question not only for Vietnamese scholars and citizens, but also for any policymaker, international business partner, social-media communities, and younger generations seeking a practical vision of Vietnam’s possible place in a rapidly changing world.

From Endurance to Opening: A New Path for the Vietnamese People begins by recounting an extraordinary historical achievement: despite centuries of foreign domination, warfare, division, political rupture, and displacement, the Vietnamese people have preserved their identity, communal continuity, and national sovereignty. The essay calls this capacity “Endurance”, a resilient communal continuity

Yet such endurance alone is no longer sufficient to advance Vietnam’s prospects. Qualities that once enabled survival—adaptability, resilience, social cohesion, and the ability to absorb external shocks and alternative narratives on norms and proper socialization—may become constraints when they harden into political inertia, intellectual accommodation, or acceptance of conditions that should be changed. Vietnam’s twenty first century journey must therefore lead from Endurance through a process of national Maturing  leading to a cultural, social, economic and political Opening Up to all of humanity:  internalizing the capacity to transform historical experience into wisdom, power into responsibility, economic growth into human dignity, and national identity into a creative contribution to humanity.

This essay was developed within the framework of the broader U.S.–Vietnam Project, an effort to deepen mutual understanding between the two countries and help realize the full potential of their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Such understanding is increasingly important as Vietnam and the United States navigate a changing Indo-Pacific shaped by strategic competition, technological transformation, and their shared interest in a free and open regional order. I am pleased that a number of friends and other officials in our diplomatic and national security agencies have taken an interest in this essay and previous commentaries.

For scholars, policymakers, citizens, and young people asking where Vietnam may go next—and what values should guide that journey—this essay offers not a finalized proposal, but an invitation to reflect and dialogue on what is to be done by the Vietnamese to advance their destiny in promising directions. It is in this spirit of seeking the greater good that I am pleased to commend this thoughtful and ambitious essay to all those concerned with Vietnam’s future.

Here is the essay.

FROM RESILIENT CONTINUITY TO REALIZING POSSIBILITIES 

A NEW PATH FOR THE VIETNAMESE PEOPLE

INTRODUCTION

FROM AN AGE OF “ORDER” TO AN AGE OF “TRANSITION”

For much of the twentieth century, strategic thinking often began with the question: What kind of order is framing world events? People gave names to various structures of behaviors and expectations: the colonial system, the bipolar order, Pax Americana, or liberal globalization. Yet an “order” is only a still photograph capturing a particular moment, while history is a film that continues moving from one frame to another. The twenty-first century increasingly shows that humanity is preparing to enter a new order that has not yet fully taken its shape. We are living in an age in which power, technology, climate, population, data, and systems of values are changing simultaneously, while no great power is yet capable of establishing a new and enduring status quo.

For Vietnam, this movement fundamentally changes the modalities of survival. In the past, we could endure through resilience by contracting when invaded, dispersing to avoid destruction, and then gathering strength to restore our sovereignty. Today, borders remain important, but dependence on others also operates through supply chains, obtaining core technologies, data infrastructure, finance, education, and even algorithms created by others that quietly shape human perceptions and decisions. A country may preserve its territorial integrity while losing its capacity for self-determination; it may grow rapidly while mortgaging its future; it may maintain political stability while trust, creativity, and civic responsibility gradually withdraw from common life. Adaptation for the sake of survival is no longer sufficient. Vietnam must acquire the capacity to orient itself towards the future it wants amid the very process of transition.

This essay begins with an undeniable achievement: through thousands of years of war, foreign domination, division, natural disasters, and political ruptures, the Vietnamese people have maintained their historical continuity. Many communities that once possessed territories, languages, and cultures have been assimilated by others or have just disappeared; the Vietnamese, although they lost their sovereignty more than once, repeatedly re-established communal life and re-asserted ethnic autonomy. This capacity can be called resilient continuity (Truong ton) and provided for lasting Endurance for the Vietnamese as a people

Such Endurance is not a mysterious gift reserved for our people, nor is it evidence of an immutable “Vietnamese essence.” It is the result, year in and year out,  of many forces operating together: the resilience of the family and the village, the tenacious survival of language and memories, the capacity to receive but then Vietnamize external influences, and the ability to disperse in times of danger and reunite when opportunities to do so arose. Such a capacity for Endurance encompassed the intelligence, sacrifices, wise choices, and tragic decisions of many generations and still today energizes Vietnamese to advance by themselves their national destiny.

Yet it is precisely here that the central paradox emerges. A capacity developed in response to a particular set of circumstances may become a form of inertia when those circumstances change and new, more fitting, capabilities are demanded by those circumstances A core capability that once ensured success may harden into a core rigidity that obstructs renewal as times and economic realities change. Resourcefulness in the moment may weaken the capacity for long-term construction; accommodation may become avoidance of principle; just enduring may cause society to accept for too long conditions that should have been changed. Unity in the face of foreign invasion has repeatedly dissolved into divisiveness once the external enemy disappeared. Endurance is therefore both a precious legacy and a possible ceiling limiting the nation’s maturation as new possibilities arise.

Moving beyond the ceiling on responsiveness imposed by enduring is the stage of of Maturation, which his the capacity of a historical community to become more fully self-aware and intentional, to correct and orient itself appropriately; to elevate power into responsibility, growth into personal dignity, memory into wisdom, and uniqueness into creative energy. If Enduring answers the question of how not to be erased from history, Maturation answers the question of how to rise above systemic conformism and acquire a comprehensive agency, not to continue being led by history in an uncertain and unreflective manner.

Enduring and Maturing must both be understood on two levels: as a crystallized outcome of actions taken and as a continuing process moving forward in time. Classical Endurance was expressed by protecting the community and recovering sovereignty. Yet Enduring in these modern times is never enough, because sovereignty today also encompasses the capacity to master knowledge, technology, natural resources, data, and make strategic decisions. Similarly, Maturation is now necessary in a period when independence and civilization have reached a high degree of development, but this contemporary Maturing must be the shared undertaking of all Vietnamese. It cannot be monopolized by either the nationalists or the communists, by those inside the country or those overseas, by the state or independent intellectuals. A people becomes truly mature only when each and all participate in defining the common interest.

Such a perspective also requires a multilinear reading of history. The history that did occur was not the only history that could have occurred. Alongside the victorious currents, there have always been possibilities that emerged but were then cut short, ideas that foresaw the future but found no institutions capable of adopting and acting on them, and communities that left a remembered legacy despite having suffered military or political defeat. In the 19th century, Nguyễn Trường Tộ very correctly perceived the “great tendency of the world” at that time and so proposed comprehensive reforms in scholarship, administration, economics, and technology, but this his new understanding was not adopted by a sufficiently powerful coalition capable of turning it into a national program. A mature nation is not afraid to look back at the possibilities that history did not champion.

If Maturation is a process of evolution, then Opening Up to bring about viable possibilities is a process looking towards a horizon. For Vietnamese to Open Up today, to unfold their collective genius does not mean their Westernizing, breaking with tradition, or pursuing everything new. It is the liberation of valuable possibilities that are ready for exploitation but have not yet been fully developed: moving from adaptation to initiating creativity, from defensiveness to construction, from submission to taking responsibility, and leaving behind a community trapped by its history to become an agent capable of making history going forward. Opening Up does not negate Endurance; it enables the sources of Endurance to find a larger current.

A new path for the Vietnamese people is therefore neither a new ideology nor a declaration that the Vietnamese possess a truth of their own. It must be a way of moving forward together: sufficiently grounded in “Vietnamese character” and so not becoming a copy of others, yet sufficiently open to the global community to consider universal values; sufficiently connected to history to have roots, yet sufficiently free to criticize that very history. Values such as love, tolerance, creativity, responsibility, humanity, and dignity acquire real meaning only when they are embodied in modern life through human rights, citizens’ rights, the rule of law, democracy, and institutions that enable society to recognize and correct its mistakes.

This new journey for the Vietnamese may be imagined through the image of a tree. Its roots, reaching deep into the soil of history, represent Enduring. Its growing trunk, forming a structure, withstanding storms, and healing itself, represents Maturing. Its canopy, receiving light, air, water, and nourishment from all directions, represents Opening Up to possibilities. Its flowers and fruits are what the Vietnamese people may offer to the world. Preserving the roots does not mean rejecting the sky; opening the canopy to light does not mean losing the roots. Yet roots that cannot absorb nourishment will rot, a trunk that cannot carry sap up to the branches and leaves will wither, and a canopy that receives no light will bear neither flowers nor fruit.

This essay reads history as leaving behind layers of sediment. Each layer contains nourishment and toxins, achievements and wounds, realities that came into being and possibilities that remained unrealized. The challenge today then is neither to worship nor to reject the past, but to make the past a set of options for the future. A mature nation does not carry history as a sentence imposed upon it. It carries history as memory subjected to reflection, and thereby learns what must be inherited, what must be transcended, and what must never be allowed to happen again.

The central thesis of this essay may be expressed as follows: the Vietnamese people have demonstrated their capacity to survive, but to succeed and flourish in this twenty-first century they must acquire the capacities for Maturing and Opening Up. Endurance is the foundation; Maturation is transformative growth; Opening Up envisions the horizon. This journey does not belong exclusively to a state, a political party, an intellectual class, or a generation. It is the shared undertaking of Vietnamese communities inside and outside the country, of people who carry different memories, and especially of the younger generation—those who not only have inherited the debts and disappointments of history but also have the right to participate in writing a covenant with the future.

PART I

HISTORICAL CYCLES: CHALLENGE, ADAPTATION, AND SOVEREIGNTY

This historical section does not seek to retell the long history of the Vietnamese people, nor does it use the past as mandating a necessary destiny. This section reads history as a series of repeated cycles of challenge, response, accumulated capacities, and enduring wounds. Vietnamese Enduring therefore appears not as an immutable miracle, but as the end result of many choices, repeated processes of adaptation, and hopeful possibilities that emerged only to be cut short.

1. From the Early Period to Chinese Rule: Preserving the Core while Adapting External Influences

The periods of Văn Lang–Âu Lạc tribal coalescence and the revolt of the Trưng Sisters against Han Chinese imperialism must be discerned at the intersection of mythology, archaeology, and historical records written in later times. Legends should not be turned into facts in the modern sense, but neither should mythology be regarded as fiction. Origin stories, memories of the Hùng Kings, Mother Âu Cơ and Father Lạc Long Quân, and the uprising of the Trưng Sisters tell us how later generations, looking back, imagined their community: as a hundred children born from a single womb, bound by symbolic kinship yet accepting dispersion to the mountains or the seashore; bearing traces of female authority and indigenous beliefs; and carrying memories of a distinct political space before incorporation into the Chinese imperial bureaucratic state.

The endurance capacity accumulated in this early layer of psycho-social reality was the consciousness that the community could possess a life of its own. But caution, however, arises from the fragmentary nature of the evidence and the temptation to use mythology to legitimize present-day conclusions. Endurance did not arise from some pre-existing and homogeneous essence shared by all historic Vietnamese. The Vietnamese experience began with numerous communities in the river deltas and uplands gradually forming connections, both conflicting and integrating with one another, and later being remembered as having shared a common origin.

From the defeat of the Trưng Sisters in 39 CE to the Vietnamese victory at the Bạch Đằng River in 938 CE, the pressure of assimilation continued over centuries.  Han Chinese administrative institutions, written characters, laws, scholarship, and the imperial model penetrated deeply into Vietnamese communities. Yet this reception did not take place in a vacuum. Families, villages, popular beliefs, the spoken language, and memories of resistance created places of refuge for the community to continue as a self-system. A unique identity was not lost, but preserved, and even venerated.

The subsequent indigenous uprisings extending from Lady Triệu to Lý Bí, Mai Thúc Loan, Phùng Hưng, Khúc Thừa Dụ, and Dương Đình Nghệ showed that a desire for self-rule did not suddenly appear in 938. That moral and political energy – a social capital – was a capacity nurtured and refined over many generations. In 939 CE, Ngô Quyền did not establish independence upon a land that had remained entirely quiescent; his victory at Bạch Đằng was the point at which currents of separateness and resistance, flowing quietly or erupting openly across many centuries, finally converged generating military effectiveness.

Buddhism played a significant role in this process because it created spiritual and intellectual networks that did not completely coincide with the mores and teachings of the colonial bureaucracy. Lê Mạnh Thát’s bold approach to the history of Vietnamese Buddhism may be consulted, but an interpretation such as his that remains contested should not be turned into the sole basis of understanding. What is more certain is that religious centers, trading networks, and villages helped the indigenous society maintain its connections to its past, receive written scripts and ideas from both India and China, and gradually Vietnamize them.

What these cycles of intrusion, adaption, and resistance produced was a core ability to contract without dissolving, to learn from the stronger power without entirely losing oneself in that foreignness, and to reunite as a community when opportunity appeared. What was lost were many indigenous cultural layers that became obscured; the long-term imposition on the evolving but enduring community was a deep dependence on the writing system, canonical models, and structures of social power and governance brought by the Chinese. The capacity for adaptation created vitality, but it also planted the seeds of a lasting disposition toward the neighboring giant civilization where admiration, insecurity, and resistance existed side by side.

2. The Lý–Trần and Early Lê Dynasties: 450 Years of Classical Self-Rule and National Flowering

After regaining sovereignty for the Vietnamese people, the Lý and Trần dynasties did not merely defend their borders against Chinese imperialism. They also built viable state institutions, a legal order, irrigation systems, an army, and a cultural space capable of expressing itself. That culture flourished with an amalgam known as the Three Teachings coexisting within a relatively flexible moral and intellectual order of spiritual development; Buddhism contributed to political and ethical life;  A Confucianism derived from the Analects and the Mencius gradually supplied norms and techniques of governance; and indigenous beliefs continued to provide spiritual sustenance in both villages and the royal court. The uniquely Vietnamese Trúc Lâm school of Zen was a representative synthesis: it followed Buddhism while linking spiritual practice with responsibility toward the community and the country.

This may be regarded as a major Opening Up of the Vietnamese as a people permitted by an age of self-rule: knowledge received from outside was transformed into national capacity and a distinct cultural dynamic passed on from generation to generation. The solidarity displayed in the face of the Mongol–Yuan invasions of the 14th Century showed that the royal court, the nobility, the villages, and the army could coordinate efficiently with one another when the country confronted an existential threat. Although the historical and symbolic dimensions of the Diên Hồng Conference where the ruling Dynasty decided to fight back on behalf of the entire people must be elevated in contemporary esteem, it nevertheless gave rise to the memory of a moment when state power had to seek a consensus of values and personal commitments extending far beyond royal courtyards.

Yet this era of Buddhist influence should not be romanticized. The social order remained hierarchical, power belonged to a minority, ordinary lives remained precarious, and dynastic struggles between and within families never disappeared. This classical Opening Up created a high point of civilization for the Vietnamese people, but it did not yet constitute freedom and citizenship in the modern sense. The lesson for Vietnamese today is not to replicate the Lý–Trần model, but to recognize and apply once again its ability to receive multiple intellectual sources without allowing any one of them immediately to monopolize the spiritual life of the people.

The twenty years of Ming colonial rule which followed the collapse of the Tran Dynasty were shorter than the earlier centuries of Chinese domination, but the intensity of foreign control, exploitation, and cultural destruction was particularly severe. Responding to that ordeal, the Lam Sơn uprising did not merely recover political authority; it also created a new language of legitimacy. The Proclamation of Victory over the Wu placed Benevolence and Righteousness alongside consciousness of territory, customs, history, and civilization as essential for the Vietnamese capacity to Endure. It’s author, Nguyễn Trãi transformed resistance to foreign invasion into a moral proposition: bringing peace to the people was the standard of politics, and independence meant not merely replacing a foreign ruler with an indigenous one but restoring the full dignity of a civilized community deserving a status equal to that claimed by Chinese Neo-Confucian mandarins and scholars

The new capacity for Vietnamese Enduring produced by this cycle of invasion, repression, resistance, and re-assertion of national autonomy was a clearer consciousness of what a state should be and of what constituted its legitimacy. Yet the early Lê rulers subsequently strengthened centralized monarchy, the legal order, and Mencian Confucianism. This organizational capacity that helped stabilize the state also narrowed the social and cultural options permitted by the more pluralistic space which had prevailed during the previous period. A collective capacity that liberated the country from foreign domination could become a force for concentrating power domestically once peace had been restored.

This cycle shows that oppression does not automatically generate a fulsome Maturing of a people. Only when leadership, organization, a moral language, and the capacity for institutionalization are present can wounds from the past be transformed into bringing forth and then supporting a new, more consequential, stage of national development. Even then, the fruits of liberation may carry with them the seeds of rigidity in centralizing power in the state and its preferred elite families. Defeating foreign invasion and building a mature political community are related capacities, but they are not the same.

3. Civil Wars, Southward Expansion, and the Formation of a Multivector Vietnamese Identity

The prolonged conflicts beginning int he late 1500s between the Lê and Mạc clans, the Trịnh and Nguyễn clans, and the Tây Sơn brothers fighting Prince Nguyễn Ánh exhausted the Vietnamese, while also opening new realities of regional expansion, trade, and cultural interchange. The southward expansion down from the Red River Delta and contiguous provinces cannot be told solely as the Vietnamese people’s journey of territorial enlargement. It is also a history of dispossession, adaptation, and profoundly unequal coexistence involving the Chăm, Khmer, indigenous peoples, and the Minh Hương community of Chinese fleeing the Manchu Qing Dynasty. A mature common history must contain both pride in national expansion and  memories of those communities who paid a price for that expansion.

Through the stage by stage pioneering movement southward, Vietnamese identity became more multilvectored. The “Five Quảng Provinces” bore the strong imprint of interaction with Chăm culture; the far South, including the Mekong River Delta, brought encounters, conflicts, and mixtures among Vietnamese, Khmer, Chinese, Chăm, and other communities. The commercial talents of the Chinese Minh Hương settlers , the Mạc Cửu, and regional trading networks showed that the South provinces were not simply an extension of life in the Red River Delta. It was a new social space in which Vietnamese identity continued to take shape through contact with other identities. Three dialects of spoken Vietnamese emerged: one in the Red River Delta, another in the central provinces along the coast of the South China Sea, and a third north and south of the two branches of the mighty Mekong River.

In each civil war, every protagonist constructed its own legitimacy, heroes, villains, and created it own victims. The Tây Sơn rebels may be viewed as a force that, in the late 18th century, broke the old order, unified much of the country under their rule, and defeated a foreign invasion; Prince Nguyễn Ánh, who defeated the Tây Sơn to establish his own Nguyen Dynasty, may be viewed as the ruler who completed the territorial unification of the country while opening the door for an increasingly conservative dynasty to reign from the city of Hue in Central Vietnam. Neither side consisted only of light or darkness. Nguyễn Huệ of the Tây Sơn defeated the Qing forces in the north, but the Tây Sơn army also devastated Gia Định in the south; Nguyễn Ánh relied upon foreign assistance to help him defeat the Tây Sơn, but this alone cannot erase him from the history of national construction.

This was not yet an ideological division in the twentieth-century sense, but it already put in place the prehistory of a binary habit: the victor turning himself into the sole legitimate historical current, while the defeated were expelled from authorized memory. When history is told only in the language of the victorious, a people loses not merely the truth of the defeated side, but also the ability to understand itself in full. Excluded memories do not disappear; they survive within families, regions, and communities that carry forward a sense of dispossession.

What this episode of the recurring cycle produced was an expanded national territory, the development of trade, and a Vietnamese identity that became regionally diverse and so complex. What it cost was human life, social trust, and the ability to build a form of legitimacy recognized by multiple communities. Endurance through division preserved a common territorial space, but it could not by itself heal the wounds inflicted by Vietnamese upon one another. Those fractures would reappear in different forms in the twentieth century.

4. The Nguyễn Dynasty and the Colonial Period: Unification, Delayed Reform, and the Reception of Modernity

The Nguyễn dynasty organized a unified state across an extensive territory, completed its administrative system, and sought to establish sovereignty. The nineteenth century for Vietnamese cannot be understood merely through use of the label “reactionary,” because the ruling dynasty had to govern a country needing discipline due to its having emerged from a prolonged civil war, weakened by deep regional differences, and facing unprecedented external pressures.

Yet as the world entered the age of industrialization and colonialism, the Hue royal court turned strongly towards Neo-Confucian orthodoxy, using old Chinese categories of thought to interpret an entirely new balance of power with the arrival of French expansionists. What had once helped organize the state and consolidate order was no longer sufficient to identify the nature of the new challenge. Vietnam faced not merely a stronger army, but an entire new civilizational system driven by science, industry, trade, maritime power, and a type of state capable of mobilizing resources on a scale far beyond that achieved by traditional Asian dynasties.

Nguyễn Trường Tộ represented a notable “counter-history”—a possible response for Vietnam that was proposed  but never realized. Through The Great Tendency of the World, the Eight Urgent Proposals, and dozens of other petitions, he did not merely recommend purchasing machinery or learning Western techniques. He sought to change education, the recruitment and use of talent, administrative organization, the economy, the legal order, and the Vietnamese understanding of the world. He understood that preserving the country required, first of all, recognizing how profoundly the world had changed.

This tragedy cannot be reduced to the story of a genius rejected by ignorant men. The court lacked the money and the capacity for implementation; the bureaucracy defended established interests; wounded national pride turned into cultural defensiveness; Nguyễn Trường Tộ’s Catholic identity and personal connections aroused suspicion. More fundamentally, Vietnam lacked a reform coalition powerful enough to establish priorities, gather talent, and transform knowledge of the future into a national program.  

Perceiving the danger was not enough. There also had to be institutions capable of listening to those who perceived it. No Meiji restoration came to the rescue of the Vietnamese.

Like Vietnam, in the 1860s Japan also lacked capital, faced pressure from the West, and was constrained by an old intellectual order. Yet the Meiji leadership created a reform coalition, accepted the dismantling of many privileges, and directed scarce resources according to the priority of building “a rich country and a strong army.” This comparison is not intended to idealize Japan’s path, still less to condemn the Vietnamese as an inferior people. It simply reveals the system advantage that comes from having a few individuals who could see the future and possessing a structure of power capable of using them.

The capacity that had once permitted the stability of the Nguyễn dynasty hardened into a limitation on its prospects  at precisely the moment when national survival required another kind of envisioning and organizing. This is a characteristic example of the paradox of Endurance: what once helped a community preserve order may obstruct its ability to renew itself when renewal becomes necessary; national pride that once protected identity may become a refusal to acknowledge the arrival of a new reality; loyalty to tradition may become a fear of admitting that tradition can no longer provide good answers for how best to respond to a new situation.

French colonial rule brought forth for Vietnamese a period of lost sovereignty, colonial exploitation, and racial stratification. Every discussion of the impacts and effects of that French “civilizing mission”  to enlighten and uplift the Vietnamese must begin with that reality of coercion.

Yet the impress of Colonial rule was not unidirectional. Cities, the press, the Romanized Vietnamese script, new schools, laws, science, and global trade created channels of modernization that the Vietnamese actively appropriated in order to better resist the colonial regime itself. Instruments introduced to facilitate colonial rule gradually became means for the formation of a new public, a new political language, and new ways of imagining the nation.

Phan Châu Trinh placed the advancement of popular knowledge and the development of social capacity as the first priority in reasserting national self-governance before the direct use of violence. Phan Bội Châu sought national salvation through the Đông Du movement and connections with other Asian cultures. Phạm Quỳnh saw the Vietnamese language as the repository of the national soul which could use it to survive and outlast the French intrusion in another instance of the Vietnamese capacity for Endurance.. The Đông Kinh Free School, the Duy Tân movement, the printed press, and modern literatur created an unprecedented and very modern space for public discussion. Ideas concerning citizens’ rights, the nation, science, education, and the role of the individual began entering social life, opening competing possibilities for Vietnam’s future.

The “golden generation” of Western-educated Vietnamese intellectuals did not share a single political orientation. Some followed nationalism, some chose communism, and others served different governments; many placed patriotism and the aspiration for modernization above loyalty to any single doctrine. This multivectorism must be recovered for Vietnam to prosper in the twenty-first century.

Tạ Quang Bửu provides a verifiable example: he participated in the revolution against French colonial rule from August 1945 but did not join the Communist Party until July 1947. A single example cannot support a generalization about an entire generation, but it is sufficient to prevent us from equating patriotic motivation with a pre-existing ideological conversion. For many intellectuals of the period, the nation was the point of departure; doctrine was a path chosen in its service.

What the period of Western colonialism produced was a modern language, a new intellectual class, the capacity for global communication, and new ideas of citizens’ rights, nationhood, and science. What it cost the Vietnamese was sovereignty, resources, human lives, and the opportunity for autonomous development. These two dimensions do not cancel one another out. Civilization did not prevent the oppressive nature of colonialism; but oppression could not entirely forestall the growth of creative capacities among the colonized.

The deeper lesson is that external knowledge generates an internal capacity only when the Vietnamese appropriate it, debate it, and translate it into the language of needs that they themselves define. Not everything introduced from abroad represents progress; neither does every foreign influence threaten national identity. The decisive question is whether the community possesses sufficient autonomy to select, transform, and use it.

5. From 1945 to the Present: Revolution and Counter-Revolution, Two Vietnams, and Remembered Experiences Yet to Be Reconciled

The August 1945 Revolution against the return of French governance mobilized an aspiration for independence that extended far beyond the communist constituency. During the following decades of war, communism provided organization, discipline, and an appealing vision of equality. Yet along with Cold War polarization, domestic repression, land reform, ideological control, and political monopoly, Communism also produced profound wounds.

The story of this period cannot be told monochromatically as a victorious resistance against foreign invasion. Nor can it be reduced to the story of a society subjected entirely to one-party coercion. Patriotism, revolutionary faith, organizational power, the intervention of great powers, and fear were all present. History becomes difficult to understand precisely because very different motivations could bring people into the same ranks, while people sharing the same patriotism were driven onto opposing sides.

During the thirty years from 1945 to 1975, the Vietnamese were not fighting a single war. At least four wars overlapped: the struggle for independence from colonial rule; the conflict between competing national projects; the ideological war embedded in the structure of the Cold War; and a conflict fought among international powers on Vietnamese territory.

If any one of these four dimensions is absolutized, history is denied. To describe the entire conflict only as a “war of national resistance” obscures the moral and civilizational conflict among the Vietnamese themselves. To call it solely a “civil war” diminishes the powerful aspiration for independence and the scale of conflict associated with great-power interventions and subventions. To characterize it entirely as a proxy war denies the agency, responsibility, and choices of the Vietnamese forces themselves. A mature reading must be broad enough to weave these difficult truths together.

The Republic of Vietnam governing from Saigon must be studied as a legitimate chapter in Vietnam’s history of modernization. It left memorable experiences in education, the press, law, the market economy, and international engagement; at the same time, it could not divorce itself from political instability, external dependence, war in the villages, and considerable limits on democratic processes. Military defeat does not erase the value of studying that very Vietnamese experience. The Saigon government in its own way was an expression of Vietnamese Endurance. Excluding the Republic of Vietnam from learned history impoverishes the common memory and prolongs the feeling among millions of people that their symbolic homeland has been taken from them.

South Vietnam itself contained many currents and cannot be reduced to a singularity of “puppets” or “nationalists.” Some opposed communism as a very intentional political choice; some staked their hopes on building a non-communist democracy; some joined peace movements or Third Force groups, or opposed foreign intervention; others were simply trying to protect their families in wartime.

Neither was North Vietnam a completely homogeneous political entity. Differences existed within the Communist Party concerning policy, the degree of international dependence, and the conduct of the war. Outside the Party, patriotism, revolutionary loyalty, fear of power, and the instinct for survival existed in society. A person could sincerely sacrifice for independence without fully understanding the apparatus he or she served; another could use an ideal just as a means to acquire power.

The histories of the two post 1954 Vietnams therefore cannot be reduced to a simple story of patriots on one side and traitors on the other, of complete autonomy versus complete dependence, or of absolute justice versus absolute injustice. Both sides were affected by great powers; both included people who sacrificed for what they believed to be the national interest; both committed errors, engaged in coercion, and contained unrealized possibilities. Realizing this does not mean distributing responsibility equally or erasing differences. It only restores to history its inherent complexity.

After 1975, Vietnam was unified territorially but its various memories were not reconciled. The transformation of private commerce, re-education camps, the exodus of boat people, the command economy, and the system of privileging certain political family backgrounds left a deep divide between victors and defeated, and between those in Vietnam and those overseas. The victors held unilateral power to authoritatively define the past, but they had no power to make the private memories of the defeated disappear from history.

Administrative centralization did not automatically become a unification of hearts. Military victory did not automatically produce national reconciliation.

The reforms of 1986 then opened an important door. Economic reality forced ideology to retreat; individual initiative, the household economy, and international integration were gradually restored. Farmers, household businesses, enterprises, and social networks released some of the capacities that had previously been constrained. The reforms demonstrated that Vietnamese society could recover rapidly when initiative was returned to the people. They also showed that solutions previously condemned as ideologically wrong could become paths to national rescue when reality could no longer be denied.

Yet market reform was not accompanied by a corresponding reform of governing power providing for the rule of law and accountability for officialdom. Economic growth, however, created a middle class and new resources, but it also generated inequality, crony capitalism, environmental destruction, and insecurity among workers. When the market is opened but regulatory power remains off-limits to citizens, initiative and agency may be liberated in the economy while continuing to be restricted in politics and intellectual life.

The development of overseas Vietnamese communities, the internet, smartphones, artificial intelligence, and Generation Z is now extending the Vietnamese space beyond national borders and the state’s monopoly over information. Ordinary people possess unprecedented capacities to learn, speak, create, and connect, but they must also confront surveillance, disinformation, and increasingly sophisticated forms of manipulation. The state is no longer the only actor capable of producing and disseminating knowledge; yet society does not automatically become wiser merely because more information is available.  All this shows Vietnamese Endurance, once again, adapting, repositioning, and overcoming.

Modern day Maturation for Vietnamese is therefore not an outcome already achieved. It is an ongoing undertaking: integrating the memories of the two Vietnams without equalizing responsibility; recognizing overseas Vietnamese as part of the national community; giving younger generations the right to participate; and building institutions through which society can detect and correct obvious errors without waiting for a crisis to destabilize elite practices

After many repetitive cycles of repression followed by Openings Up, the question is no longer merely how the Vietnamese have survived the centuries. The more important question now is how far the capacities that have enabled Vietnam to survive can carry the nation.

CONCLUDING NOTE TO PART I

Looking back across these historical cycles, there is no formula according to which “a people oppressed for long enough will automatically open itself.” Challenges may generate solidarity, but they may also generate fear; acculturation under pressure may expand a culture, but it may also produce dependence; centralized power may rescue a community in times of upheaval, but it may also suffocate creativity when it becomes the normal condition.

History does not automatically transform suffering into wisdom. A people may endure for a very long time while continuing to repeat old cycles of suffering under new names.

Endurance is therefore not a capability, which, once possessed, keeps on serving a people’s deepest needs as circumstances for them change. Every age poses a different question of survival. When the principal danger is foreign invasion, the capacity to contract, disperse, and then reunite may save the community. But when the danger lies in stagnation itself, in technological dependence, in the exhaustion of public trust, and in a structure of power incapable of correcting itself, old methods of survival may no longer be sufficient and may even become obstacles to finding happiness.

Only when memory is subjected to reflection, knowledge encounters institutions, and power accepts limits can the experience of Endurance become the starting point for Maturation. The past then ceases to be either a burden to be carried or a glory to be worshiped; it becomes a repository of experience out of which paths to the future may be thoughtfully chosen.

The history examined in this part has identified the sources, turning points, and wounds of Vietnam’s journey from Endurance to now having a chance for Maturation to bring about its good works. The next part of this essay will examine more deeply the capacity for Endurance itself: what created the exceptional resilience of the Vietnamese people, and why the resilience that once saved them may sometimes become a limitation preventing them from moving toward Opening.

PART I

HISTORICAL CYCLES: CHALLENGE, ADAPTATION, AND SOVEREIGNTY

This historical section does not seek to retell the long history of the Vietnamese people, nor does it use the past as mandating a necessary destiny. This section reads history as a series of repeated cycles of challenge, response, accumulated capacities, and enduring wounds. Vietnamese Enduring therefore appears not as an immutable miracle, but as the end result of many choices, repeated processes of adaptation, and hopeful possibilities that emerged only to be cut short.

1. From the Early Period to Chinese Rule: Preserving the Core while Adapting External Influences

The periods of Văn Lang–Âu Lạc tribal coalescence and the revolt of the Trưng Sisters against Han Chinese imperialism must be discerned at the intersection of mythology, archaeology, and historical records written in later times. Legends should not be turned into facts in the modern sense, but neither should mythology be regarded as fiction. Origin stories, memories of the Hùng Kings, Mother Âu Cơ and Father Lạc Long Quân, and the uprising of the Trưng Sisters tell us how later generations, looking back, imagined their community: as a hundred children born from a single womb, bound by symbolic kinship yet accepting dispersion to the mountains or the seashore; bearing traces of female authority and indigenous beliefs; and carrying memories of a distinct political space before incorporation into the Chinese imperial bureaucratic state.

The endurance capacity accumulated in this early layer of psycho-social reality was the consciousness that the community could possess a life of its own. But caution, however, arises from the fragmentary nature of the evidence and the temptation to use mythology to legitimize present-day conclusions. Endurance did not arise from some pre-existing and homogeneous essence shared by all historic Vietnamese. The Vietnamese experience began with numerous communities in the river deltas and uplands gradually forming connections, both conflicting and integrating with one another, and later being remembered as having shared a common origin.

From the defeat of the Trưng Sisters in 39 CE to the Vietnamese victory at the Bạch Đằng River in 938 CE, the pressure of assimilation continued over centuries.  Han Chinese administrative institutions, written characters, laws, scholarship, and the imperial model penetrated deeply into Vietnamese communities. Yet this reception did not take place in a vacuum. Families, villages, popular beliefs, the spoken language, and memories of resistance created places of refuge for the community to continue as a self-system. A unique identity was not lost, but preserved, and even venerated.

The subsequent indigenous uprisings extending from Lady Triệu to Lý Bí, Mai Thúc Loan, Phùng Hưng, Khúc Thừa Dụ, and Dương Đình Nghệ showed that a desire for self-rule did not suddenly appear in 938. That moral and political energy – a social capital – was a capacity nurtured and refined over many generations. In 939 CE, Ngô Quyền did not establish independence upon a land that had remained entirely quiescent; his victory at Bạch Đằng was the point at which currents of separateness and resistance, flowing quietly or erupting openly across many centuries, finally converged generating military effectiveness.

Buddhism played a significant role in this process because it created spiritual and intellectual networks that did not completely coincide with the mores and teachings of the colonial bureaucracy. Lê Mạnh Thát’s bold approach to the history of Vietnamese Buddhism may be consulted, but an interpretation such as his that remains contested should not be turned into the sole basis of understanding. What is more certain is that religious centers, trading networks, and villages helped the indigenous society maintain its connections to its past, receive written scripts and ideas from both India and China, and gradually Vietnamize them.

What these cycles of intrusion, adaption, and resistance produced was a core ability to contract without dissolving, to learn from the stronger power without entirely losing oneself in that foreignness, and to reunite as a community when opportunity appeared. What was lost were many indigenous cultural layers that became obscured; the long-term imposition on the evolving but enduring community was a deep dependence on the writing system, canonical models, and structures of social power and governance brought by the Chinese. The capacity for adaptation created vitality, but it also planted the seeds of a lasting disposition toward the neighboring giant civilization where admiration, insecurity, and resistance existed side by side.

2. The Lý–Trần and Early Lê Dynasties: 450 Years of Classical Self-Rule and National Flowering

After regaining sovereignty for the Vietnamese people, the Lý and Trần dynasties did not merely defend their borders against Chinese imperialism. They also built viable state institutions, a legal order, irrigation systems, an army, and a cultural space capable of expressing itself. That culture flourished with an amalgam known as the Three Teachings coexisting within a relatively flexible moral and intellectual order of spiritual development; Buddhism contributed to political and ethical life;  A Confucianism derived from the Analects and the Mencius gradually supplied norms and techniques of governance; and indigenous beliefs continued to provide spiritual sustenance in both villages and the royal court. The uniquely Vietnamese Trúc Lâm school of Zen was a representative synthesis: it followed Buddhism while linking spiritual practice with responsibility toward the community and the country.

This may be regarded as a major Opening Up of the Vietnamese as a people permitted by an age of self-rule: knowledge received from outside was transformed into national capacity and a distinct cultural dynamic passed on from generation to generation. The solidarity displayed in the face of the Mongol–Yuan invasions of the 14th Century showed that the royal court, the nobility, the villages, and the army could coordinate efficiently with one another when the country confronted an existential threat. Although the historical and symbolic dimensions of the Diên Hồng Conference where the ruling Dynasty decided to fight back on behalf of the entire people must be elevated in contemporary esteem, it nevertheless gave rise to the memory of a moment when state power had to seek a consensus of values and personal commitments extending far beyond royal courtyards.

Yet this era of Buddhist influence should not be romanticized. The social order remained hierarchical, power belonged to a minority, ordinary lives remained precarious, and dynastic struggles between and within families never disappeared. This classical Opening Up created a high point of civilization for the Vietnamese people, but it did not yet constitute freedom and citizenship in the modern sense. The lesson for Vietnamese today is not to replicate the Lý–Trần model, but to recognize and apply once again its ability to receive multiple intellectual sources without allowing any one of them immediately to monopolize the spiritual life of the people.

The twenty years of Ming colonial rule which followed the collapse of the Tran Dynasty were shorter than the earlier centuries of Chinese domination, but the intensity of foreign control, exploitation, and cultural destruction was particularly severe. Responding to that ordeal, the Lam Sơn uprising did not merely recover political authority; it also created a new language of legitimacy. The Proclamation of Victory over the Wu placed Benevolence and Righteousness alongside consciousness of territory, customs, history, and civilization as essential for the Vietnamese capacity to Endure. It’s author, Nguyễn Trãi transformed resistance to foreign invasion into a moral proposition: bringing peace to the people was the standard of politics, and independence meant not merely replacing a foreign ruler with an indigenous one but restoring the full dignity of a civilized community deserving a status equal to that claimed by Chinese Neo-Confucian mandarins and scholars

The new capacity for Vietnamese Enduring produced by this cycle of invasion, repression, resistance, and re-assertion of national autonomy was a clearer consciousness of what a state should be and of what constituted its legitimacy. Yet the early Lê rulers subsequently strengthened centralized monarchy, the legal order, and Mencian Confucianism. This organizational capacity that helped stabilize the state also narrowed the social and cultural options permitted by the more pluralistic space which had prevailed during the previous period. A collective capacity that liberated the country from foreign domination could become a force for concentrating power domestically once peace had been restored.

This cycle shows that oppression does not automatically generate a fulsome Maturing of a people. Only when leadership, organization, a moral language, and the capacity for institutionalization are present can wounds from the past be transformed into bringing forth and then supporting a new, more consequential, stage of national development. Even then, the fruits of liberation may carry with them the seeds of rigidity in centralizing power in the state and its preferred elite families. Defeating foreign invasion and building a mature political community are related capacities, but they are not the same.

3. Civil Wars, Southward Expansion, and the Formation of a Multivector Vietnamese Identity

The prolonged conflicts beginning int he late 1500s between the Lê and Mạc clans, the Trịnh and Nguyễn clans, and the Tây Sơn brothers fighting Prince Nguyễn Ánh exhausted the Vietnamese, while also opening new realities of regional expansion, trade, and cultural interchange. The southward expansion down from the Red River Delta and contiguous provinces cannot be told solely as the Vietnamese people’s journey of territorial enlargement. It is also a history of dispossession, adaptation, and profoundly unequal coexistence involving the Chăm, Khmer, indigenous peoples, and the Minh Hương community of Chinese fleeing the Manchu Qing Dynasty. A mature common history must contain both pride in national expansion and  memories of those communities who paid a price for that expansion.

Through the stage by stage pioneering movement southward, Vietnamese identity became more multilvectored. The “Five Quảng Provinces” bore the strong imprint of interaction with Chăm culture; the far South, including the Mekong River Delta, brought encounters, conflicts, and mixtures among Vietnamese, Khmer, Chinese, Chăm, and other communities. The commercial talents of the Chinese Minh Hương settlers , the Mạc Cửu, and regional trading networks showed that the South provinces were not simply an extension of life in the Red River Delta. It was a new social space in which Vietnamese identity continued to take shape through contact with other identities. Three dialects of spoken Vietnamese emerged: one in the Red River Delta, another in the central provinces along the coast of the South China Sea, and a third north and south of the two branches of the mighty Mekong River.

In each civil war, every protagonist constructed its own legitimacy, heroes, villains, and created it own victims. The Tây Sơn rebels may be viewed as a force that, in the late 18th century, broke the old order, unified much of the country under their rule, and defeated a foreign invasion; Prince Nguyễn Ánh, who defeated the Tây Sơn to establish his own Nguyen Dynasty, may be viewed as the ruler who completed the territorial unification of the country while opening the door for an increasingly conservative dynasty to reign from the city of Hue in Central Vietnam. Neither side consisted only of light or darkness. Nguyễn Huệ of the Tây Sơn defeated the Qing forces in the north, but the Tây Sơn army also devastated Gia Định in the south; Nguyễn Ánh relied upon foreign assistance to help him defeat the Tây Sơn, but this alone cannot erase him from the history of national construction.

This was not yet an ideological division in the twentieth-century sense, but it already put in place the prehistory of a binary habit: the victor turning himself into the sole legitimate historical current, while the defeated were expelled from authorized memory. When history is told only in the language of the victorious, a people loses not merely the truth of the defeated side, but also the ability to understand itself in full. Excluded memories do not disappear; they survive within families, regions, and communities that carry forward a sense of dispossession.

What this episode of the recurring cycle produced was an expanded national territory, the development of trade, and a Vietnamese identity that became regionally diverse and so complex. What it cost was human life, social trust, and the ability to build a form of legitimacy recognized by multiple communities. Endurance through division preserved a common territorial space, but it could not by itself heal the wounds inflicted by Vietnamese upon one another. Those fractures would reappear in different forms in the twentieth century.

4. The Nguyễn Dynasty and the Colonial Period: Unification, Delayed Reform, and the Reception of Modernity

The Nguyễn dynasty organized a unified state across an extensive territory, completed its administrative system, and sought to establish sovereignty. The nineteenth century for Vietnamese cannot be understood merely through use of the label “reactionary,” because the ruling dynasty had to govern a country needing discipline due to its having emerged from a prolonged civil war, weakened by deep regional differences, and facing unprecedented external pressures.

Yet as the world entered the age of industrialization and colonialism, the Hue royal court turned strongly towards Neo-Confucian orthodoxy, using old Chinese categories of thought to interpret an entirely new balance of power with the arrival of French expansionists. What had once helped organize the state and consolidate order was no longer sufficient to identify the nature of the new challenge. Vietnam faced not merely a stronger army, but an entire new civilizational system driven by science, industry, trade, maritime power, and a type of state capable of mobilizing resources on a scale far beyond that achieved by traditional Asian dynasties.

Nguyễn Trường Tộ represented a notable “counter-history”—a possible response for Vietnam that was proposed  but never realized. Through The Great Tendency of the World, the Eight Urgent Proposals, and dozens of other petitions, he did not merely recommend purchasing machinery or learning Western techniques. He sought to change education, the recruitment and use of talent, administrative organization, the economy, the legal order, and the Vietnamese understanding of the world. He understood that preserving the country required, first of all, recognizing how profoundly the world had changed.

This tragedy cannot be reduced to the story of a genius rejected by ignorant men. The court lacked the money and the capacity for implementation; the bureaucracy defended established interests; wounded national pride turned into cultural defensiveness; Nguyễn Trường Tộ’s Catholic identity and personal connections aroused suspicion. More fundamentally, Vietnam lacked a reform coalition powerful enough to establish priorities, gather talent, and transform knowledge of the future into a national program.  

Perceiving the danger was not enough. There also had to be institutions capable of listening to those who perceived it. No Meiji restoration came to the rescue of the Vietnamese.

Like Vietnam, in the 1860s Japan also lacked capital, faced pressure from the West, and was constrained by an old intellectual order. Yet the Meiji leadership created a reform coalition, accepted the dismantling of many privileges, and directed scarce resources according to the priority of building “a rich country and a strong army.” This comparison is not intended to idealize Japan’s path, still less to condemn the Vietnamese as an inferior people. It simply reveals the system advantage that comes from having a few individuals who could see the future and possessing a structure of power capable of using them.

The capacity that had once permitted the stability of the Nguyễn dynasty hardened into a limitation on its prospects  at precisely the moment when national survival required another kind of envisioning and organizing. This is a characteristic example of the paradox of Endurance: what once helped a community preserve order may obstruct its ability to renew itself when renewal becomes necessary; national pride that once protected identity may become a refusal to acknowledge the arrival of a new reality; loyalty to tradition may become a fear of admitting that tradition can no longer provide good answers for how best to respond to a new situation.

French colonial rule brought forth for Vietnamese a period of lost sovereignty, colonial exploitation, and racial stratification. Every discussion of the impacts and effects of that French “civilizing mission”  to enlighten and uplift the Vietnamese must begin with that reality of coercion.

Yet the impress of Colonial rule was not unidirectional. Cities, the press, the Romanized Vietnamese script, new schools, laws, science, and global trade created channels of modernization that the Vietnamese actively appropriated in order to better resist the colonial regime itself. Instruments introduced to facilitate colonial rule gradually became means for the formation of a new public, a new political language, and new ways of imagining the nation.

Phan Châu Trinh placed the advancement of popular knowledge and the development of social capacity as the first priority in reasserting national self-governance before the direct use of violence. Phan Bội Châu sought national salvation through the Đông Du movement and connections with other Asian cultures. Phạm Quỳnh saw the Vietnamese language as the repository of the national soul which could use it to survive and outlast the French intrusion in another instance of the Vietnamese capacity for Endurance.. The Đông Kinh Free School, the Duy Tân movement, the printed press, and modern literatur created an unprecedented and very modern space for public discussion. Ideas concerning citizens’ rights, the nation, science, education, and the role of the individual began entering social life, opening competing possibilities for Vietnam’s future.

The “golden generation” of Western-educated Vietnamese intellectuals did not share a single political orientation. Some followed nationalism, some chose communism, and others served different governments; many placed patriotism and the aspiration for modernization above loyalty to any single doctrine. This multivectorism must be recovered for Vietnam to prosper in the twenty-first century.

Tạ Quang Bửu provides a verifiable example: he participated in the revolution against French colonial rule from August 1945 but did not join the Communist Party until July 1947. A single example cannot support a generalization about an entire generation, but it is sufficient to prevent us from equating patriotic motivation with a pre-existing ideological conversion. For many intellectuals of the period, the nation was the point of departure; doctrine was a path chosen in its service.

What the period of Western colonialism produced was a modern language, a new intellectual class, the capacity for global communication, and new ideas of citizens’ rights, nationhood, and science. What it cost the Vietnamese was sovereignty, resources, human lives, and the opportunity for autonomous development. These two dimensions do not cancel one another out. Civilization did not prevent the oppressive nature of colonialism; but oppression could not entirely forestall the growth of creative capacities among the colonized.

The deeper lesson is that external knowledge generates an internal capacity only when the Vietnamese appropriate it, debate it, and translate it into the language of needs that they themselves define. Not everything introduced from abroad represents progress; neither does every foreign influence threaten national identity. The decisive question is whether the community possesses sufficient autonomy to select, transform, and use it.

5. From 1945 to the Present: Revolution and Counter-Revolution, Two Vietnams, and Remembered Experiences Yet to Be Reconciled

The August 1945 Revolution against the return of French governance mobilized an aspiration for independence that extended far beyond the communist constituency. During the following decades of war, communism provided organization, discipline, and an appealing vision of equality. Yet along with Cold War polarization, domestic repression, land reform, ideological control, and political monopoly, Communism also produced profound wounds.

The story of this period cannot be told monochromatically as a victorious resistance against foreign invasion. Nor can it be reduced to the story of a society subjected entirely to one-party coercion. Patriotism, revolutionary faith, organizational power, the intervention of great powers, and fear were all present. History becomes difficult to understand precisely because very different motivations could bring people into the same ranks, while people sharing the same patriotism were driven onto opposing sides.

During the thirty years from 1945 to 1975, the Vietnamese were not fighting a single war. At least four wars overlapped: the struggle for independence from colonial rule; the conflict between competing national projects; the ideological war embedded in the structure of the Cold War; and a conflict fought among international powers on Vietnamese territory.

If any one of these four dimensions is absolutized, history is denied. To describe the entire conflict only as a “war of national resistance” obscures the moral and civilizational conflict among the Vietnamese themselves. To call it solely a “civil war” diminishes the powerful aspiration for independence and the scale of conflict associated with great-power interventions and subventions. To characterize it entirely as a proxy war denies the agency, responsibility, and choices of the Vietnamese forces themselves. A mature reading must be broad enough to weave these difficult truths together.

The Republic of Vietnam governing from Saigon must be studied as a legitimate chapter in Vietnam’s history of modernization. It left memorable experiences in education, the press, law, the market economy, and international engagement; at the same time, it could not divorce itself from political instability, external dependence, war in the villages, and considerable limits on democratic processes. Military defeat does not erase the value of studying that very Vietnamese experience. The Saigon government in its own way was an expression of Vietnamese Endurance. Excluding the Republic of Vietnam from learned history impoverishes the common memory and prolongs the feeling among millions of people that their symbolic homeland has been taken from them.

South Vietnam itself contained many currents and cannot be reduced to a singularity of “puppets” or “nationalists.” Some opposed communism as a very intentional political choice; some staked their hopes on building a non-communist democracy; some joined peace movements or Third Force groups, or opposed foreign intervention; others were simply trying to protect their families in wartime.

Neither was North Vietnam a completely homogeneous political entity. Differences existed within the Communist Party concerning policy, the degree of international dependence, and the conduct of the war. Outside the Party, patriotism, revolutionary loyalty, fear of power, and the instinct for survival existed in society. A person could sincerely sacrifice for independence without fully understanding the apparatus he or she served; another could use an ideal just as a means to acquire power.

The histories of the two post 1954 Vietnams therefore cannot be reduced to a simple story of patriots on one side and traitors on the other, of complete autonomy versus complete dependence, or of absolute justice versus absolute injustice. Both sides were affected by great powers; both included people who sacrificed for what they believed to be the national interest; both committed errors, engaged in coercion, and contained unrealized possibilities. Realizing this does not mean distributing responsibility equally or erasing differences. It only restores to history its inherent complexity.

After 1975, Vietnam was unified territorially but its various memories were not reconciled. The transformation of private commerce, re-education camps, the exodus of boat people, the command economy, and the system of privileging certain political family backgrounds left a deep divide between victors and defeated, and between those in Vietnam and those overseas. The victors held unilateral power to authoritatively define the past, but they had no power to make the private memories of the defeated disappear from history.

Administrative centralization did not automatically become a unification of hearts. Military victory did not automatically produce national reconciliation.

The reforms of 1986 then opened an important door. Economic reality forced ideology to retreat; individual initiative, the household economy, and international integration were gradually restored. Farmers, household businesses, enterprises, and social networks released some of the capacities that had previously been constrained. The reforms demonstrated that Vietnamese society could recover rapidly when initiative was returned to the people. They also showed that solutions previously condemned as ideologically wrong could become paths to national rescue when reality could no longer be denied.

Yet market reform was not accompanied by a corresponding reform of governing power providing for the rule of law and accountability for officialdom. Economic growth, however, created a middle class and new resources, but it also generated inequality, crony capitalism, environmental destruction, and insecurity among workers. When the market is opened but regulatory power remains off-limits to citizens, initiative and agency may be liberated in the economy while continuing to be restricted in politics and intellectual life.

The development of overseas Vietnamese communities, the internet, smartphones, artificial intelligence, and Generation Z is now extending the Vietnamese space beyond national borders and the state’s monopoly over information. Ordinary people possess unprecedented capacities to learn, speak, create, and connect, but they must also confront surveillance, disinformation, and increasingly sophisticated forms of manipulation. The state is no longer the only actor capable of producing and disseminating knowledge; yet society does not automatically become wiser merely because more information is available.  All this shows Vietnamese Endurance, once again, adapting, repositioning, and overcoming.

Modern day Maturation for Vietnamese is therefore not an outcome already achieved. It is an ongoing undertaking: integrating the memories of the two Vietnams without equalizing responsibility; recognizing overseas Vietnamese as part of the national community; giving younger generations the right to participate; and building institutions through which society can detect and correct obvious errors without waiting for a crisis to destabilize elite practices

After many repetitive cycles of repression followed by Openings Up, the question is no longer merely how the Vietnamese have survived the centuries. The more important question now is how far the capacities that have enabled Vietnam to survive can carry the nation.

CONCLUDING NOTE TO PART I

Looking back across these historical cycles, there is no formula according to which “a people oppressed for long enough will automatically open itself.” Challenges may generate solidarity, but they may also generate fear; acculturation under pressure may expand a culture, but it may also produce dependence; centralized power may rescue a community in times of upheaval, but it may also suffocate creativity when it becomes the normal condition.

History does not automatically transform suffering into wisdom. A people may endure for a very long time while continuing to repeat old cycles of suffering under new names.

Endurance is therefore not a capability, which, once possessed, keeps on serving a people’s deepest needs as circumstances for them change. Every age poses a different question of survival. When the principal danger is foreign invasion, the capacity to contract, disperse, and then reunite may save the community. But when the danger lies in stagnation itself, in technological dependence, in the exhaustion of public trust, and in a structure of power incapable of correcting itself, old methods of survival may no longer be sufficient and may even become obstacles to finding happiness.

Only when memory is subjected to reflection, knowledge encounters institutions, and power accepts limits can the experience of Endurance become the starting point for Maturation. The past then ceases to be either a burden to be carried or a glory to be worshiped; it becomes a repository of experience out of which paths to the future may be thoughtfully chosen.

The history examined in this part has identified the sources, turning points, and wounds of Vietnam’s journey from Endurance to now having a chance for Maturation to bring about its good works. The next part of this essay will examine more deeply the capacity for Endurance itself: what created the exceptional resilience of the Vietnamese people, and why the resilience that once saved them may sometimes become a limitation preventing them from moving toward Opening.

July 2026 Pegasus Now Available!

A little belatedly, here’s July Pegasus.

This issue commemorates our 40th anniversary.

To mark the occasion, various people who have been affiliated with us throughout the years offer their thoughts and reflections. We also include some archival documents, with short summaries.

We conclude with a piece from Michael Hartoonian on life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

I would be most interested in your thoughts and feedback.

Democratic Socialists of America: The Manifesto. Please Join Us for Lunch September 10

The Democratic Socialists of America recently released their manifesto, which you can read here.

These new American socialists are getting a lot of attention and winning elections with their unhappiness and their ideas for a better, “take-care-of-me-please” society and economy.

So, how does their manifesto compare to the Caux Round Table Principles for Business?

Please join us for an in-person round table over lunch at noon on Thursday, September 10, in Landmark Center to share your thoughts and reactions and what you think it means for our future.

Cost to attend is $20, which you can pay at the door.

To register, please email jed@cauxroundtable.net.

Relatedly, I recently shared mine in a piece for American Greatness.  The August issue of Pegasus will also touch on this.

The discussion will last between an hour and hour and a half.

AI and the New Humanity: Please Join Us August 27 on Zoom

One can say with some certainty that socialization drives human motivations, success and failures and that socialization is driven by one’s relationship to technology.  Fire was a technology.  Planting grain was a technology.  Making blades from stone was a technology. Putting a string to a pliable stick to make a bow was a technology.  Smelting metal tools from ore was a technology.  Alphabets were a technology.  For Adam Smith, the “factory” was a technology that permitted creation of the “wealth” of nations.  AI is also a technology.

What if the socialization coming from the use of AI is learned helplessness, other-directed personalities with no sense of meaning in life and an inability to commit and the evaporation of personal agency – all resulting from dependency on what the AI algorithms tell us to do and what to believe?

Mark Zuckeberg’s recent essay reveals Zuckerberg’s anxieties – what is he giving us?

There is the story of Jesus on the mountain top with Satan as a caution about technology.

Satan took him to a very high mountain and showed him all the kingdoms of the world and their splendor.   “All this I will give you,” he said, “if you will bow down and worship me.” (One can think of what Satan offered as highly functional human technologies.)

Jesus said to him, “Away from me, Satan!  For it is written: Worship the Lord your God and serve him only.”  Then Satan left him and angels came and attended him.

Please join us at 9:00 am (CDT) on Thursday, August 27 on Zoom for a round table discussion of AI and share your optimisms and your concerns.

To register, please email jed@cauxroundtable.net.

Event will last about an hour.

Jesus, Confucius and Adam Smith on Moneyism

A conversation with two of our board members on moneyism as not moral capitalism brought to my mind the New Testament account of Jesus throwing the money changers out of the temple.

Here is a bit of background on the implications of that story for helping us distinguish moneyism from capitalism, with supporting advice from Confucius and Adam Smith.

Fiduciary Responsibilities of Governments: AI and Nuclear Weapons

Our colleague at the Vatican, His Eminence Cardinal Silvano Tomasi, who has given decisive leadership to our study of the Prophet Muhammad to respect and protect Christians and Jews, helped organize a meeting of the Global Nobel Laureates Assembly in Rome to consider the responsibilities of government in minimizing the dysfunctional harms associated with AI and terminating the threat to humanity of nuclear weapons.

The statement that came out of the meeting aligns with the Caux Round Table’s Principles for Government that government derives its legitimacy from meeting its duties of being entrusted with public power for the good of the community.

Who Is Behind Vietnam’s “Red Guards” And Why?

Professor Stephen B. Young, JD

Global Executive Director

The Caux Round Table for Moral Capitalism

Political denunciations continue to spread, despite Directive No. 07 and even the Party leader’s public advocacy of intellectual openness. If this divisiveness is merely the spontaneous personal extremism of a few unsettled, reactionary, Vietnamese “Red Guards,” why have they been able to make one attach after another  without being restrained? Who is helping  them? Is there a mastermind with an agenda for Vietnam behind them? 

The Roman patriot Marcus Tullius Cicero taught us to always ask: “Cui bono?” – who benefits?

The Vietnamese people will not benefit from accusations and intimidation; they will not benefit from economic stagnation or for falling behind other countries in technology and AI

But who might benefit when the descendants of Lac Long Quan and Au Cu are subjected to a seemingly endless war of one against another?

One thousand years slaves to Chinese thieves

One hundred years under French domination

Twenty years this war day after day

Our Mothers’ legacy – a forest of dried bones

Our Mothers’ legacy – a mountainous graveyard

– Trinh Cong Son

1. When a Book Becomes a Battlefield

The denunciations starting with criticism of the book Conversations with Thanh (Chuyện với Thanh) have ceased to be a literary controversy. They have become a testing of the balance of power within Vietnam’s political system. Beginning with several passages in the book, the attacks quickly expanded to encompass the author, the publisher, newspapers, writers and artists, as well as those suspected of having sponsored or protected the work.

Yet another “literary inquisition” has been opened—following dozens of similar cases in this long-suffering country. But books themselves do not appear to be the ultimate target of the protests. No; something more profoundly Vietnamese is under attack.

After Conversations with Thanh, the investigation of deviations spread to older works, competing interpretations of history and even officially recognized literary institutions. Nguyễn Quang Thiều, President of the Vietnam Writers’ Association, also became a target. The debate was no longer about whether this or that work was good or bad, or which facts were correct or incorrect. Instead, the accusers wanted to know which side the author supported and who was “standing behind” him.

This is the commonplace strategy of every political denunciation campaign: instead of refuting an idea, one criminalizes the author’s motives; instead of discussing the truth, one tests his loyalty. It’s a simple-minded use of ad hominem arguments – arguments which can prove nothing but which use words just to separate one from another.

Gustave Le Bon observed that building a civilization requires creative minds, while destroying one needs only an agitated crowd. Such a crowd need not fully understand what it claims to defend. It needs only be given an enemy, a slogan and the conviction that it embodies righteousness.  This is the use of infantile emotions, not adult rationality.

Today’s Vietnamese “Red Guards” need neither red armbands nor copies of Mao’s Little Red Book. They use Facebook, TikTok, YouTube and politically guided forums. Yet their basic method remains unchanged from that Chinese precedent: remove a sentence from its context, attribute a political motive, invent a “traitor” and mobilize a crowd to execute that person’s reputation.

What is particularly striking is that this campaign has continued even after the Politburo issued Directive No. 07 to strengthen discipline, regulate public statements and curb manifestations of political arrogance within the system. One might have expected a Politburo directive would have been sufficient to make even the most extreme partisans retreat. Instead, the opposite appears to have occurred: new fronts in the denunciation campaign continue to be opened.

Who, then, has given Vietnam’s new “Red Guards” such confidence—and such arrogance?

2. When Even the Party Leader Is Being Muzzled

General Secretary and President Tô Lâm has repeatedly spoken of liberal education, science and technology, intellectual renewal and a new “era of national resurgence.” Yet while he speaks of openness, Vietnam’s intellectual space is being constricted. While he calls for renewal, works offering interpretations of history different from the official narrative are subjected to public denunciation.

This disobedience can no longer be dismissed as a handful of isolated . It suggests that there may be forces openly obstructing—or even muzzling—the messages of the Party’s own leader.

If the participants in these campaigns were merely a few hundred self-mobilized “red bulls”—Vietnamese slang for aggressive online ultra-nationalists—they would hardly be able to open one front after another, drawing in newspapers, mass organizations, and patronage networks  without encountering a decisive institutional response. It would be even harder to explain why Directive No. 07 has failed to halt this “red tide.”

Who stands behind them? Who gives them direction, provides their platforms and guarantees their political safety? Why do they believe they have the authority to pass judgment on official institutions, senior cadres and established writers and artists? And why has a General Secretary and President who has accumulated power to a degree rarely seen in modern Vietnam been unable—or unwilling—to make them stop?

The very necessity of asking these questions suggests that Tô Lâm’s power is less than it appears.

He may control many offices, but that does not necessarily mean that he can master all the differing networks of power embedded within his regime. These networks of individuals have developed over many decades, incorporating members of the propaganda apparatus, military, police, mass organizations, politically connected businesses and foreign relationships, collegial networks which do not appear  on any official organization chart.

Nor can one exclude the possibility that Tô Lâm once sought to use conservative tendencies within the regime to eliminate rivals and consolidate his own power. Once released from their restraints, however, these factions may have developed a momentum of their own, eventually even seeking to limit even the agenda which the General Secretary claims as his own, adopted in order to bring the Vietnamese people into a ‘new era”.

3. Who Benefits When stilled waters are Stirred Up?

In every political crisis, the most important question is not merely who started it, but who benefits from it.

The Vietnamese people certainly do not. While society is drawn into bitter arguments over a sentence in a book, the problems affecting daily life are pushed out of the public debate: economic hardship, exhausted businesses, a stagnant property sector, unemployment, the deteriorating quality of education and healthcare, fines exceeding the financial capacity of many families and an administrative apparatus that, despite being streamlined, has in some places become even more burdensome.

Writers and artists do not benefit either. A society in which every author must wonder which sentence might be extracted and used as evidence against him cannot produce great works. If an artist cannot speak the truth, he can at least refuse to participate in telling lies. In an atmosphere of political denunciation, however, even silence can be interpreted as a political position.

In the long run, the regime itself does not benefit. When loyalty replaces competence, informing replaces criticism and the crowd replaces the rule of law, the system loses its ability to correct its own mistakes. The “bacteria” described by Le Bon as eating away at a civilization cannot infect a healthy organism; they flourish only after such a communal body has been weakened from within.

But an external power that wants Vietnam to remain unstable, incapable of meaningful reform and unable to build a new national consensus, would benefit enormously from divisiveness which Vietnamese would impose on themselves.

Such a power would not need to create every denunciation campaign directly. It would need only to exploit existing divisions, magnify fears and resentments, encourage those discomfited by change and encourage such factions to believe that each is rightly fighting to save the status quo which they esteem or which protects them.

A country consumed by fighting a “spiritualized” civil war will lack the intellectual capacity to look outward and towards the future. A nation that continues to argue over the victors and the vanquished of half a century ago will find it difficult to formulate a strategy for the next half-century. And a leadership forced constantly to contain internal conflicts will struggle to pursue a genuinely independent foreign policy.

There is no need to name that external power. One need only look at the compass and ask: Who has always preferred a Vietnam that does not collapse, but remains neither strong enough nor sufficiently united to escape its orbit?

Three historical events deserve attention.

First, according to my Father who was there as a senior American diplomat, in 1954 at the Geneva Conference on ending France’s colonial war in Indochina, the decision to divide Vietnam into two potentially warring states was proposed by Beijing and then accepted by Paris.

Second, according to my friends, colleagues of South Vietnamese Ambassador Nguyen Van Kieu in Taipei, in early 1975, as North Vietnamese troops were advancing south towards Saigon, Ambassador Kieu forward to his brother, South Vietnam’s President Nguyen Van Thieu a proposal from Beijing. Beijing promised that, if Thieu should terminate South Vietnam’s alliance with the United States, China would then come to the defense of South Vietnam  and oppose Hanoi’s invasion. Thieu refused the offer.

Third, also in 1975, on April 30, according to scholar George J. Veith, retired French Major General Paul Vanuxem met South Vietnamese President Dương Văn Minh at Independence Palace and urged him to hold out for at least another twenty-four hours, publicly break with the United States and seek Chinese protection. According to several witnesses present at the meeting, Vanuxem suggested that China would pressure Hanoi to accept a ceasefire and might intervene militarily.

Veith also cites former South Vietnamese diplomat Nguyễn Xuân Phong, who claimed that Beijing’s proposed “muscle” would consist initially of two Chinese airborne divisions landing at Biên Hòa under the cover of a French-led international force. 

(“China and the Fall of South Vietnam: The Last Great Secret of the Vietnam War,” published by the Wilson Center’s History and Public Policy Program on February 9, 2022)

4. Two Faces of a Single Strategy

The unexplained sinking of the Vietnamese flagged boat Khôi Nguyên 18 near Fiery Cross Reef in the South China Sea offers a revealing example of a bifurcated strategy. 

In a humanitarian intervention, Chinese naval personnel rapidly rescued most of the Vietnamese crew. This service  demonstrated that China was truly a great power capable of reaching the scene most rapidly and maintaining a permanent presence around Fiery Cross Reef.

This display of “kindness” towards Vietnamese in distress contrasts with China’s conduct toward the Philippines: the use of water cannons, dangerous collisions, the obstruction of resupply missions and intimidation of Filipino fishermen. These two forms of conduct may appear inconsistent, but they might be two faces of a single strategy of projecting power to achieve political ends.

The Philippines openly aligns itself with the United States and protests China’s coercive behavior towards its territories in the South China Sea; it must therefore be disciplined by China. On the other hand, China bestows on Vietnam simultaneous applications of courtship and enticement, but also intimidation, because Beijing does not want to push Hanoi completely into Washington’s embrace.

One country is shown the price to be imposed for disobedience. The other is reminded of the supposed benefits of remaining subordinate to China’s influence.  In Vietnam’s case the proffered blandishments are made available to Vietnamese who might be tempted to take advantage of them.

5. Two Spearheads and an Invisible Hand

In the present conflict, the propaganda apparatus and some admirers of military leaders such as Lieutenant General Hoang Kien and Major General Nguyen Thanh Tuan have emerged as the two most visible spearheads promoting systemic destabilization in Vietnam

The propaganda apparatus claims a form of social capital – the authority to define orthodoxy: which account of history is correct, who qualifies as a patriot, which works are “deviant” and which ideas carry the danger of “self-evolution.” Elements of veterans’ organizations possess a different form of symbolic capital: moral credit for suffering the sacrifices of war and the political legitimacy that comes with victory.

When these two sources of cultural power combine, an innocuous literary debate can immediately be transformed into a political prosecution. The questions quickly become no longer wherein a work may be right or wrong, but to which faction does the author belongs, whether he has insulted the past, and who authorized the work to appear.

There is no public evidence proving that these forces are receiving direct instructions from abroad. But strategic influence does not necessarily operate through overt contractual commitments. It can travel abroad, carried by ties of ideological affinity, personal relationships, drawn in by factional interests and the instinct for self-preservation among those who fear losing their status if the country reforms.

The invisible hand behind the campaign need not control every piece on the chessboard of protests. It need only ensure that the competition works in its favor.

The propaganda apparatus defends its monopoly over truth. The ultra-nationalist groups defend an interpretation of history that sustains their political status. The “red bulls” discover a sense of power through denunciation. Political factions use literary inquisitions to identify and eliminate their opponents.

Their motives may differ, but the consequences converge: society is divided, reform is obstructed, Tô Lâm is kept in a state of continual political confrontation and Vietnam remains caged within an ideological orbit embracing some of its people but originating abroad.

6. One Directive No. 07 Is Still Not Enough

Directive No. 07 may regulate public statements, restore discipline and temporarily silence certain individuals. But an administrative directive cannot cure dysfunctions bred by the structure of power itself.

To end political arrogance of some over others, monopoly over what is true must first be abandoned. To prevent denunciation campaigns, the right to debate must be protected. To neutralize external influence, Vietnam must build transparent institutions in which no factional network can invoke patriotism to silence others.

The most dangerous hand is not necessarily one openly reaching in from outside. More dangerous is the hand that, out of public view, has found other hands inside the country willing to act on its behalf.

When that happens, an order to foment dissent does not need to cross a border; a campaign does not need to carry a foreign name; and Vietnamese citizens can still invoke patriotism while helping others keep their own country trapped forever in a stagnant waters.

It appears that one Directive No. 07 is still not enough.

But how many more directives will this nation need before it realizes that the problem lies not only with those stirring up a froth, but also with the stagnant pond that has long given them personal peace and prosperity?

And how much longer must this nation continue to suffer such damnation?

A Buddhist Take on Donald Trump

Two separate stories about Donald Trump in yesterday’s paper caught my attention.

First, the president is contesting a judicial decision – which is his right – to invalidate a contract he negotiated with his subordinates to give him favorable treatment under federal tax law and to send $1.8 billion of the American people’s money to his political loyalists.

Secondly, his private business – Truth Social, a website – started to charge money for those with money to get private notice of Trump’s posts on the site before they are published to the general public.  Since Trump has the public – not private – office of president of the United States, his website posts can move financial markets up or down.  Those market speculators – if they pay Trump – can now buy or sell securities before interest rates or the prices of securities can adjust to the new market guestimates of the future triggered by Trump’s posts.  Thus, the fee-paying speculators can beat the market and make good money quickly for themselves, all thanks to paying Trump for advance notice of market-making events.

This is, in essence, a form of trading on inside information, which is illegal under American securities law.

Yahweh, the God of the Hebrew Old Testament, did not like it when leaders took advantage of their positions to take care of themselves and not the people.  In Ezekiel 34, we read:

“Son of man, prophesy against the shepherds of Israel; prophesy, and say to them, … Thus says the Lord God: Ah, shepherds of Israel who have been feeding yourselves!  Should not shepherds feed the sheep? … Behold, I am against the shepherds, …”

What sort of a man is Trump who, seemingly, can’t be a good shepherd caring first and foremost for the well-being of the flock placed under his stewardship?

A Buddhist tradition provides clarity about his character.  Trump suffers from an affliction of emotions.  These are called “kleshas’ in Buddhism.  They are character defects arising from dysfunctional mindfulness.

Nine of the ten kleshas are:

1.     Greed
2.     Hatred
3.     Delusion
4.     Conceit
5.     Wrong views
6.     Doubt/uncertainty
7.     Restlessness
8.     Shamelessness
9.     Recklessness

Put all these personality characteristics in one person and you will have someone very much like Donald Trump.

The Dalai Lama teaches us how to ward off the kleshas and become better, happier people. According to Claude AI:

The Dalai Lama describes these afflicting emotions as mental states that disturb the mind’s peace and lead to suffering – for oneself and others.

The Dalai Lama frequently stresses that afflicting emotions are not intrinsic to the mind – they’re adventitious, meaning they arise from causes and conditions and can therefore be reduced or eliminated.  This is a message of hope: the mind’s basic nature is not anger or hatred, so these states can be unlearned.

He often teaches that you can oppose or work to dissolve an afflicting emotion (like anger) without rejecting the person who’s experiencing it – a distinction useful both in one’s own inner life and in relating to others.

In more contemporary talks and collaborations (like his conversations with psychologists such as Paul Ekman and Daniel Goleman), he’s translated these ideas into the language of “emotional hygiene” – the idea that just as we maintain physical hygiene, we can train the mind to recognize afflicting emotions as they arise, create space before reacting and gradually weaken their grip through sustained practice.

He teaches that reasoning and analysis – not just calming the mind – are essential tools. Investigating the emotion itself (where does anger come from? what is it actually pointing at?) can loosen its power over us.

An Aircraft Carrier, And A Sunken Ship: A Strategic Test For Vietnam’s Diplomacy?

By Dr. Dinh Hoang Thang (Fellow, The Caux Round Table)

• In today’s maritime disputes, strategic advantage no longer belongs to the country with the stronger legal right. Increasingly, it belongs to the country maintaining the more timely and sustained presence at sea.

• Today major powers ask not only which partner a country chooses, but also  how efficiently that country operates according to credible standards—and so whether it is worthy of long-term strategic trust.

[Dr. Dinh Hoang Thang, a retired Ambassador and former senior official of the Vietnamese Foreign Ministry, has kindly agreed to support the Caux Round Table’s initiative to consider the implications of Vietnam’s evolving enhancements in economic developments, civic dialogue, and administrative reforms. Ambassador Thang’s insights and understanding of strategic contexts are remarkable and provide practical guidance for all interested in the future of Vietnam and of Vietnamese/American reciprocal relationships of mutual benefit.]

 Introduction

Rarely has the South China Sea witnessed such a rapid succession of developments within such a short period of time.

Without any right under international law, China has once again unilaterally imposed its annual fishing ban across a vast expanse of the South China Sea. Encounters between Chinese maritime forces and Vietnamese fishermen continue to occur. 

Second, the Vietnamese transport vessel Khoi Nguyen 18 sank near the Spratly Islands. 

Third, the nuclear-powered American aircraft carrier USS George Washington arrived in Da Nang following joint operations with Japan and the Philippines. 

Fourth, at almost the same time, Washington increased commercial pressure on Hanoi through higher tariffs and stricter scrutiny of supply chains.

At first glance, these appear to be unrelated events. Taken together, however, they reveal a broader strategic reality: security, sovereignty, and economics are no longer separate policy domains. They have become increasingly intertwined in shaping Vietnam’s strategic environment.

 I. ARE TENSIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA JUST AD HOC AND INCIDENTAL OR IS COMPETION FOR MASTERY OF THOSE WATERS ENTERING A NEW STRATEGIC PHASE?

Viewed individually, each of the above developments might seem more or less accidental. Considered chronologically, however, they point to something more strategically significant. What is changing is not merely the frequency of incidents in the South China Sea, but the manner in which major powers are simultaneously employing military capabilities, economic leverage, and diplomatic influence to shape the strategic environment surrounding Vietnam.

Without open access to the entire South China Sea, what can Vietnam hope for in promoting its economy in the coming decades?

In the northern part of the South China Sea, China continues to enforce a unilateral fishing ban covering waters that Vietnam considers to fall within its exclusive economic zone and continental shelf under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). 

A detailed 1794 British navigation map of the South China Sea shows no land feature in the sea with a Chinese name while other features and cities are shown with Malay, Vietnamese or English names.

In 1837, Father Jean Louis Taberd wrote in the Journal of the Asiatic Society of Bengal that Gia Long, Emperor of Dai Viet in 1816 “went with solemnity to plant his flag and take formal possession of [the Paracel Islands}, which is not likely any body will dispute with him”

(The journal of the Asiatic Society of Bengal. Calcutta :Bishop’s College Press,1832-1936 v.6:pt.2=no.67-72 (1837): p. 745, https://www.biodiversitylibrary.org/item/123871)

Vietnam’s Fisheries Association has repeatedly protested these measures. Meanwhile, reports of Chinese maritime authorities confronting, expelling, assaulting, and confiscating fishing equipment from Vietnamese fishermen continue to emerge, reinforcing a persistent sense of insecurity among coastal communities that depend on these traditional fishing grounds for their livelihoods.

Against this backdrop, the sinking of Khoi Nguyen 18 near the Spratly Islands immediately attracted international attention. According to reporting by The New York Times, the vessel was supporting projects intended to strengthen Vietnam’s logistical presence in the Spratly archipelago. Vietnamese authorities have attributed the accident, at least preliminarily, to severe weather conditions. To date, no publicly available evidence justifies conclusions beyond those officially released.

Nevertheless, the fact that the incident occurred in close proximity to Chinese-controlled and heavily militarized features gives it significance extending well beyond that of an ordinary maritime accident.

Then, less than a week later, the USS George Washington Carrier Strike Group entered the South China Sea after concluding joint operations with Japan and the Philippines before making a port call in Da Nang.

Taken together, these developments suggest that the South China Sea is entering a new strategic phase  where military competition, geopolitical influence, and competing visions of regional order intersect.

II. AN AIRCRAFT CARRIER AND A SUNKEN SHIP

The arrival of USS George Washington in Da Nang was far more than a routine naval port visit. 

Before calling at Vietnam, the carrier strike group had conducted joint operations with Japan and the Philippines across the Western Pacific and the South China Sea. The strategic messages from Washington in making this naval deployment was unmistakable: the United States intends to maintain a sustained military presence in the Indo-Pacific while strengthening its network of regional partners in support of freedom of navigation and a rules-based maritime order and that the United States looks favorably on Vietnam’s right and ability to contribute to the sustainability of that freedom under a rules-based international order

For Vietnam, receiving another U.S. aircraft carrier demonstrates Hanoi’s continued commitment to expanding defense cooperation with a wide range of partners within its long-standing foreign policy of independence, self-reliance, diversification, and multilateralization. 

More significant than the visit itself, however, is the strategic context in which it occurred—immediately following a series of heightened tensions in the South China Sea and amid intensifying strategic competition among the major powers.

If USS George Washington symbolizes power projected from outside the region, the sinking of Khoi Nguyen 18 points to a very different strategic reality. Today’s competition in the South China Sea is measured not only by the number of warships deployed or diplomatic statements issued, but increasingly by a country’s capacity – say China’s – to maintain a continuous and effective presence on the ground—or, more precisely, at sea.

(Consider the analogous situation in the Strait of Hormuz – Iran’s capacity to maintain a continuous threat to freedom of navigation through the Strait)

According to publicly available information, Khoi Nguyen 18 sank near Fiery Cross Reef, close to one of China’s largest military installations in the Spratly Islands. Chinese authorities reported that they had rescued most of the crew, while Vietnam publicly expressed appreciation for the rescue operation. From a humanitarian perspective, saving lives at sea is a universal obligation that deserves recognition regardless of sovereignty disputes or political differences.

Yet beyond this humanitarian dimension lies a broader geopolitical reality. China’s ability to reach the accident site more rapidly than any other actor reflects something far more significant than an efficient rescue capability. It reflects the extensive military infrastructure, logistical support, coast guard assets, and maritime forces that Beijing has built over the past decade on the artificial islands under its control. That unilaterally imposed permanent hegemonic presence has fundamentally altered the operational realities in large parts of the South China Sea.

The strategic lesson to be learned from these recent events, therefore, lies not in speculation about why the Vietnamese vessel sank. Rather, it lies in what the incident reveals about the evolving nature of maritime competition. In contemporary territorial disputes, strategic advantage belongs not only to the side with the stronger legal claims under international law, but increasingly to the side capable of maintaining the most persistent presence, responding the fastest to events, and exercising the greatest degree of practical control over contested waters.

In this sense, USS George Washington and Khoi Nguyen 18 inadvertently illustrate two dimensions of the same strategic picture. One reflects the growing involvement of external powers in preserving the regional balance of power. The other demonstrates that competition for effective presence is unfolding every day in the disputed waters themselves.

Facing these two dynamics, Vietnam must respond to a challenge that extends beyond defending its sovereignty. The more difficult task is to strengthen its own maritime presence while ensuring that isolated incidents do not become catalysts for wider strategic confrontation among the major powers.

III. WASHINGTON’S DUAL MESSAGE

On the one hand, a focus on the visit of USS George Washington, might lead one to conclude that Washington is placing renewed emphasis on the military dimension of its relationship with Vietnam. Yet, on the other hand, when this deployment is considered alongside recent American policy developments in bilateral trade, a more comprehensive picture emerges. U.S. policy toward Vietnam is no longer operating on two separate tracks—security on one hand and economics on the other. Increasingly, the two have become integrated components of a single more comprehensive strategic framework.

From a security perspective, Washington’s message to officials in Hanoi and all other nations is relatively straightforward. As China continues to expand its military and maritime presence throughout the South China Sea, the United States seeks to demonstrate that it remains a decisive balancing power in the Indo-Pacific, with Freedom of navigation operations, expanded defense cooperation with Japan and the Philippines, and the port visit of USS George Washington, all reinforce Washington’s commitment to preserving a regional order based on international law, where both large and small states are entitled to exercise their lawful rights at sea.

At precisely the same time, however, the United States has been sending Hanoi a second—and arguably more consequential— bilateral message. Rather than focusing on naval deployments, this message concerns Vietnan’s domestic economic governance. Washington has intensified its scrutiny of Vietnamese exports through investigations into rules of origin, tariff circumvention, forced labor, and direct inspections of manufacturing facilities participating in global supply chains. Combined with recently announced tariff measures, these actions suggest that the United States is no longer evaluating Vietnam solely as a rapidly growing trading partner. Increasingly, it is assessing the comity, transparency, and credibility of Vietnam’s economic institutions.

At first glance, these two messages may appear contradictory. On the one hand, Washington is strengthening defense cooperation with Vietnam; on the other, it is imposing more self-interested economic conditionalities. However, In reality, they are mutually enforcing American national concerns – one military and the other economic.

The United States seeks a Vietnam that is sufficiently capable to contribute to a stable balance of power in Southeast Asia. At the same time, it also seeks a Vietnam that is sufficiently capable of meeting the standards regarded in Washington as essential for a long-term strategic partnership between the two peoples: transparent supply chains, compliance with international trade commitments, stronger regulatory governance, and reduced vulnerability to opaque production networks closely linked to China. In other words, Vietnam is being evaluated not only according to its geopolitical location and its regional responsibilities, but also according to the compatibility  of its development model with global standards today and with future advancements in the quality of goods and services, technologies, and openness of markets.

This more comprehensive American approach reflects an evolution in American strategic thinking. For many years, defense cooperation and economic cooperation were often treated as relatively separate policy domains. Today, that distinction is becoming increasingly blurred.  As Vietnam becomes more important to the United States – perhaps becoming A Comprehensive Strategic Partner, the country’s value to the United States will be judged not merely by the number of high-level exchanges or naval visits, but by its capacity to uphold predictable rules, safeguard the integrity of international commerce, ensure transparency in global supply chains, and adapt to the evolving norms governing the international economic system.

For Hanoi, therefore, the strategic test of national success extends well beyond skillfully balancing diplomatic relations among major powers. It increasingly depends upon Vietnam’s ability to undertake domestic reforms that correspond to an international environment undergoing profound transformation. In this context, diplomacy and institutional reform can no longer be viewed as separate agendas. A country’s international credibility is becoming inseparable from 1) the quality of its domestic governance as deployed in achieving excellent economic performance – and 2) from its capacity to translate international commitments into consistent national practice – to “walk its talk”.

Ultimately, in the twenty-first century, major powers are no longer asking only where a country stands on issues of the moment. They are also asking how well that country is governed, whether its institutions operate according to internationally credible standards, and whether it can be trusted as a reliable strategic partner over the long term.

Conclusion:

In his remarks ahead of the 33rd Diplomatic Conference, Foreign Minister Le Hoai Trung reaffirmed the implementation of Politburo Resolution No. 06-NQ/TW, emphasizing that Vietnam’s external relations and international integration must advance in close coordination with the country’s internal development. This formulation raises an intriguing possibility. Might Vietnam eventually move beyond a diplomacy centered primarily on balancing external relationships toward what could be described as “timely diplomacy”—a diplomacy capable not merely of adapting to geopolitical change, but of recognizing historical shifts early enough to shape national strategy accordingly?

For many years, Vietnam’s foreign policy has succeeded in preserving a delicate strategic balance among the contending major powers while steadily expanding the country’s international partnerships. That achievement has given Vietnam an important strategic asset—one that deserves to be preserved. Yet as competition among the major powers increasingly shifts away from direct military confrontation toward rivalry over technology, supply chains, trade standards, and the capacity to shape regional order, maintaining balance alone may no longer be sufficient to advance and protect the interests of the Vietnamese people.

If the phrase “bamboo diplomacy” is indeed appearing less frequently in Vietnam’s official discourse, the more significant question is not whether a slogan is fading, but whether Vietnamese diplomacy is gradually entering a new stage of strategic thinking. 

Recent developments—including the prominent participation of the newly appointed U.S. Ambassador at a high-level political event attended by Vietnam’s senior leadership—may be viewed as signals worth noting well. Even so, it would be premature to interpret such transactional episodes as evidence of a new foreign policy doctrine. In diplomacy, genuine strategic change is rarely announced overnight; it is revealed through the consistent accumulation of decisions, priorities, and policy behavior over time.

Such a strategic transformation for Vietnam, if it should emerge, would not abandon the principles that have guided Vietnam’s diplomacy for decades. Rather, it would represent their evolution. Strategic balance would remain essential, but it would no longer be the ultimate objective. The larger goal would be to anticipate structural changes in the international system, strengthen the nation’s long-term resilience, and expand Vietnam’s capacity to shape—not merely respond to—the external environment in ways that serve its enduring national interests.

Success in achieving that, perhaps, is the most consequential strategic test facing Hanoi today.