Article Two: Part II Resilient Continuity: Its Capacities And Limits

From Endurance to Opening: A New Path for the Vietnamese People”

  • Introduced by Professor Stephen B. Young, Global Executive Director of the Caux Round Table for Moral Capitalism; author The Tradition of Human Rights in China and Vietnam
  • Written by Former Ambassador Hoang Thang Dinh, Ph.D. in Political Science and Fellow of the Caux Round Table

What comes next for Vietnam in the twenty-first century?

ARTICLE TWO: PART II

RESILIENT CONTINUITY: ITS CAPACITIES AND LIMITS

Part I read Vietnamese history through recurring cycles of challenge, adaptation, and recovering sovereignty. Part II looks inside those cycles to examine the capacities that made each of their phases possible: what enabled the Vietnamese people repeatedly to contract without dissolving, to receive outside influences without wholly losing themselves, to disperse when in danger and then re-group when circumstances permitted?

Yet the most difficult questions lie in understanding the causes of those restorations.

Why would the very capacities that once enabled a people to survive later become limitations on its continued Maturation? Why have the Vietnamese often proved remarkably quick at overcoming immediate difficulties, yet less consistently successful at building durable institutions after a crisis has passed? Why has the capacity to absorb what is new repeatedly produced visible achievements in outlook and manners while deeper structures of power, social habits, and accumulated institutional capacities changed much more slowly?

If these limitations associated with modern Vietnamese resilient continuity are attributed only to war, colonialism, or the ideological choices of the twentieth century, the explanation of why Vietnam is what it today remains incomplete. Those events were immensely consequential, but they unfolded on the surface of an underlying historical foundation, one in which patterns of survival, forms of communal organization, relations with power, and ways of absorbing external influence had been taking shape for centuries.

Resilient Continuity must therefore be seen from two points of view: one recognizing the extraordinary vitalism of the Vietnamese down through history, the other recognizing the limitations that may have been preserved within that very vitality. A capacity that once enabled a community to survive a particular danger does not thereby become, automatically, a capacity for successful development when new  historical conditions present themselves.

6. The Paradox of Vietnamese Survival

Vietnamese Resilient Continuity was formed in response to many different challenges, not through a succession of identical intrusions or oppressions.

Centuries of Chinese rule exerted powerful assimilative pressure on Vietnamese, yet these pressures simultaneously made the family, the village, the language, and religious practices stalwart repositories of communal continuity. The years of an independent Đại Việt nation consolidated statehood, literary culture, and consciousness of sovereignty. The later Ming occupation, national restoration under the Lê, the southward expansion of Vietnamese rule, and successive civil wars, enlarged the national territory while also leaving violence, division, and dissimilar memories among different communities living under Vietnamese rule.

French colonialism destroyed Vietnamese sovereign authority, yet it also introduced cultural expressions that Vietnamese would later appropriate for their own purposes: the romanized national script, journalism, modern science and education, together with new vocabularies in which to think about nationhood and citizenship. The following era of anti-colonial revolution, war, partition into two governing regimes, reunification, and Đổi Mới economic reformation produced major achievements in independence, territorial unity, and economic development, while also leaving behind tangible and intangible wounds between Vietnamese, ruptures in social continuity, and memories that still remain incompletely reconciled.

There is no law of history by which a community necessarily matures in understanding and capability in optimal proportion to the pressures it has endured.

Challenge can stimulate creativity, but it can also circumscribe a society, distorting moral norms, and transmitting trauma from one generation to the next. A community does not necessarily mature in competence after catastrophe. It may merely learn how to live with catastrophe, carrying forward reflexes formed under conditions of danger into circumstances in which they are no longer necessary.

The gains made in each phase of every historical cycle must therefore be considered alongside the harms inflicted.

The Vietnamese people endured not because their every historical choice was correct, but because even after making wrong choices, defeats, and suffereing great harms, the community retained a capacity to reconstitute its integrity. That is the fundamental achievement of the Vietnamese over the centuries. 

 A paradox is that successful reconstitution may also preserve the very reflexes that allow crises to recur in different forms. One such reflex is the tendency to make too radical a break with the past, not learning the right lessons, whenever political power changes hands from one ruling elite to another

New dynasties traditionally strengthened their legitimacy by disparaging their predecessors. Victorious forces did not merely take control of the state; they sought to establish a new official history most favorable to them. The legacy of those who came before was consequently divided between what should be inherited and what must be rejected.

The mechanism of selective appropriation has appeared in different forms, from monarchical society to modern, Westernized, regimes.

The new can criticize the old while still standing upon part of what the old achieved.

In Vietnam, the recurring impulse to clear the board and begin again from ground zero has often meant that renewal of community came with a form of selective amnesia. The Nguyễn dynasty diminished the Tây Sơn; later Hanoi’s revolutionary historiography placed much of the legacy of the Republic of Vietnam outside the officially recognized national narrative.

When the victor obliges the country to reconstruct its history starting with its achievements, society may still recover from setbacks, but its capacity for accumulation of constructive points of view and risk tolerance is damaged.

To survive is to retain the possibility of beginning again. To recover with gracious maturity avoids having to begin again from zero.

The paradox contained within survivability can also be seen in the relationship between war and peace.

Under foreign invasion, concentrated authority, severe discipline, and the subordination of private interests become sources of collective strength. Yet the methods that can rescue a community in wartime do not naturally disappear when peace comes. An apparatus built for command may continue to govern through command though the war is over; secrecy that once protected a clandestine movement may become a means of shielding power in times of peace; dissent that was regarded as dangerous during war may continue to be viewed with suspicion through a national security lens in peacetime.

A community can defeat its enemies and still fail to overcome the necessary habits created during the struggle.

Resilient Continuity is therefore not an unqualified virtue, much less a fixed essence of Vietnamese identity. It is a collection of historically formed capacities which  may save a people under one set of conditions but constrain it under another.

To move towards a grand Opening Up of possibility today, Vietnam need not discard the inheritance left by surviving. It must distinguish within that inheritance what constitutes vitality worth preserving, what was a reflex that now must be transformed, and what is an injury that should not be transmitted into the next historical cycle.

7. Adaptation as a Civilizational Pattern

Arnold Toynbee interpreted the history of civilizations through the dialectic of “challenge and response.” A community does not grow simply because it overcomes difficulties; it grows when its response opens the way toward a higher level of civilization development.

Vietnamese experience suggests a recurrent pattern: bend without breaking, receive without accepting everything offered or imposed, withdraw into smaller units when the center is threatened, and reunite when opportunity returns.

This might be described as a rhythm of Consolidation and Dispersion — Tích and Tản.

Assets – human capital, social capital, economic, political – accumulate as conditions permit, scatter when the center weakens so that they are not destroyed and later re-converge hosted within a new structure of command and control. The rhythm of dispersal and then consolidation can be seen in villages, migration, guerrilla warfare, family networks, and, today, even among overseas Vietnamese communities.

When the state weakened, village society preserved part of communal life in the margins of official governance. When the centralized economy reached an impasse, families and informal networks sustained livelihoods. When the country was relatively closed and stagnant, Vietnamese abroad continued to construct networks of knowledge, finance, and international connection.

Thus, the center might fail while dispersed currents of life continued to flow.

This is a remarkable elasticity. Yet such adaptation to events always has two sides.

It enables people to live through an inhospitable environment; at the same time, it may reduce the pressure to transform that environment. People learn how to circumvent an unreasonable regulation rather than organize themselves to demand a better one; to rely upon personal connections rather than fair procedures; to transfer responsibility to the family rather than build institutions capable of protecting a wider common interest.

In dispersal, each individual may very well be acting entirely rationally to protect himself or herself. Yet the aggregate of millions of rational individual decisions can produce a society characterized by low trust and high costs of cooperation.

The familiar saying “Ở bầu thì tròn, ở ống thì dài” — roughly, to take the shape of the vessel in which one finds oneself — captures this adaptive capacity well. Under difficult conditions, it is survival intelligence. Once elevated into a permanent philosophy applied after the danger has evaporated, however, it can justify living without stable principles: speaking the language expected by each different power grouping, accommodating whoever has the whip hand, and above all preserving personal safety and advantage.

A bi-focal, inside/outside, existence easily develops from this pattern.

In official settings, people speak the permitted language; privately, they may think differently. A civil servant enforces a regulation he knows to be unreasonable; an intellectual writes what does not entirely correspond to what she believes; citizens comply outwardly while quietly devising ways to neutralize an order.

A society can adapt for a very long time to a political order in which the social space for expressing genuine belief cannot expand.

The ability to coexist with what is unreasonable can prevent immediate hardship, but it can also enable the unreasonable to survive much longer.

The same limitation appears in the modern Vietnamese reception of new ideas and practices.

Vietnamese society often learns quickly, applies techniques flexibly, and catches up rapidly in practical skills. Yet absorbing an accomplishment of modernity is not the same as absorbing the conditions that made that accomplishment possible.

A university can be built according to international models while its tolerance of academic freedom remains constrained. Modern techniques of administration can be imported without giving rise to corresponding structures of accountability. A market economy can expand without the simultaneous construction of a sufficiently strong rule of law and genuinely fair competition.

The new penetrates deeply enough to alter the surface, but not deeply enough to transform the society’s foundations and thus maximize the benefits so made available for years to come.

The problem, then, is not that the Vietnamese do not know how to learn.

Rather, for them learning has too often been driven only by the necessity of immediate response instead of by a long-term strategy of beneficial accumulation: learning in order to pass an examination, meet a target, fulfill a campaign, or catch up with the outside world — but not always learning in order to cultivate independent thought or generate new knowledge.

Đổi Mới in 1986 offers a national-scale example:

As the centrally planned economy entered profound crisis, individual initiative, household production, and market activity were permitted far greater room. Results appeared quickly, demonstrating the considerable vitality already present in society.

Yet reform focused primarily on the economy, while the structures of power, the rule of law, and the freedom to organize social entities evolved more slowly. The market was accepted as an instrument for generating growth, while many of the political and legal conditions that allow a market economy to become fair, innovative, and sustainable, developed far less fully.

That was adaptation. It was not transformation.

A rigid people cannot survive in a changing world. But real, effective, productive, systemic Opening Up requires adaptation to be elevated to another level: from finding a path to manage one’s way in an irrational environment to changing that environment together; from learning in order to catch up to learning in order to create; from flexibility toward circumstances to fidelity to principle combined with flexibility in method.

Resilient Continuity helps people find a way to live inside a narrow tube. Maturation – systemic Opening Up – requires them together to widen the tube.

8. Non-Absolutism: From the Strength of Synthesis to the Danger of Ambiguity

Vietnamese society has rarely carried any single system of thought to the final logical implications instructing us how best to live our lives. 

The Three Teachings — Confucianism, Buddhism, and Daoism — could coexist among Vietnamese. A person could worship ancestors, visit Buddhist temples, respect Confucian norms, maintain local religious practices, and absorb certain Western values without feeling compelled to choose only one of them as providing the absolute truth about heaven and earth and our fates in this life. Things that might appear contradictory in theory could coexist quite comfortably in personal practice.

This tendency toward non-absolutism has encouraged cultural absorption and everyday tolerance.

Vietnamese society has often been able to accept the new without immediately abandoning the old, to modify this or that behavior before reconstructing an integrated  holistic system of belief. This has generated considerable capacity for synthesis.

It also helps explain why imported ideologies, once in Vietnam, have been modified by the society that received them.

Confucianism never eliminated village religion; Buddhism coexisted with ancestor worship; Vietnamese Catholicism absorbed many expressions of local culture. Communism, while preserving Marxist-Leninist language within the official system, also combined in practice with nationalism, family structures, village psychology, and traditions of authority that had long predated its arrival from the West.

Even those speaking in the name of an absolute doctrine do not necessarily live by all its prescriptions.

A Party cadre might speak the vocabulary of class struggle while giving priority to the interests of his family. The state may maintain a socialist political identity while increasingly relying on markets, private enterprise, and integration into the global economy.

Doctrine can survive in language while practice quietly adjusts to the requirements of survival.

This produces a notable inconsistency.

An ideology does not necessarily disappear when belief in its theoretical propositions weakens. When people become accustomed to saying one thing but thinking another, while acting according to a third normative assumption, a political order may continue to function long after its original intellectual foundations have lost much of their persuasive force.

Ideology, once institutionalized, survives not through intermediation of belief alone. It survives through organization, interests, language, habits, and the self-interest of power structures.

What efficacy remains after an ideology loses its moral appeal may therefore prove more socially durable than the abstractions of that belief system. Habits of obedience, the distribution of privileges, the relationship between authority and official truth, or the expectation that decisions must descend from above, can persist even after the language that once justified them has lost much of its currency.

Non-absolutism, however, must not be confused with the absence of principle.

When it degenerates into “anything can be accepted,” it blurs the distinctions between tolerance and accommodation, flexibility and opportunism. One may respect beliefs different from one’s own, but tolerance cannot be invoked to excuse corruption, the denial of rights, violence, or systematic falsehood.

Nor does the idea of a “Middle Way” mean positioning oneself halfway between truth and falsehood or distributing responsibility equally simply to avoid having to judge. The Middle Way demands resistance to extremism in thought and action; it does not require the abandonment of moral discrimination.

Tolerance respects persons and differences within a zone of proportional morality and practical reason. It cannot become a tolerance without limits which therefore accepts even conduct that destroys human dignity. 

A new path for the Vietnamese people today must preserve their resilient capacity for synthesis, because a plural society cannot mature under monopolies of truth.

But a right-minded synthesis needs banks within which to flow: human dignity, truth, responsibility, the rule of law, and the right to dissent.

Without such boundaries, the current of synthesis can only lose momentum and become stagnant water wherein principle gradually dissolves into convenience.

The strength of the Vietnamese lies partly in the fact that they are not easily swallowed whole by a doctrine. Their limitation is that they do not always follow to the full the values they claim to have chosen.

The journey from Resilient Continuity to fully Opening Up must preserve capacities while overcoming limitations.

9. The Accumulated Sediments of Collective Consciousness

History does not stop in its tracks when an event ends.

It settles into language, symbols, habits, fears, and forms of tacit knowledge that people use without necessarily remembering their origins. These accumulations of experience may be called the sediments of a people’s collective consciousness.

Every generation receives such sediments from family, school, community, and state, and then transmits them — sometimes almost unchanged, sometimes partially transformed — to the next.

Sediments are not an immutable essence.

They are history that has entered into human consciousness and conscience.

The memory of Chinese domination nourishes Vietnamese vigilance toward China, while centuries of interaction also left a deep dependence upon written forms, classical references, and patterns of political organization originating in Chinese civilization.

The Vietnamese repeatedly resisted rule from the north, yet their state was also organized to incorporate many forms learned from that same neighboring civilization. This is not uniquely Vietnamese; civilizations often learn a great deal from their most powerful rivals.

In Vietnam’s case, however, the prolonged asymmetry produced a particular tension.

China was both a major source of civilizational learning and a recurrent threat to political autonomy. Vietnamese elites learned writing, classics, and techniques of statecraft from China while repeatedly asserting that Vietnam was not Chinese.

Vietnamese-Chinese relations have therefore long carried paired opposites: proximity and distance, reception and vigilance, admiration and resistance.

That tension has never entirely disappeared.

One of the deeper consequences of this long-standing tension may be that Vietnamese consciousness has often been highly sensitive to national independence without always connecting national independence equally strongly to the autonomy of individual citizens. A country may defend its political frontier while continuing to reproduce its own forms of hierarchy and obedience shaped by a much longer history.

The memory of war has left another double sediment.

On one side, it nurtures patriotism, endurance, sacrifice, and the capacity to mobilize society in the face of danger. On the other, it can reinforce the habit of dividing the world into “us” and “the enemy,” treating disagreement with “us” as a domestic threat and identifying unity of will as the only possible basis of national strength.

Military vocabulary consequently survives in peacetime life: “campaign,” “front,” “battle line,” “shock force,” “victory.”

When every problem is imagined as a battle, society tends to follow commands rather than seek dialogue, favors mobilization rather than participation, values victory rather than interim solutions that can be tested, corrected, and improved over time.

A person who disagrees with the method chosen to meet a particular need can then be treated as though he or she rejects the common good.

Another layer of sediment was produced during periods when political power reached deeply into social life but met with subtle non-compliance.

When public language diverges from private belief, outward compliance is easily accompanied by withdrawal from common responsibility. People learn what may be said, where it may be said, and to whom.  But acquiescence does not necessarily mean agreement. Applause does not necessarily mean approval.

Over time, this bi-modal existence undermined more than truth. It weakens trust between people. When no one is certain what others actually think, social cooperation becomes more difficult. Family and close relationships become safe spaces, while public life is treated as the domain of procedure, ritual language, and unnecessary risk.

For today’s Vietnamese, April 30, 1975 is one clear expression of a bi-furcated political memory.

Within the narrative of the victorious side, it is the day of liberation and reunification. In the experience of many former South Vietnamese and members of overseas communities, it is associated with collapse, reeducation, dispossession, escape by sea, and exile.

A historical event can carry profoundly different meanings depending on who is shaping the narrative, and no such meaning automatically disappears because one side possesses state power.

Maturation requires the creation of a space in which different memories can be expressed, tested against evidence, and allowed to coexist. Non-absolutism can contribute constructively here. Historical events must be investigated through evidence; memories of suffering also call for the capacity to listen.

Reconciliation cannot be achieved by demanding that people renounce and abandon their own narratives. 

To excavate historical sediments is neither to persecute one’s ancestors nor to apply contemporary standards simplistically to every decision made in the past. It is to bring forward unconscious reflexes so that a community can recognize what perceptions and feelings continue silently to influence the quality of its collective li.

Once recognized, the past can become an object of choice. When denied, it continues to govern the present from the shadows.

A people does not mature by forgetting what happened.

Rather, a people matures when formalized perceptions of the past no longer possesses absolute authority over what must happen next.

10. When the Advantages permitting Survival Become Limits on Development

A survival capability becomes a developmental limitation when a method that once worked in emergency conditions is transformed into the normal method of government.

Centralized authority can enable rapid mobilization during war but weaken initiative in peace. Secrecy may protect a persecuted organization but diminish transparency once that organization becomes the state. Discipline may prevent a movement from disintegrating but turn into the punishment of dissent if independent thinking is no longer tolerated.

A core capacity then hardens into a core rigidity.

Solidarity against foreign aggression is one of the clearest strengths in Vietnamese history. Yet once an external danger has passed, solidarity does not automatically become the capacity to live constructively with internal differences.

The Vietnamese may rally remarkably quickly in the presence of a common enemy, yet divisions can persist for generations when the immediate need becomes the distribution of power, interests, and responsibilities among themselves.

The Lê-Mạc conflict, the Trịnh-Nguyễn division, the Tây Sơn – Nguyễn Ánh rivalry, followed later by the ideological struggles of the twentieth century, all point toward a recurring problem among Vietnamese: the capacity to identify “us and the enemy” is extremely useful in war but becomes an obstacle when the supposed “other side” is also part of the national community.

The capacity for enduring is similarly double-edged.

It helps human beings survive poverty, war, and natural disasters, but it can also lead society to tolerate for too long conditions that might actually be changed for the betterment of the common good. A community accustomed to celebrating sacrifice can forget to ask why ordinary people must always be the ones who sacrifice, and whether better government might have prevented at least part of the suffering.

Endurance is a virtue when human beings face what cannot be changed.

It becomes a political problem when endurance is used for submission to the irresponsibilities of those who govern.

Vietnamese ingenuity and improvisation have also produced remarkable achievements. Under scarcity, people devised solutions with few resources; enterprises adapt quickly to changing circumstances; families invest intensely in the future of their children.

Yet when improvisation substitutes for beneficial institutions, a society comes to depend upon exceptions rather than rules.

Success may then belong to those who know how to find a way around the infirmities of the system, rather than flow to those who are most capable or who follow fair procedures.

Cleverness can defeat standards. Connections can replace law.

The 19th century case of Nguyễn Trường Tộ again reveals the distance between seeing the possibility of Opening Up and possessing the institutional capacity to bring about new approaches.

Vietnam has not lacked people capable of recognizing historical challenges. What it has often lacked are institutions able to listen to their voices, test their proposals, and accept recommended changes to established interests.

At such turning points, individuals sometimes emerge whom we might call hinge figures: they discern something of the logic of the coming age while still living and acting within institutions belonging to an age that is passing. Their tragedy does not necessarily lie in being always right, or even in failing. It lies in the distance between the capacity of certain individuals to recognize the need for change and the capacity of the system they serve to correct itself.

The same gap continues into modern history.

Many reform programs may set advanced objectives while recruitment systems, resource allocation, and mechanisms of accountability resist such changes. New ideas must pass through old networks of power; reform policies can themselves be reshaped to accommodate the structures that they were originally intended to change.

A policy failure therefore does not always demonstrate that the direction of reform was entirely mistaken. At times, an idea moving in the right direction passes through a mechanism incapable of implementing, testing, and correcting it, and the weaknesses of the implementing mechanism undermine the well-intentioned reform efforts.

Vietnam can therefore change very rapidly while transforming very slowly.

In the 1980s Đổi Mới generated rapid growth partly because it restored a measure of economic initiative to society. Yet when reform approaches directly affect the ordained structure of political power, the pace of change becomes much slower.

Whenever an older structure reaches its inherent limits, it may open up just far enough to absorb new resources and recover vitality. But if the forces that produced the original disappointments remain unchanged, a syncopated rhythm of Closing and Opening — Khép and Mở – risks repeating itself to perpetuate excessive institutional lassitude and economic stagnation.

A society must always be prepared to ask  whether what is accumulating within its parameters is sufficient to make the next opening up a productive transformation rather than just another interim adjustment.

Maturity arrives for a people only when their capacity to endure hardship becomes the capacity to prevent other avoidable hardships; when sacrifice is complemented by participation; when solidarity no longer requires uniformity of thought; and when flexibility operates within principles that cannot simply be bent whenever circumstances change or to favor the few at the expense of the many

What saved a people yesterday does not automatically carry that people into tomorrow.

11. Broken Accumulation and the Malady of Half-Learning

One recurring weakness occurring in Vietnamese history has been that the capacity to accumulate has not always generated the capacity to recover.

Transitions of power have repeatedly been accompanied by rewritten histories, replacement of elites, and excessive repudiation of the defeated side. The new does not merely correct the old; it often tries to demonstrate that little of value existed before itself.

Under the various family monarchies, a new dynasty could diminish the virtues of its predecessor in order to establish for itself legitimate receipt of a new Mandate from Heaven. Modern ideologies could take repudiation of past governments further by dividing history into progressive and reactionary eras, revolutionary and counterrevolutionary movements, inclusion in or exclusion from authoritative public memory.

The consequence of these re-conceptualizations is not merely injustice toward the past.

It impoverishes the present.

When a political order ends, administrative knowledge, law, education, and culture associated with that order can easily be discarded together with its political apparatus. Skilled people may be removed because of political background; archives and memories may be neglected; achievements of the defeated side may no longer be viewed as part of the common national inheritance.

The victor must then rebuild capacities that might instead have been inherited, corrected, and re-focused.

The treatment after 1975 of parts of the legacy of the Republic of Vietnam is one case worth reconsidering. Many professionals lost their positions or left the country, while experiences accumulated in education, law, administration, economics, and international engagement could not easily be assessed on its merits because it was associated with the delegitimized defeated government.

In 1975, Vietnam achieved territorial reunification while also losing part of its human capital and part of its accumulated memory — assets that a different process of reconciliation might have preserved.

Đổi Mới later restored or legitimized many elements that had previously been constrained or rejected: household production, markets, private business, relations with the West, and a greater role for expertise.

Yet this recovery was not always accompanied by a public mechanism for examining why the earlier choices had failed.

A society cannot fully learn necessary truths about reality if it cannot name its mistakes accurately.

And naming a mistake is only the beginning. The capacity for self-correction requires a fuller cycle: truth must be able to reach decision-makers; those who identify errors must have space to speak; responsibility must be traced beyond a convenient individual toward policies and mechanisms; and what has been learned must be translated into changes that make recurrence less likely.

A system may be highly capable of mobilization and still be weak at learning if success is routinely attributed to the system while failure is assigned mainly to individuals. Correction then becomes a matter of replacing people rather than repairing the conditions that produced the error.

Without the capacity to acknowledge error, there can be no genuine capacity to learn.

Incompetence in accumulation is closely connected with another recurring short-coming: half-learning.

Vietnam has repeatedly adopted the achievements of another civilization without fully absorbing the conditions that generated those achievements.

Confucian institutions were adopted to create an educated bureaucracy without a comparably developed tradition of independent disputation. Western technology was learned while freedom of thought remained more cautiously received. The Soviet model of organization was embraced without providing sufficient insulation from the dangers of concentrated power. A market economy was developed without a simultaneous maturation of the rule of law, transparent property rights, and genuinely equal competition.

Learning has often been more transactional and instrumental: take what is immediately useful while avoiding those elements which could not be smoothly synchronized with the deeper needs of the power structure.

Science is celebrated as an engine of development while academic freedom remains constrained. Digital transformation is accelerated while privacy and control over personal data lag behind. Artificial intelligence is embraced as an instrument of administrative efficiency even as it may also increase the technical capacity for surveillance.

The new is therefore invited inside while simultaneously being separated from some of its realities which are the very things which give it transformative force.

The old saying about taking the shape of one’s vessel now applies not only to individual behavior. It may become a national approach to imported models: adopt what satisfies an immediate need, modify what conflicts with existing arrangements, and then declare that the new global standard has been embraced.

The result can be modern institutions operated through premodern relationships, new institutional names carrying forward old political logics.

This is not the consequence of a lack of intelligence.

On the contrary, it may be the product of an adaptive intelligence that has become too accomplished in just being transactional in the moment.  Such instrumental cleverness can easily lead to half-learning and no more.

When society becomes accustomed to finding rapid solutions for particular situations, it becomes harder to construct systems requiring time, discipline, transparency, and consistency. Dramatic leaps are more attractive than quiet accumulation; campaigns more visible than institutions; measurable achievements easier to celebrate than foundations whose importance may not become visible for a generation.

To move toward Opening Up, Vietnam must learn how to inherit without worshipping, to break with the past without forgetting it, and to learn truths without merely imitating superficials.

What matters is not how many additional models the country imports, but whether it can understand them to their foundations, test them under Vietnamese conditions, acknowledge mistakes openly, and continue accumulating knowledge across generations.

A mature people need not be ashamed to learn from others.

The danger begins only when a society learns a great deal but the knowledge it acquires does not enhance its own creative capacity.

12. Communism in Vietnamese History: From a Capacity for Liberation to the Restraints on Reconciliation

Communism cannot be understood simply as something foreign imposed upon Vietnam.

Nor can it be equated with the entirety of Vietnamese patriotism, the desire for independence, or the sacrifices of those who followed it.

In the twentieth century, the communist movement provided disciplined organization, a language of liberation, methods of mass mobilization, and an international network for the struggle against colonial rule. It promised not only national independence but also a more equal social order.

In a poor, colonized, and deeply stratified country, that promise possessed genuine attraction.

The historical strength of Vietnamese communism lay partly in its ability to connect the national question to the social question. It did not merely promise to expel foreign rulers; it also promised to transform the lives of peasants, workers, and social groups possessing little voice within the previous order.

Organizational discipline, clandestine capacity, and support from an international communist movement helped it outperform competing nationalist organizations that were often more fragmented.

Yet the patriotic motivations of millions of Vietnamese cannot be reduced to belief in Marxism-Leninism.

The example of Tạ Quang Bửu, mentioned in Part I, is instructive: he joined the revolution in 1945 and became a Party member only later. A single individual cannot represent an entire generation, but his path reminds us that for many intellectuals and ordinary Vietnamese, the nation came before the doctrine; the doctrine was a path chosen in the service of the nation.

The Communist Party of Indochina’s announcement of its dissolution in November 1945, followed by clandestine organizational activity before its public reappearance as the Workers’ Party of Vietnam in 1951, should likewise be understood in the context of efforts to construct a broader national front while responding to domestic and international concerns.

The episode does not permit the simplistic conclusion that Vietnamese society as a whole rejected communism.

A more defensible proposition is that the movement’s broadest appeal did not arise from Marxist theory in the abstract. It came from the capacity to connect that theory with independence, national unity, social justice, and liberation from colonial subordination.

That combination created a capacity for liberation.

The paradox emerged when a doctrine that had functioned as an instrument of liberation became the exclusive foundation of political legitimacy for an independent nation with a remarkable past made possible by a resilient continuity.

Class struggle placed people into political categories heavily conditioned by social origin. Land reform did more than redistribute property; it also inflicted deep wounds upon community relations. The political classification of family background blurred the distinction between individual responsibility and inherited identity.

More consequentially, when a political organization identifies itself simultaneously with the nation and with the allegedly necessary direction of history, rival domestic political competition can easily be interpreted as betrayal rather than as a normal possibility within national life.

A doctrine that speaks in the name of human liberation can thereby produce a structure in which human beings no longer possess a full right to choose the path of their own liberation.

During war, discipline and concentration of authority provided significant organizational advantages. In peace, if not transformed, they can become foundations for monopoly.

A propaganda apparatus once used to mobilize society during war can continue to define which memories are legitimate. Security institutions created to confront infiltration from outside can easily be turned toward supervision of dissent within. The category of “enemy” migrates from the battlefield into political life, where criticism of policy may still be viewed through the lens of loyal solidarity.

After 1975, territorial reunification did not produce uniformity of memories.

Economic reorganization, reeducation camps, the exodus of the boat people, and the legacy of the Republic of Vietnam were for many years represented in official discourse primarily through the perspective of the victorious side. An opportunity for postwar reconciliation was therefore only partially used, while the normative logic of winner and loser held sway long after the fighting had ended.

Yet the limitations of the communist model do not disappear merely because belief in communist theory declines. This is where the analysis must go deeper.

A modern political system does not survive only through the writings of Marx or Lenin, textbooks, ideological instruction, or public slogans. It also survives through an apparatus of power, networks of interests, procedures for selecting personnel, relationships between property and political position, languages of legitimacy, and fears of instability. It survives, too, through social habits accumulated over long periods: withdrawal from politics, the search for patronage, self-censorship, and the tendency to regard existing structures of authority as almost immutable facts of life.

An ideology may weaken in the minds of citizens while continuing for a long time to inhabit institutions.

The distinction is essential. The end of belief in a doctrine is not the same thing as the disappearance of mechanisms created under that doctrine. Institutions, interests, habits of power, and social psychology do not dissolve at the same moment as ideological conviction. The central challenge of any future transition is therefore not simply to leave an old order behind, but to avoid carrying its deepest reflexes intact into what comes next.

For that reason, any future transition — whatever name it may eventually bear — cannot consist merely of changing symbols, replacing terminology, or announcing the repudiation of an ideology.

If political power remains beyond effective restraint; if a new victor erases a new loser; if dissent continues to be interpreted as betrayal; if society continues to place its hopes in a leader presumed capable of resolving problems that properly belong to institutions, then a new political order may do no more than reproduce the mechanisms of the order it has replaced.

The lesson extends far beyond communism. Political names can change much faster than the habits of power those systems leave behind, and the removal of an old orthodoxy does not in itself create a culture of responsibility.

Justice requires truth, individual responsibility, and reform of the institutions that permitted abuse. Reconciliation requires equal dignity, the right to dissent, and the rejection of collective vengeance. These two imperatives do not cancel one another. They need each other.

Without justice, reconciliation may become compulsory forgetting. Without reconciliation, justice risks becoming only the punitive instrument of whoever claims the power to rule.

Only when the history of the nation is understood as larger than the separate histories of every political party can memories once used to divide Vietnamese begin to become part of a common moral and spiritual inheritance befitting an intelligent and ambitious people.

Communism can then be restored to its proper historical proportion: an exceptionally important chapter of modern Vietnamese history, capable of mobilizing great energies and associated with achievements that cannot reasonably be denied, while also carrying profound limitations and tragedies — but neither the beginning, nor the end, nor the ultimate meaning of Vietnamese history.

The Vietnamese people existed long before every modern political doctrine contributed to global discourse, and they will remain a people after many such doctrines have changed, faded, or passed away.

The decisive question, therefore, is not when a particular political label will disappear. It is whether a society has accumulated by the time a historical order reaches the limits of its own capacity – enough independent persons, enough knowledge, enough respect for law, enough institutional responsibility, enough reconciled memory, enough space for truth, enough experience of cooperation — so that what follows need not become just another variation on what had gone before.

A new cycle for the Vietnamese, should one emerge, does not become better merely because an older cycle has ended. It will become a genuine Opening Up only when the conditions for Maturing have already begun to form: autonomous persons, the rule of law, accountable power, memories capable of reconciliation, and a society that possesses the institutional courage to detect and correct its own mistakes.

CONCLUSION TO PART II

Resilient Continuity is one of the great achievements of Vietnamese history, but it does not provide the Vietnamese with an exemption from the limitations of the present. That inheritance remains life-giving only if the Vietnamese learn to distinguish nourishment from poison, endurance from stagnation, tolerance from ambiguity, solidarity from submission, and flexibility from the absence of principle.

Almost every capacity that enabled the Vietnamese people to survive over the centuries possesses this double character. Village society preserved community, yet it could also nourish localism. The family generated resilience, yet it could weaken obligations toward the public realm. Adaptation helped people cross periods of danger, yet it could prolong an irrational environment. Non-absolutism made cultural synthesis possible, yet it could blur distinctions between right and wrong. Concentrated authority made extraordinary mobilization possible during crisis, yet when normalized it could weaken precisely the capacity for self-correction upon which long-term development depends.

Historical ruptures repeatedly allowed Vietnam to recover without fully retaining the achievements of preceding cycles. Half-learning brought modern forms to the surface without necessarily transforming the foundations below. Communism gathered immense energies associated with patriotism, equality, and the struggle for independence; once made the exclusive source of political legitimacy, however, it also revitalized older normative sediments of obedience, fear of difference, and the exclusion of the defeated side from common memory.

None of these limitations is destiny. They were produced in history, and because they were historically produced, they can also be recognized, modified, and overcome.

The rhythm of history is therefore not a promise that renewal must inevitably follow deterioration. History owes salvation to no people. What history allows us to recognize is something more modest and more demanding: no historical condition is naturally permanent, yet an opportunity for change becomes meaningful only when a society has developed the capacities required to use it.

Here the two historical rhythms followed throughout this essay meet. Consolidation and Dispersion — Tích and Tản – help explain how Vietnamese communities could disperse without disappearing and then converge again when circumstances permitted.  Closing and Opening —Khép and Mở – pose the more difficult question: after each convergence, does society reach a higher level of development, or merely reconstitute a familiar structure under a new name?

Replacing one center of power with another is not yet an Opening Up. Replacing one political language with another while preserving obedience, monopolized memory, and the longing for a savior does not  introduce a new advance in civilization

That is why the decisive issue is not simply recognizing when an order is approaching its limits. It is what has already been prepared before that  point of transition arrives: are there available people capable of independent judgment; knowledge capable of surviving political changes; a culture of responsibility; the rule of law; memories capable of speaking to one another; institutions able to discover errors and correct them rather than merely conceal them. A society should not wait for an old order to end before asking what must be built next. The foundations for what will follow are laid, quietly and often imperfectly, while the existing order is still standing.

Transformation of the Vietnamese begins when endurance is no longer used as a reason to endure indefinitely; when victory no longer confers ownership of historical truth; when popular ingenuity is no longer treated as a substitute for institutional responsibility; and when a society ceases to believe that a new era can be brought into existence merely by giving it a new name.

A new age begins only when the people and institutions capable of inhabiting that age have themselves begun to mature.

From this point onward, the central question is no longer simply why the Vietnamese people survived. It becomes more demanding: what must a people that has demonstrated such extraordinary Resilient Continuity transform within itself in order to become capable of self-knowledge, self-correction, responsibility, and the deliberate construction of its own future?

That is the passage from Resilient Continuity to Maturation — and the subject of Part III.

SELECTED REFERENCES

  1. Anderson, Benedict. Imagined Communities: Reflections on the Origin and Spread of Nationalism. Revised ed. London: Verso, 2006.
  2. Braudel, Fernand. Écrits sur l’histoire. Paris: Flammarion, 1969.
  3. Brocheux, Pierre, and Daniel Hémery. Indochine: la colonisation ambiguë, 1858–1954. Paris: La Découverte, 2001. English edition: Indochina: An Ambiguous Colonization, 1858–1954. Berkeley: University of California Press, 2009.
  4. Goscha, Christopher. Vietnam: A New History. New York: Basic Books, 2016.
  5. Guillemot, François. Viêt-Nam, fractures d’une nation: Une histoire contemporaine de 1858 à nos jours. Paris: La Découverte, 2018; updated as Histoire du Viêt Nam contemporain: De 1858 à nos jours. Paris: La Découverte, 2025.
  6. Marr, David G. Vietnam 1945: The Quest for Power. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1995.
  7. Papin, Philippe. Histoire de Hanoi. Paris: Fayard, 2001.
  8. Taylor, Keith Weller. A History of the Vietnamese. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013.
  9. Toynbee, Arnold J. A Study of History. London: Oxford University Press, 1934–1961.
  10. Trần Ngọc Vương. Thực thể Việt nhìn từ các tọa độ chữ. 2 vols. Hanoi: Vietnam National University Press, 2025.
  11. Trần Quốc Vượng. Văn hóa Việt Nam: Tìm tòi và suy ngẫm. Hanoi: Văn hóa Dân tộc / Tạp chí Văn hóa Nghệ thuật, various editions.
  12. Woodside, Alexander Barton. Vietnam and the Chinese Model: A Comparative Study of Vietnamese and Chinese Government in the First Half of the Nineteenth Century. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1971.
  13. Kiernan, Ben. Việt Nam: A History from Earliest Times to the Present. New York: Oxford University Press, 2017.
  14. Bradley, Mark Philip. Vietnam at War. New York: Oxford University Press, 2009.

From Resilient Continuity To Realizing Possibilities: A New Path For The Vietnamese People

Introduction:  From Endurance to Opening: A New Path for the Vietnamese People”

  • Introduced by Professor Stephen B. Young, Global Executive Director of the Caux Round Table for Moral Capitalism; author The Tradition of Human Rights in China and Vietnam
  • Written by Former Ambassador Hoang Thang Dinh, Ph.D. in Political Science and Fellow of the Caux Round Table

What comes next for Vietnam in the twenty-first century?

This is a question not only for Vietnamese scholars and citizens, but also for any policymaker, international business partner, social-media communities, and younger generations seeking a practical vision of Vietnam’s possible place in a rapidly changing world.

From Endurance to Opening: A New Path for the Vietnamese People begins by recounting an extraordinary historical achievement: despite centuries of foreign domination, warfare, division, political rupture, and displacement, the Vietnamese people have preserved their identity, communal continuity, and national sovereignty. The essay calls this capacity “Endurance”, a resilient communal continuity

Yet such endurance alone is no longer sufficient to advance Vietnam’s prospects. Qualities that once enabled survival—adaptability, resilience, social cohesion, and the ability to absorb external shocks and alternative narratives on norms and proper socialization—may become constraints when they harden into political inertia, intellectual accommodation, or acceptance of conditions that should be changed. Vietnam’s twenty first century journey must therefore lead from Endurance through a process of national Maturing  leading to a cultural, social, economic and political Opening Up to all of humanity:  internalizing the capacity to transform historical experience into wisdom, power into responsibility, economic growth into human dignity, and national identity into a creative contribution to humanity.

This essay was developed within the framework of the broader U.S.–Vietnam Project, an effort to deepen mutual understanding between the two countries and help realize the full potential of their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Such understanding is increasingly important as Vietnam and the United States navigate a changing Indo-Pacific shaped by strategic competition, technological transformation, and their shared interest in a free and open regional order. I am pleased that a number of friends and other officials in our diplomatic and national security agencies have taken an interest in this essay and previous commentaries.

For scholars, policymakers, citizens, and young people asking where Vietnam may go next—and what values should guide that journey—this essay offers not a finalized proposal, but an invitation to reflect and dialogue on what is to be done by the Vietnamese to advance their destiny in promising directions. It is in this spirit of seeking the greater good that I am pleased to commend this thoughtful and ambitious essay to all those concerned with Vietnam’s future.

Here is the essay.

FROM RESILIENT CONTINUITY TO REALIZING POSSIBILITIES 

A NEW PATH FOR THE VIETNAMESE PEOPLE

INTRODUCTION

FROM AN AGE OF “ORDER” TO AN AGE OF “TRANSITION”

For much of the twentieth century, strategic thinking often began with the question: What kind of order is framing world events? People gave names to various structures of behaviors and expectations: the colonial system, the bipolar order, Pax Americana, or liberal globalization. Yet an “order” is only a still photograph capturing a particular moment, while history is a film that continues moving from one frame to another. The twenty-first century increasingly shows that humanity is preparing to enter a new order that has not yet fully taken its shape. We are living in an age in which power, technology, climate, population, data, and systems of values are changing simultaneously, while no great power is yet capable of establishing a new and enduring status quo.

For Vietnam, this movement fundamentally changes the modalities of survival. In the past, we could endure through resilience by contracting when invaded, dispersing to avoid destruction, and then gathering strength to restore our sovereignty. Today, borders remain important, but dependence on others also operates through supply chains, obtaining core technologies, data infrastructure, finance, education, and even algorithms created by others that quietly shape human perceptions and decisions. A country may preserve its territorial integrity while losing its capacity for self-determination; it may grow rapidly while mortgaging its future; it may maintain political stability while trust, creativity, and civic responsibility gradually withdraw from common life. Adaptation for the sake of survival is no longer sufficient. Vietnam must acquire the capacity to orient itself towards the future it wants amid the very process of transition.

This essay begins with an undeniable achievement: through thousands of years of war, foreign domination, division, natural disasters, and political ruptures, the Vietnamese people have maintained their historical continuity. Many communities that once possessed territories, languages, and cultures have been assimilated by others or have just disappeared; the Vietnamese, although they lost their sovereignty more than once, repeatedly re-established communal life and re-asserted ethnic autonomy. This capacity can be called resilient continuity (Truong ton) and provided for lasting Endurance for the Vietnamese as a people

Such Endurance is not a mysterious gift reserved for our people, nor is it evidence of an immutable “Vietnamese essence.” It is the result, year in and year out,  of many forces operating together: the resilience of the family and the village, the tenacious survival of language and memories, the capacity to receive but then Vietnamize external influences, and the ability to disperse in times of danger and reunite when opportunities to do so arose. Such a capacity for Endurance encompassed the intelligence, sacrifices, wise choices, and tragic decisions of many generations and still today energizes Vietnamese to advance by themselves their national destiny.

Yet it is precisely here that the central paradox emerges. A capacity developed in response to a particular set of circumstances may become a form of inertia when those circumstances change and new, more fitting, capabilities are demanded by those circumstances A core capability that once ensured success may harden into a core rigidity that obstructs renewal as times and economic realities change. Resourcefulness in the moment may weaken the capacity for long-term construction; accommodation may become avoidance of principle; just enduring may cause society to accept for too long conditions that should have been changed. Unity in the face of foreign invasion has repeatedly dissolved into divisiveness once the external enemy disappeared. Endurance is therefore both a precious legacy and a possible ceiling limiting the nation’s maturation as new possibilities arise.

Moving beyond the ceiling on responsiveness imposed by enduring is the stage of of Maturation, which his the capacity of a historical community to become more fully self-aware and intentional, to correct and orient itself appropriately; to elevate power into responsibility, growth into personal dignity, memory into wisdom, and uniqueness into creative energy. If Enduring answers the question of how not to be erased from history, Maturation answers the question of how to rise above systemic conformism and acquire a comprehensive agency, not to continue being led by history in an uncertain and unreflective manner.

Enduring and Maturing must both be understood on two levels: as a crystallized outcome of actions taken and as a continuing process moving forward in time. Classical Endurance was expressed by protecting the community and recovering sovereignty. Yet Enduring in these modern times is never enough, because sovereignty today also encompasses the capacity to master knowledge, technology, natural resources, data, and make strategic decisions. Similarly, Maturation is now necessary in a period when independence and civilization have reached a high degree of development, but this contemporary Maturing must be the shared undertaking of all Vietnamese. It cannot be monopolized by either the nationalists or the communists, by those inside the country or those overseas, by the state or independent intellectuals. A people becomes truly mature only when each and all participate in defining the common interest.

Such a perspective also requires a multilinear reading of history. The history that did occur was not the only history that could have occurred. Alongside the victorious currents, there have always been possibilities that emerged but were then cut short, ideas that foresaw the future but found no institutions capable of adopting and acting on them, and communities that left a remembered legacy despite having suffered military or political defeat. In the 19th century, Nguyễn Trường Tộ very correctly perceived the “great tendency of the world” at that time and so proposed comprehensive reforms in scholarship, administration, economics, and technology, but this his new understanding was not adopted by a sufficiently powerful coalition capable of turning it into a national program. A mature nation is not afraid to look back at the possibilities that history did not champion.

If Maturation is a process of evolution, then Opening Up to bring about viable possibilities is a process looking towards a horizon. For Vietnamese to Open Up today, to unfold their collective genius does not mean their Westernizing, breaking with tradition, or pursuing everything new. It is the liberation of valuable possibilities that are ready for exploitation but have not yet been fully developed: moving from adaptation to initiating creativity, from defensiveness to construction, from submission to taking responsibility, and leaving behind a community trapped by its history to become an agent capable of making history going forward. Opening Up does not negate Endurance; it enables the sources of Endurance to find a larger current.

A new path for the Vietnamese people is therefore neither a new ideology nor a declaration that the Vietnamese possess a truth of their own. It must be a way of moving forward together: sufficiently grounded in “Vietnamese character” and so not becoming a copy of others, yet sufficiently open to the global community to consider universal values; sufficiently connected to history to have roots, yet sufficiently free to criticize that very history. Values such as love, tolerance, creativity, responsibility, humanity, and dignity acquire real meaning only when they are embodied in modern life through human rights, citizens’ rights, the rule of law, democracy, and institutions that enable society to recognize and correct its mistakes.

This new journey for the Vietnamese may be imagined through the image of a tree. Its roots, reaching deep into the soil of history, represent Enduring. Its growing trunk, forming a structure, withstanding storms, and healing itself, represents Maturing. Its canopy, receiving light, air, water, and nourishment from all directions, represents Opening Up to possibilities. Its flowers and fruits are what the Vietnamese people may offer to the world. Preserving the roots does not mean rejecting the sky; opening the canopy to light does not mean losing the roots. Yet roots that cannot absorb nourishment will rot, a trunk that cannot carry sap up to the branches and leaves will wither, and a canopy that receives no light will bear neither flowers nor fruit.

This essay reads history as leaving behind layers of sediment. Each layer contains nourishment and toxins, achievements and wounds, realities that came into being and possibilities that remained unrealized. The challenge today then is neither to worship nor to reject the past, but to make the past a set of options for the future. A mature nation does not carry history as a sentence imposed upon it. It carries history as memory subjected to reflection, and thereby learns what must be inherited, what must be transcended, and what must never be allowed to happen again.

The central thesis of this essay may be expressed as follows: the Vietnamese people have demonstrated their capacity to survive, but to succeed and flourish in this twenty-first century they must acquire the capacities for Maturing and Opening Up. Endurance is the foundation; Maturation is transformative growth; Opening Up envisions the horizon. This journey does not belong exclusively to a state, a political party, an intellectual class, or a generation. It is the shared undertaking of Vietnamese communities inside and outside the country, of people who carry different memories, and especially of the younger generation—those who not only have inherited the debts and disappointments of history but also have the right to participate in writing a covenant with the future.

PART I

HISTORICAL CYCLES: CHALLENGE, ADAPTATION, AND SOVEREIGNTY

This historical section does not seek to retell the long history of the Vietnamese people, nor does it use the past as mandating a necessary destiny. This section reads history as a series of repeated cycles of challenge, response, accumulated capacities, and enduring wounds. Vietnamese Enduring therefore appears not as an immutable miracle, but as the end result of many choices, repeated processes of adaptation, and hopeful possibilities that emerged only to be cut short.

1. From the Early Period to Chinese Rule: Preserving the Core while Adapting External Influences

The periods of Văn Lang–Âu Lạc tribal coalescence and the revolt of the Trưng Sisters against Han Chinese imperialism must be discerned at the intersection of mythology, archaeology, and historical records written in later times. Legends should not be turned into facts in the modern sense, but neither should mythology be regarded as fiction. Origin stories, memories of the Hùng Kings, Mother Âu Cơ and Father Lạc Long Quân, and the uprising of the Trưng Sisters tell us how later generations, looking back, imagined their community: as a hundred children born from a single womb, bound by symbolic kinship yet accepting dispersion to the mountains or the seashore; bearing traces of female authority and indigenous beliefs; and carrying memories of a distinct political space before incorporation into the Chinese imperial bureaucratic state.

The endurance capacity accumulated in this early layer of psycho-social reality was the consciousness that the community could possess a life of its own. But caution, however, arises from the fragmentary nature of the evidence and the temptation to use mythology to legitimize present-day conclusions. Endurance did not arise from some pre-existing and homogeneous essence shared by all historic Vietnamese. The Vietnamese experience began with numerous communities in the river deltas and uplands gradually forming connections, both conflicting and integrating with one another, and later being remembered as having shared a common origin.

From the defeat of the Trưng Sisters in 39 CE to the Vietnamese victory at the Bạch Đằng River in 938 CE, the pressure of assimilation continued over centuries.  Han Chinese administrative institutions, written characters, laws, scholarship, and the imperial model penetrated deeply into Vietnamese communities. Yet this reception did not take place in a vacuum. Families, villages, popular beliefs, the spoken language, and memories of resistance created places of refuge for the community to continue as a self-system. A unique identity was not lost, but preserved, and even venerated.

The subsequent indigenous uprisings extending from Lady Triệu to Lý Bí, Mai Thúc Loan, Phùng Hưng, Khúc Thừa Dụ, and Dương Đình Nghệ showed that a desire for self-rule did not suddenly appear in 938. That moral and political energy – a social capital – was a capacity nurtured and refined over many generations. In 939 CE, Ngô Quyền did not establish independence upon a land that had remained entirely quiescent; his victory at Bạch Đằng was the point at which currents of separateness and resistance, flowing quietly or erupting openly across many centuries, finally converged generating military effectiveness.

Buddhism played a significant role in this process because it created spiritual and intellectual networks that did not completely coincide with the mores and teachings of the colonial bureaucracy. Lê Mạnh Thát’s bold approach to the history of Vietnamese Buddhism may be consulted, but an interpretation such as his that remains contested should not be turned into the sole basis of understanding. What is more certain is that religious centers, trading networks, and villages helped the indigenous society maintain its connections to its past, receive written scripts and ideas from both India and China, and gradually Vietnamize them.

What these cycles of intrusion, adaption, and resistance produced was a core ability to contract without dissolving, to learn from the stronger power without entirely losing oneself in that foreignness, and to reunite as a community when opportunity appeared. What was lost were many indigenous cultural layers that became obscured; the long-term imposition on the evolving but enduring community was a deep dependence on the writing system, canonical models, and structures of social power and governance brought by the Chinese. The capacity for adaptation created vitality, but it also planted the seeds of a lasting disposition toward the neighboring giant civilization where admiration, insecurity, and resistance existed side by side.

2. The Lý–Trần and Early Lê Dynasties: 450 Years of Classical Self-Rule and National Flowering

After regaining sovereignty for the Vietnamese people, the Lý and Trần dynasties did not merely defend their borders against Chinese imperialism. They also built viable state institutions, a legal order, irrigation systems, an army, and a cultural space capable of expressing itself. That culture flourished with an amalgam known as the Three Teachings coexisting within a relatively flexible moral and intellectual order of spiritual development; Buddhism contributed to political and ethical life;  A Confucianism derived from the Analects and the Mencius gradually supplied norms and techniques of governance; and indigenous beliefs continued to provide spiritual sustenance in both villages and the royal court. The uniquely Vietnamese Trúc Lâm school of Zen was a representative synthesis: it followed Buddhism while linking spiritual practice with responsibility toward the community and the country.

This may be regarded as a major Opening Up of the Vietnamese as a people permitted by an age of self-rule: knowledge received from outside was transformed into national capacity and a distinct cultural dynamic passed on from generation to generation. The solidarity displayed in the face of the Mongol–Yuan invasions of the 14th Century showed that the royal court, the nobility, the villages, and the army could coordinate efficiently with one another when the country confronted an existential threat. Although the historical and symbolic dimensions of the Diên Hồng Conference where the ruling Dynasty decided to fight back on behalf of the entire people must be elevated in contemporary esteem, it nevertheless gave rise to the memory of a moment when state power had to seek a consensus of values and personal commitments extending far beyond royal courtyards.

Yet this era of Buddhist influence should not be romanticized. The social order remained hierarchical, power belonged to a minority, ordinary lives remained precarious, and dynastic struggles between and within families never disappeared. This classical Opening Up created a high point of civilization for the Vietnamese people, but it did not yet constitute freedom and citizenship in the modern sense. The lesson for Vietnamese today is not to replicate the Lý–Trần model, but to recognize and apply once again its ability to receive multiple intellectual sources without allowing any one of them immediately to monopolize the spiritual life of the people.

The twenty years of Ming colonial rule which followed the collapse of the Tran Dynasty were shorter than the earlier centuries of Chinese domination, but the intensity of foreign control, exploitation, and cultural destruction was particularly severe. Responding to that ordeal, the Lam Sơn uprising did not merely recover political authority; it also created a new language of legitimacy. The Proclamation of Victory over the Wu placed Benevolence and Righteousness alongside consciousness of territory, customs, history, and civilization as essential for the Vietnamese capacity to Endure. It’s author, Nguyễn Trãi transformed resistance to foreign invasion into a moral proposition: bringing peace to the people was the standard of politics, and independence meant not merely replacing a foreign ruler with an indigenous one but restoring the full dignity of a civilized community deserving a status equal to that claimed by Chinese Neo-Confucian mandarins and scholars

The new capacity for Vietnamese Enduring produced by this cycle of invasion, repression, resistance, and re-assertion of national autonomy was a clearer consciousness of what a state should be and of what constituted its legitimacy. Yet the early Lê rulers subsequently strengthened centralized monarchy, the legal order, and Mencian Confucianism. This organizational capacity that helped stabilize the state also narrowed the social and cultural options permitted by the more pluralistic space which had prevailed during the previous period. A collective capacity that liberated the country from foreign domination could become a force for concentrating power domestically once peace had been restored.

This cycle shows that oppression does not automatically generate a fulsome Maturing of a people. Only when leadership, organization, a moral language, and the capacity for institutionalization are present can wounds from the past be transformed into bringing forth and then supporting a new, more consequential, stage of national development. Even then, the fruits of liberation may carry with them the seeds of rigidity in centralizing power in the state and its preferred elite families. Defeating foreign invasion and building a mature political community are related capacities, but they are not the same.

3. Civil Wars, Southward Expansion, and the Formation of a Multivector Vietnamese Identity

The prolonged conflicts beginning int he late 1500s between the Lê and Mạc clans, the Trịnh and Nguyễn clans, and the Tây Sơn brothers fighting Prince Nguyễn Ánh exhausted the Vietnamese, while also opening new realities of regional expansion, trade, and cultural interchange. The southward expansion down from the Red River Delta and contiguous provinces cannot be told solely as the Vietnamese people’s journey of territorial enlargement. It is also a history of dispossession, adaptation, and profoundly unequal coexistence involving the Chăm, Khmer, indigenous peoples, and the Minh Hương community of Chinese fleeing the Manchu Qing Dynasty. A mature common history must contain both pride in national expansion and  memories of those communities who paid a price for that expansion.

Through the stage by stage pioneering movement southward, Vietnamese identity became more multilvectored. The “Five Quảng Provinces” bore the strong imprint of interaction with Chăm culture; the far South, including the Mekong River Delta, brought encounters, conflicts, and mixtures among Vietnamese, Khmer, Chinese, Chăm, and other communities. The commercial talents of the Chinese Minh Hương settlers , the Mạc Cửu, and regional trading networks showed that the South provinces were not simply an extension of life in the Red River Delta. It was a new social space in which Vietnamese identity continued to take shape through contact with other identities. Three dialects of spoken Vietnamese emerged: one in the Red River Delta, another in the central provinces along the coast of the South China Sea, and a third north and south of the two branches of the mighty Mekong River.

In each civil war, every protagonist constructed its own legitimacy, heroes, villains, and created it own victims. The Tây Sơn rebels may be viewed as a force that, in the late 18th century, broke the old order, unified much of the country under their rule, and defeated a foreign invasion; Prince Nguyễn Ánh, who defeated the Tây Sơn to establish his own Nguyen Dynasty, may be viewed as the ruler who completed the territorial unification of the country while opening the door for an increasingly conservative dynasty to reign from the city of Hue in Central Vietnam. Neither side consisted only of light or darkness. Nguyễn Huệ of the Tây Sơn defeated the Qing forces in the north, but the Tây Sơn army also devastated Gia Định in the south; Nguyễn Ánh relied upon foreign assistance to help him defeat the Tây Sơn, but this alone cannot erase him from the history of national construction.

This was not yet an ideological division in the twentieth-century sense, but it already put in place the prehistory of a binary habit: the victor turning himself into the sole legitimate historical current, while the defeated were expelled from authorized memory. When history is told only in the language of the victorious, a people loses not merely the truth of the defeated side, but also the ability to understand itself in full. Excluded memories do not disappear; they survive within families, regions, and communities that carry forward a sense of dispossession.

What this episode of the recurring cycle produced was an expanded national territory, the development of trade, and a Vietnamese identity that became regionally diverse and so complex. What it cost was human life, social trust, and the ability to build a form of legitimacy recognized by multiple communities. Endurance through division preserved a common territorial space, but it could not by itself heal the wounds inflicted by Vietnamese upon one another. Those fractures would reappear in different forms in the twentieth century.

4. The Nguyễn Dynasty and the Colonial Period: Unification, Delayed Reform, and the Reception of Modernity

The Nguyễn dynasty organized a unified state across an extensive territory, completed its administrative system, and sought to establish sovereignty. The nineteenth century for Vietnamese cannot be understood merely through use of the label “reactionary,” because the ruling dynasty had to govern a country needing discipline due to its having emerged from a prolonged civil war, weakened by deep regional differences, and facing unprecedented external pressures.

Yet as the world entered the age of industrialization and colonialism, the Hue royal court turned strongly towards Neo-Confucian orthodoxy, using old Chinese categories of thought to interpret an entirely new balance of power with the arrival of French expansionists. What had once helped organize the state and consolidate order was no longer sufficient to identify the nature of the new challenge. Vietnam faced not merely a stronger army, but an entire new civilizational system driven by science, industry, trade, maritime power, and a type of state capable of mobilizing resources on a scale far beyond that achieved by traditional Asian dynasties.

Nguyễn Trường Tộ represented a notable “counter-history”—a possible response for Vietnam that was proposed  but never realized. Through The Great Tendency of the World, the Eight Urgent Proposals, and dozens of other petitions, he did not merely recommend purchasing machinery or learning Western techniques. He sought to change education, the recruitment and use of talent, administrative organization, the economy, the legal order, and the Vietnamese understanding of the world. He understood that preserving the country required, first of all, recognizing how profoundly the world had changed.

This tragedy cannot be reduced to the story of a genius rejected by ignorant men. The court lacked the money and the capacity for implementation; the bureaucracy defended established interests; wounded national pride turned into cultural defensiveness; Nguyễn Trường Tộ’s Catholic identity and personal connections aroused suspicion. More fundamentally, Vietnam lacked a reform coalition powerful enough to establish priorities, gather talent, and transform knowledge of the future into a national program.  

Perceiving the danger was not enough. There also had to be institutions capable of listening to those who perceived it. No Meiji restoration came to the rescue of the Vietnamese.

Like Vietnam, in the 1860s Japan also lacked capital, faced pressure from the West, and was constrained by an old intellectual order. Yet the Meiji leadership created a reform coalition, accepted the dismantling of many privileges, and directed scarce resources according to the priority of building “a rich country and a strong army.” This comparison is not intended to idealize Japan’s path, still less to condemn the Vietnamese as an inferior people. It simply reveals the system advantage that comes from having a few individuals who could see the future and possessing a structure of power capable of using them.

The capacity that had once permitted the stability of the Nguyễn dynasty hardened into a limitation on its prospects  at precisely the moment when national survival required another kind of envisioning and organizing. This is a characteristic example of the paradox of Endurance: what once helped a community preserve order may obstruct its ability to renew itself when renewal becomes necessary; national pride that once protected identity may become a refusal to acknowledge the arrival of a new reality; loyalty to tradition may become a fear of admitting that tradition can no longer provide good answers for how best to respond to a new situation.

French colonial rule brought forth for Vietnamese a period of lost sovereignty, colonial exploitation, and racial stratification. Every discussion of the impacts and effects of that French “civilizing mission”  to enlighten and uplift the Vietnamese must begin with that reality of coercion.

Yet the impress of Colonial rule was not unidirectional. Cities, the press, the Romanized Vietnamese script, new schools, laws, science, and global trade created channels of modernization that the Vietnamese actively appropriated in order to better resist the colonial regime itself. Instruments introduced to facilitate colonial rule gradually became means for the formation of a new public, a new political language, and new ways of imagining the nation.

Phan Châu Trinh placed the advancement of popular knowledge and the development of social capacity as the first priority in reasserting national self-governance before the direct use of violence. Phan Bội Châu sought national salvation through the Đông Du movement and connections with other Asian cultures. Phạm Quỳnh saw the Vietnamese language as the repository of the national soul which could use it to survive and outlast the French intrusion in another instance of the Vietnamese capacity for Endurance.. The Đông Kinh Free School, the Duy Tân movement, the printed press, and modern literatur created an unprecedented and very modern space for public discussion. Ideas concerning citizens’ rights, the nation, science, education, and the role of the individual began entering social life, opening competing possibilities for Vietnam’s future.

The “golden generation” of Western-educated Vietnamese intellectuals did not share a single political orientation. Some followed nationalism, some chose communism, and others served different governments; many placed patriotism and the aspiration for modernization above loyalty to any single doctrine. This multivectorism must be recovered for Vietnam to prosper in the twenty-first century.

Tạ Quang Bửu provides a verifiable example: he participated in the revolution against French colonial rule from August 1945 but did not join the Communist Party until July 1947. A single example cannot support a generalization about an entire generation, but it is sufficient to prevent us from equating patriotic motivation with a pre-existing ideological conversion. For many intellectuals of the period, the nation was the point of departure; doctrine was a path chosen in its service.

What the period of Western colonialism produced was a modern language, a new intellectual class, the capacity for global communication, and new ideas of citizens’ rights, nationhood, and science. What it cost the Vietnamese was sovereignty, resources, human lives, and the opportunity for autonomous development. These two dimensions do not cancel one another out. Civilization did not prevent the oppressive nature of colonialism; but oppression could not entirely forestall the growth of creative capacities among the colonized.

The deeper lesson is that external knowledge generates an internal capacity only when the Vietnamese appropriate it, debate it, and translate it into the language of needs that they themselves define. Not everything introduced from abroad represents progress; neither does every foreign influence threaten national identity. The decisive question is whether the community possesses sufficient autonomy to select, transform, and use it.

5. From 1945 to the Present: Revolution and Counter-Revolution, Two Vietnams, and Remembered Experiences Yet to Be Reconciled

The August 1945 Revolution against the return of French governance mobilized an aspiration for independence that extended far beyond the communist constituency. During the following decades of war, communism provided organization, discipline, and an appealing vision of equality. Yet along with Cold War polarization, domestic repression, land reform, ideological control, and political monopoly, Communism also produced profound wounds.

The story of this period cannot be told monochromatically as a victorious resistance against foreign invasion. Nor can it be reduced to the story of a society subjected entirely to one-party coercion. Patriotism, revolutionary faith, organizational power, the intervention of great powers, and fear were all present. History becomes difficult to understand precisely because very different motivations could bring people into the same ranks, while people sharing the same patriotism were driven onto opposing sides.

During the thirty years from 1945 to 1975, the Vietnamese were not fighting a single war. At least four wars overlapped: the struggle for independence from colonial rule; the conflict between competing national projects; the ideological war embedded in the structure of the Cold War; and a conflict fought among international powers on Vietnamese territory.

If any one of these four dimensions is absolutized, history is denied. To describe the entire conflict only as a “war of national resistance” obscures the moral and civilizational conflict among the Vietnamese themselves. To call it solely a “civil war” diminishes the powerful aspiration for independence and the scale of conflict associated with great-power interventions and subventions. To characterize it entirely as a proxy war denies the agency, responsibility, and choices of the Vietnamese forces themselves. A mature reading must be broad enough to weave these difficult truths together.

The Republic of Vietnam governing from Saigon must be studied as a legitimate chapter in Vietnam’s history of modernization. It left memorable experiences in education, the press, law, the market economy, and international engagement; at the same time, it could not divorce itself from political instability, external dependence, war in the villages, and considerable limits on democratic processes. Military defeat does not erase the value of studying that very Vietnamese experience. The Saigon government in its own way was an expression of Vietnamese Endurance. Excluding the Republic of Vietnam from learned history impoverishes the common memory and prolongs the feeling among millions of people that their symbolic homeland has been taken from them.

South Vietnam itself contained many currents and cannot be reduced to a singularity of “puppets” or “nationalists.” Some opposed communism as a very intentional political choice; some staked their hopes on building a non-communist democracy; some joined peace movements or Third Force groups, or opposed foreign intervention; others were simply trying to protect their families in wartime.

Neither was North Vietnam a completely homogeneous political entity. Differences existed within the Communist Party concerning policy, the degree of international dependence, and the conduct of the war. Outside the Party, patriotism, revolutionary loyalty, fear of power, and the instinct for survival existed in society. A person could sincerely sacrifice for independence without fully understanding the apparatus he or she served; another could use an ideal just as a means to acquire power.

The histories of the two post 1954 Vietnams therefore cannot be reduced to a simple story of patriots on one side and traitors on the other, of complete autonomy versus complete dependence, or of absolute justice versus absolute injustice. Both sides were affected by great powers; both included people who sacrificed for what they believed to be the national interest; both committed errors, engaged in coercion, and contained unrealized possibilities. Realizing this does not mean distributing responsibility equally or erasing differences. It only restores to history its inherent complexity.

After 1975, Vietnam was unified territorially but its various memories were not reconciled. The transformation of private commerce, re-education camps, the exodus of boat people, the command economy, and the system of privileging certain political family backgrounds left a deep divide between victors and defeated, and between those in Vietnam and those overseas. The victors held unilateral power to authoritatively define the past, but they had no power to make the private memories of the defeated disappear from history.

Administrative centralization did not automatically become a unification of hearts. Military victory did not automatically produce national reconciliation.

The reforms of 1986 then opened an important door. Economic reality forced ideology to retreat; individual initiative, the household economy, and international integration were gradually restored. Farmers, household businesses, enterprises, and social networks released some of the capacities that had previously been constrained. The reforms demonstrated that Vietnamese society could recover rapidly when initiative was returned to the people. They also showed that solutions previously condemned as ideologically wrong could become paths to national rescue when reality could no longer be denied.

Yet market reform was not accompanied by a corresponding reform of governing power providing for the rule of law and accountability for officialdom. Economic growth, however, created a middle class and new resources, but it also generated inequality, crony capitalism, environmental destruction, and insecurity among workers. When the market is opened but regulatory power remains off-limits to citizens, initiative and agency may be liberated in the economy while continuing to be restricted in politics and intellectual life.

The development of overseas Vietnamese communities, the internet, smartphones, artificial intelligence, and Generation Z is now extending the Vietnamese space beyond national borders and the state’s monopoly over information. Ordinary people possess unprecedented capacities to learn, speak, create, and connect, but they must also confront surveillance, disinformation, and increasingly sophisticated forms of manipulation. The state is no longer the only actor capable of producing and disseminating knowledge; yet society does not automatically become wiser merely because more information is available.  All this shows Vietnamese Endurance, once again, adapting, repositioning, and overcoming.

Modern day Maturation for Vietnamese is therefore not an outcome already achieved. It is an ongoing undertaking: integrating the memories of the two Vietnams without equalizing responsibility; recognizing overseas Vietnamese as part of the national community; giving younger generations the right to participate; and building institutions through which society can detect and correct obvious errors without waiting for a crisis to destabilize elite practices

After many repetitive cycles of repression followed by Openings Up, the question is no longer merely how the Vietnamese have survived the centuries. The more important question now is how far the capacities that have enabled Vietnam to survive can carry the nation.

CONCLUDING NOTE TO PART I

Looking back across these historical cycles, there is no formula according to which “a people oppressed for long enough will automatically open itself.” Challenges may generate solidarity, but they may also generate fear; acculturation under pressure may expand a culture, but it may also produce dependence; centralized power may rescue a community in times of upheaval, but it may also suffocate creativity when it becomes the normal condition.

History does not automatically transform suffering into wisdom. A people may endure for a very long time while continuing to repeat old cycles of suffering under new names.

Endurance is therefore not a capability, which, once possessed, keeps on serving a people’s deepest needs as circumstances for them change. Every age poses a different question of survival. When the principal danger is foreign invasion, the capacity to contract, disperse, and then reunite may save the community. But when the danger lies in stagnation itself, in technological dependence, in the exhaustion of public trust, and in a structure of power incapable of correcting itself, old methods of survival may no longer be sufficient and may even become obstacles to finding happiness.

Only when memory is subjected to reflection, knowledge encounters institutions, and power accepts limits can the experience of Endurance become the starting point for Maturation. The past then ceases to be either a burden to be carried or a glory to be worshiped; it becomes a repository of experience out of which paths to the future may be thoughtfully chosen.

The history examined in this part has identified the sources, turning points, and wounds of Vietnam’s journey from Endurance to now having a chance for Maturation to bring about its good works. The next part of this essay will examine more deeply the capacity for Endurance itself: what created the exceptional resilience of the Vietnamese people, and why the resilience that once saved them may sometimes become a limitation preventing them from moving toward Opening.

PART I

HISTORICAL CYCLES: CHALLENGE, ADAPTATION, AND SOVEREIGNTY

This historical section does not seek to retell the long history of the Vietnamese people, nor does it use the past as mandating a necessary destiny. This section reads history as a series of repeated cycles of challenge, response, accumulated capacities, and enduring wounds. Vietnamese Enduring therefore appears not as an immutable miracle, but as the end result of many choices, repeated processes of adaptation, and hopeful possibilities that emerged only to be cut short.

1. From the Early Period to Chinese Rule: Preserving the Core while Adapting External Influences

The periods of Văn Lang–Âu Lạc tribal coalescence and the revolt of the Trưng Sisters against Han Chinese imperialism must be discerned at the intersection of mythology, archaeology, and historical records written in later times. Legends should not be turned into facts in the modern sense, but neither should mythology be regarded as fiction. Origin stories, memories of the Hùng Kings, Mother Âu Cơ and Father Lạc Long Quân, and the uprising of the Trưng Sisters tell us how later generations, looking back, imagined their community: as a hundred children born from a single womb, bound by symbolic kinship yet accepting dispersion to the mountains or the seashore; bearing traces of female authority and indigenous beliefs; and carrying memories of a distinct political space before incorporation into the Chinese imperial bureaucratic state.

The endurance capacity accumulated in this early layer of psycho-social reality was the consciousness that the community could possess a life of its own. But caution, however, arises from the fragmentary nature of the evidence and the temptation to use mythology to legitimize present-day conclusions. Endurance did not arise from some pre-existing and homogeneous essence shared by all historic Vietnamese. The Vietnamese experience began with numerous communities in the river deltas and uplands gradually forming connections, both conflicting and integrating with one another, and later being remembered as having shared a common origin.

From the defeat of the Trưng Sisters in 39 CE to the Vietnamese victory at the Bạch Đằng River in 938 CE, the pressure of assimilation continued over centuries.  Han Chinese administrative institutions, written characters, laws, scholarship, and the imperial model penetrated deeply into Vietnamese communities. Yet this reception did not take place in a vacuum. Families, villages, popular beliefs, the spoken language, and memories of resistance created places of refuge for the community to continue as a self-system. A unique identity was not lost, but preserved, and even venerated.

The subsequent indigenous uprisings extending from Lady Triệu to Lý Bí, Mai Thúc Loan, Phùng Hưng, Khúc Thừa Dụ, and Dương Đình Nghệ showed that a desire for self-rule did not suddenly appear in 938. That moral and political energy – a social capital – was a capacity nurtured and refined over many generations. In 939 CE, Ngô Quyền did not establish independence upon a land that had remained entirely quiescent; his victory at Bạch Đằng was the point at which currents of separateness and resistance, flowing quietly or erupting openly across many centuries, finally converged generating military effectiveness.

Buddhism played a significant role in this process because it created spiritual and intellectual networks that did not completely coincide with the mores and teachings of the colonial bureaucracy. Lê Mạnh Thát’s bold approach to the history of Vietnamese Buddhism may be consulted, but an interpretation such as his that remains contested should not be turned into the sole basis of understanding. What is more certain is that religious centers, trading networks, and villages helped the indigenous society maintain its connections to its past, receive written scripts and ideas from both India and China, and gradually Vietnamize them.

What these cycles of intrusion, adaption, and resistance produced was a core ability to contract without dissolving, to learn from the stronger power without entirely losing oneself in that foreignness, and to reunite as a community when opportunity appeared. What was lost were many indigenous cultural layers that became obscured; the long-term imposition on the evolving but enduring community was a deep dependence on the writing system, canonical models, and structures of social power and governance brought by the Chinese. The capacity for adaptation created vitality, but it also planted the seeds of a lasting disposition toward the neighboring giant civilization where admiration, insecurity, and resistance existed side by side.

2. The Lý–Trần and Early Lê Dynasties: 450 Years of Classical Self-Rule and National Flowering

After regaining sovereignty for the Vietnamese people, the Lý and Trần dynasties did not merely defend their borders against Chinese imperialism. They also built viable state institutions, a legal order, irrigation systems, an army, and a cultural space capable of expressing itself. That culture flourished with an amalgam known as the Three Teachings coexisting within a relatively flexible moral and intellectual order of spiritual development; Buddhism contributed to political and ethical life;  A Confucianism derived from the Analects and the Mencius gradually supplied norms and techniques of governance; and indigenous beliefs continued to provide spiritual sustenance in both villages and the royal court. The uniquely Vietnamese Trúc Lâm school of Zen was a representative synthesis: it followed Buddhism while linking spiritual practice with responsibility toward the community and the country.

This may be regarded as a major Opening Up of the Vietnamese as a people permitted by an age of self-rule: knowledge received from outside was transformed into national capacity and a distinct cultural dynamic passed on from generation to generation. The solidarity displayed in the face of the Mongol–Yuan invasions of the 14th Century showed that the royal court, the nobility, the villages, and the army could coordinate efficiently with one another when the country confronted an existential threat. Although the historical and symbolic dimensions of the Diên Hồng Conference where the ruling Dynasty decided to fight back on behalf of the entire people must be elevated in contemporary esteem, it nevertheless gave rise to the memory of a moment when state power had to seek a consensus of values and personal commitments extending far beyond royal courtyards.

Yet this era of Buddhist influence should not be romanticized. The social order remained hierarchical, power belonged to a minority, ordinary lives remained precarious, and dynastic struggles between and within families never disappeared. This classical Opening Up created a high point of civilization for the Vietnamese people, but it did not yet constitute freedom and citizenship in the modern sense. The lesson for Vietnamese today is not to replicate the Lý–Trần model, but to recognize and apply once again its ability to receive multiple intellectual sources without allowing any one of them immediately to monopolize the spiritual life of the people.

The twenty years of Ming colonial rule which followed the collapse of the Tran Dynasty were shorter than the earlier centuries of Chinese domination, but the intensity of foreign control, exploitation, and cultural destruction was particularly severe. Responding to that ordeal, the Lam Sơn uprising did not merely recover political authority; it also created a new language of legitimacy. The Proclamation of Victory over the Wu placed Benevolence and Righteousness alongside consciousness of territory, customs, history, and civilization as essential for the Vietnamese capacity to Endure. It’s author, Nguyễn Trãi transformed resistance to foreign invasion into a moral proposition: bringing peace to the people was the standard of politics, and independence meant not merely replacing a foreign ruler with an indigenous one but restoring the full dignity of a civilized community deserving a status equal to that claimed by Chinese Neo-Confucian mandarins and scholars

The new capacity for Vietnamese Enduring produced by this cycle of invasion, repression, resistance, and re-assertion of national autonomy was a clearer consciousness of what a state should be and of what constituted its legitimacy. Yet the early Lê rulers subsequently strengthened centralized monarchy, the legal order, and Mencian Confucianism. This organizational capacity that helped stabilize the state also narrowed the social and cultural options permitted by the more pluralistic space which had prevailed during the previous period. A collective capacity that liberated the country from foreign domination could become a force for concentrating power domestically once peace had been restored.

This cycle shows that oppression does not automatically generate a fulsome Maturing of a people. Only when leadership, organization, a moral language, and the capacity for institutionalization are present can wounds from the past be transformed into bringing forth and then supporting a new, more consequential, stage of national development. Even then, the fruits of liberation may carry with them the seeds of rigidity in centralizing power in the state and its preferred elite families. Defeating foreign invasion and building a mature political community are related capacities, but they are not the same.

3. Civil Wars, Southward Expansion, and the Formation of a Multivector Vietnamese Identity

The prolonged conflicts beginning int he late 1500s between the Lê and Mạc clans, the Trịnh and Nguyễn clans, and the Tây Sơn brothers fighting Prince Nguyễn Ánh exhausted the Vietnamese, while also opening new realities of regional expansion, trade, and cultural interchange. The southward expansion down from the Red River Delta and contiguous provinces cannot be told solely as the Vietnamese people’s journey of territorial enlargement. It is also a history of dispossession, adaptation, and profoundly unequal coexistence involving the Chăm, Khmer, indigenous peoples, and the Minh Hương community of Chinese fleeing the Manchu Qing Dynasty. A mature common history must contain both pride in national expansion and  memories of those communities who paid a price for that expansion.

Through the stage by stage pioneering movement southward, Vietnamese identity became more multilvectored. The “Five Quảng Provinces” bore the strong imprint of interaction with Chăm culture; the far South, including the Mekong River Delta, brought encounters, conflicts, and mixtures among Vietnamese, Khmer, Chinese, Chăm, and other communities. The commercial talents of the Chinese Minh Hương settlers , the Mạc Cửu, and regional trading networks showed that the South provinces were not simply an extension of life in the Red River Delta. It was a new social space in which Vietnamese identity continued to take shape through contact with other identities. Three dialects of spoken Vietnamese emerged: one in the Red River Delta, another in the central provinces along the coast of the South China Sea, and a third north and south of the two branches of the mighty Mekong River.

In each civil war, every protagonist constructed its own legitimacy, heroes, villains, and created it own victims. The Tây Sơn rebels may be viewed as a force that, in the late 18th century, broke the old order, unified much of the country under their rule, and defeated a foreign invasion; Prince Nguyễn Ánh, who defeated the Tây Sơn to establish his own Nguyen Dynasty, may be viewed as the ruler who completed the territorial unification of the country while opening the door for an increasingly conservative dynasty to reign from the city of Hue in Central Vietnam. Neither side consisted only of light or darkness. Nguyễn Huệ of the Tây Sơn defeated the Qing forces in the north, but the Tây Sơn army also devastated Gia Định in the south; Nguyễn Ánh relied upon foreign assistance to help him defeat the Tây Sơn, but this alone cannot erase him from the history of national construction.

This was not yet an ideological division in the twentieth-century sense, but it already put in place the prehistory of a binary habit: the victor turning himself into the sole legitimate historical current, while the defeated were expelled from authorized memory. When history is told only in the language of the victorious, a people loses not merely the truth of the defeated side, but also the ability to understand itself in full. Excluded memories do not disappear; they survive within families, regions, and communities that carry forward a sense of dispossession.

What this episode of the recurring cycle produced was an expanded national territory, the development of trade, and a Vietnamese identity that became regionally diverse and so complex. What it cost was human life, social trust, and the ability to build a form of legitimacy recognized by multiple communities. Endurance through division preserved a common territorial space, but it could not by itself heal the wounds inflicted by Vietnamese upon one another. Those fractures would reappear in different forms in the twentieth century.

4. The Nguyễn Dynasty and the Colonial Period: Unification, Delayed Reform, and the Reception of Modernity

The Nguyễn dynasty organized a unified state across an extensive territory, completed its administrative system, and sought to establish sovereignty. The nineteenth century for Vietnamese cannot be understood merely through use of the label “reactionary,” because the ruling dynasty had to govern a country needing discipline due to its having emerged from a prolonged civil war, weakened by deep regional differences, and facing unprecedented external pressures.

Yet as the world entered the age of industrialization and colonialism, the Hue royal court turned strongly towards Neo-Confucian orthodoxy, using old Chinese categories of thought to interpret an entirely new balance of power with the arrival of French expansionists. What had once helped organize the state and consolidate order was no longer sufficient to identify the nature of the new challenge. Vietnam faced not merely a stronger army, but an entire new civilizational system driven by science, industry, trade, maritime power, and a type of state capable of mobilizing resources on a scale far beyond that achieved by traditional Asian dynasties.

Nguyễn Trường Tộ represented a notable “counter-history”—a possible response for Vietnam that was proposed  but never realized. Through The Great Tendency of the World, the Eight Urgent Proposals, and dozens of other petitions, he did not merely recommend purchasing machinery or learning Western techniques. He sought to change education, the recruitment and use of talent, administrative organization, the economy, the legal order, and the Vietnamese understanding of the world. He understood that preserving the country required, first of all, recognizing how profoundly the world had changed.

This tragedy cannot be reduced to the story of a genius rejected by ignorant men. The court lacked the money and the capacity for implementation; the bureaucracy defended established interests; wounded national pride turned into cultural defensiveness; Nguyễn Trường Tộ’s Catholic identity and personal connections aroused suspicion. More fundamentally, Vietnam lacked a reform coalition powerful enough to establish priorities, gather talent, and transform knowledge of the future into a national program.  

Perceiving the danger was not enough. There also had to be institutions capable of listening to those who perceived it. No Meiji restoration came to the rescue of the Vietnamese.

Like Vietnam, in the 1860s Japan also lacked capital, faced pressure from the West, and was constrained by an old intellectual order. Yet the Meiji leadership created a reform coalition, accepted the dismantling of many privileges, and directed scarce resources according to the priority of building “a rich country and a strong army.” This comparison is not intended to idealize Japan’s path, still less to condemn the Vietnamese as an inferior people. It simply reveals the system advantage that comes from having a few individuals who could see the future and possessing a structure of power capable of using them.

The capacity that had once permitted the stability of the Nguyễn dynasty hardened into a limitation on its prospects  at precisely the moment when national survival required another kind of envisioning and organizing. This is a characteristic example of the paradox of Endurance: what once helped a community preserve order may obstruct its ability to renew itself when renewal becomes necessary; national pride that once protected identity may become a refusal to acknowledge the arrival of a new reality; loyalty to tradition may become a fear of admitting that tradition can no longer provide good answers for how best to respond to a new situation.

French colonial rule brought forth for Vietnamese a period of lost sovereignty, colonial exploitation, and racial stratification. Every discussion of the impacts and effects of that French “civilizing mission”  to enlighten and uplift the Vietnamese must begin with that reality of coercion.

Yet the impress of Colonial rule was not unidirectional. Cities, the press, the Romanized Vietnamese script, new schools, laws, science, and global trade created channels of modernization that the Vietnamese actively appropriated in order to better resist the colonial regime itself. Instruments introduced to facilitate colonial rule gradually became means for the formation of a new public, a new political language, and new ways of imagining the nation.

Phan Châu Trinh placed the advancement of popular knowledge and the development of social capacity as the first priority in reasserting national self-governance before the direct use of violence. Phan Bội Châu sought national salvation through the Đông Du movement and connections with other Asian cultures. Phạm Quỳnh saw the Vietnamese language as the repository of the national soul which could use it to survive and outlast the French intrusion in another instance of the Vietnamese capacity for Endurance.. The Đông Kinh Free School, the Duy Tân movement, the printed press, and modern literatur created an unprecedented and very modern space for public discussion. Ideas concerning citizens’ rights, the nation, science, education, and the role of the individual began entering social life, opening competing possibilities for Vietnam’s future.

The “golden generation” of Western-educated Vietnamese intellectuals did not share a single political orientation. Some followed nationalism, some chose communism, and others served different governments; many placed patriotism and the aspiration for modernization above loyalty to any single doctrine. This multivectorism must be recovered for Vietnam to prosper in the twenty-first century.

Tạ Quang Bửu provides a verifiable example: he participated in the revolution against French colonial rule from August 1945 but did not join the Communist Party until July 1947. A single example cannot support a generalization about an entire generation, but it is sufficient to prevent us from equating patriotic motivation with a pre-existing ideological conversion. For many intellectuals of the period, the nation was the point of departure; doctrine was a path chosen in its service.

What the period of Western colonialism produced was a modern language, a new intellectual class, the capacity for global communication, and new ideas of citizens’ rights, nationhood, and science. What it cost the Vietnamese was sovereignty, resources, human lives, and the opportunity for autonomous development. These two dimensions do not cancel one another out. Civilization did not prevent the oppressive nature of colonialism; but oppression could not entirely forestall the growth of creative capacities among the colonized.

The deeper lesson is that external knowledge generates an internal capacity only when the Vietnamese appropriate it, debate it, and translate it into the language of needs that they themselves define. Not everything introduced from abroad represents progress; neither does every foreign influence threaten national identity. The decisive question is whether the community possesses sufficient autonomy to select, transform, and use it.

5. From 1945 to the Present: Revolution and Counter-Revolution, Two Vietnams, and Remembered Experiences Yet to Be Reconciled

The August 1945 Revolution against the return of French governance mobilized an aspiration for independence that extended far beyond the communist constituency. During the following decades of war, communism provided organization, discipline, and an appealing vision of equality. Yet along with Cold War polarization, domestic repression, land reform, ideological control, and political monopoly, Communism also produced profound wounds.

The story of this period cannot be told monochromatically as a victorious resistance against foreign invasion. Nor can it be reduced to the story of a society subjected entirely to one-party coercion. Patriotism, revolutionary faith, organizational power, the intervention of great powers, and fear were all present. History becomes difficult to understand precisely because very different motivations could bring people into the same ranks, while people sharing the same patriotism were driven onto opposing sides.

During the thirty years from 1945 to 1975, the Vietnamese were not fighting a single war. At least four wars overlapped: the struggle for independence from colonial rule; the conflict between competing national projects; the ideological war embedded in the structure of the Cold War; and a conflict fought among international powers on Vietnamese territory.

If any one of these four dimensions is absolutized, history is denied. To describe the entire conflict only as a “war of national resistance” obscures the moral and civilizational conflict among the Vietnamese themselves. To call it solely a “civil war” diminishes the powerful aspiration for independence and the scale of conflict associated with great-power interventions and subventions. To characterize it entirely as a proxy war denies the agency, responsibility, and choices of the Vietnamese forces themselves. A mature reading must be broad enough to weave these difficult truths together.

The Republic of Vietnam governing from Saigon must be studied as a legitimate chapter in Vietnam’s history of modernization. It left memorable experiences in education, the press, law, the market economy, and international engagement; at the same time, it could not divorce itself from political instability, external dependence, war in the villages, and considerable limits on democratic processes. Military defeat does not erase the value of studying that very Vietnamese experience. The Saigon government in its own way was an expression of Vietnamese Endurance. Excluding the Republic of Vietnam from learned history impoverishes the common memory and prolongs the feeling among millions of people that their symbolic homeland has been taken from them.

South Vietnam itself contained many currents and cannot be reduced to a singularity of “puppets” or “nationalists.” Some opposed communism as a very intentional political choice; some staked their hopes on building a non-communist democracy; some joined peace movements or Third Force groups, or opposed foreign intervention; others were simply trying to protect their families in wartime.

Neither was North Vietnam a completely homogeneous political entity. Differences existed within the Communist Party concerning policy, the degree of international dependence, and the conduct of the war. Outside the Party, patriotism, revolutionary loyalty, fear of power, and the instinct for survival existed in society. A person could sincerely sacrifice for independence without fully understanding the apparatus he or she served; another could use an ideal just as a means to acquire power.

The histories of the two post 1954 Vietnams therefore cannot be reduced to a simple story of patriots on one side and traitors on the other, of complete autonomy versus complete dependence, or of absolute justice versus absolute injustice. Both sides were affected by great powers; both included people who sacrificed for what they believed to be the national interest; both committed errors, engaged in coercion, and contained unrealized possibilities. Realizing this does not mean distributing responsibility equally or erasing differences. It only restores to history its inherent complexity.

After 1975, Vietnam was unified territorially but its various memories were not reconciled. The transformation of private commerce, re-education camps, the exodus of boat people, the command economy, and the system of privileging certain political family backgrounds left a deep divide between victors and defeated, and between those in Vietnam and those overseas. The victors held unilateral power to authoritatively define the past, but they had no power to make the private memories of the defeated disappear from history.

Administrative centralization did not automatically become a unification of hearts. Military victory did not automatically produce national reconciliation.

The reforms of 1986 then opened an important door. Economic reality forced ideology to retreat; individual initiative, the household economy, and international integration were gradually restored. Farmers, household businesses, enterprises, and social networks released some of the capacities that had previously been constrained. The reforms demonstrated that Vietnamese society could recover rapidly when initiative was returned to the people. They also showed that solutions previously condemned as ideologically wrong could become paths to national rescue when reality could no longer be denied.

Yet market reform was not accompanied by a corresponding reform of governing power providing for the rule of law and accountability for officialdom. Economic growth, however, created a middle class and new resources, but it also generated inequality, crony capitalism, environmental destruction, and insecurity among workers. When the market is opened but regulatory power remains off-limits to citizens, initiative and agency may be liberated in the economy while continuing to be restricted in politics and intellectual life.

The development of overseas Vietnamese communities, the internet, smartphones, artificial intelligence, and Generation Z is now extending the Vietnamese space beyond national borders and the state’s monopoly over information. Ordinary people possess unprecedented capacities to learn, speak, create, and connect, but they must also confront surveillance, disinformation, and increasingly sophisticated forms of manipulation. The state is no longer the only actor capable of producing and disseminating knowledge; yet society does not automatically become wiser merely because more information is available.  All this shows Vietnamese Endurance, once again, adapting, repositioning, and overcoming.

Modern day Maturation for Vietnamese is therefore not an outcome already achieved. It is an ongoing undertaking: integrating the memories of the two Vietnams without equalizing responsibility; recognizing overseas Vietnamese as part of the national community; giving younger generations the right to participate; and building institutions through which society can detect and correct obvious errors without waiting for a crisis to destabilize elite practices

After many repetitive cycles of repression followed by Openings Up, the question is no longer merely how the Vietnamese have survived the centuries. The more important question now is how far the capacities that have enabled Vietnam to survive can carry the nation.

CONCLUDING NOTE TO PART I

Looking back across these historical cycles, there is no formula according to which “a people oppressed for long enough will automatically open itself.” Challenges may generate solidarity, but they may also generate fear; acculturation under pressure may expand a culture, but it may also produce dependence; centralized power may rescue a community in times of upheaval, but it may also suffocate creativity when it becomes the normal condition.

History does not automatically transform suffering into wisdom. A people may endure for a very long time while continuing to repeat old cycles of suffering under new names.

Endurance is therefore not a capability, which, once possessed, keeps on serving a people’s deepest needs as circumstances for them change. Every age poses a different question of survival. When the principal danger is foreign invasion, the capacity to contract, disperse, and then reunite may save the community. But when the danger lies in stagnation itself, in technological dependence, in the exhaustion of public trust, and in a structure of power incapable of correcting itself, old methods of survival may no longer be sufficient and may even become obstacles to finding happiness.

Only when memory is subjected to reflection, knowledge encounters institutions, and power accepts limits can the experience of Endurance become the starting point for Maturation. The past then ceases to be either a burden to be carried or a glory to be worshiped; it becomes a repository of experience out of which paths to the future may be thoughtfully chosen.

The history examined in this part has identified the sources, turning points, and wounds of Vietnam’s journey from Endurance to now having a chance for Maturation to bring about its good works. The next part of this essay will examine more deeply the capacity for Endurance itself: what created the exceptional resilience of the Vietnamese people, and why the resilience that once saved them may sometimes become a limitation preventing them from moving toward Opening.

Who Is Behind Vietnam’s “Red Guards” And Why?

Professor Stephen B. Young, JD

Global Executive Director

The Caux Round Table for Moral Capitalism

Political denunciations continue to spread, despite Directive No. 07 and even the Party leader’s public advocacy of intellectual openness. If this divisiveness is merely the spontaneous personal extremism of a few unsettled, reactionary, Vietnamese “Red Guards,” why have they been able to make one attach after another  without being restrained? Who is helping  them? Is there a mastermind with an agenda for Vietnam behind them? 

The Roman patriot Marcus Tullius Cicero taught us to always ask: “Cui bono?” – who benefits?

The Vietnamese people will not benefit from accusations and intimidation; they will not benefit from economic stagnation or for falling behind other countries in technology and AI

But who might benefit when the descendants of Lac Long Quan and Au Cu are subjected to a seemingly endless war of one against another?

One thousand years slaves to Chinese thieves

One hundred years under French domination

Twenty years this war day after day

Our Mothers’ legacy – a forest of dried bones

Our Mothers’ legacy – a mountainous graveyard

– Trinh Cong Son

1. When a Book Becomes a Battlefield

The denunciations starting with criticism of the book Conversations with Thanh (Chuyện với Thanh) have ceased to be a literary controversy. They have become a testing of the balance of power within Vietnam’s political system. Beginning with several passages in the book, the attacks quickly expanded to encompass the author, the publisher, newspapers, writers and artists, as well as those suspected of having sponsored or protected the work.

Yet another “literary inquisition” has been opened—following dozens of similar cases in this long-suffering country. But books themselves do not appear to be the ultimate target of the protests. No; something more profoundly Vietnamese is under attack.

After Conversations with Thanh, the investigation of deviations spread to older works, competing interpretations of history and even officially recognized literary institutions. Nguyễn Quang Thiều, President of the Vietnam Writers’ Association, also became a target. The debate was no longer about whether this or that work was good or bad, or which facts were correct or incorrect. Instead, the accusers wanted to know which side the author supported and who was “standing behind” him.

This is the commonplace strategy of every political denunciation campaign: instead of refuting an idea, one criminalizes the author’s motives; instead of discussing the truth, one tests his loyalty. It’s a simple-minded use of ad hominem arguments – arguments which can prove nothing but which use words just to separate one from another.

Gustave Le Bon observed that building a civilization requires creative minds, while destroying one needs only an agitated crowd. Such a crowd need not fully understand what it claims to defend. It needs only be given an enemy, a slogan and the conviction that it embodies righteousness.  This is the use of infantile emotions, not adult rationality.

Today’s Vietnamese “Red Guards” need neither red armbands nor copies of Mao’s Little Red Book. They use Facebook, TikTok, YouTube and politically guided forums. Yet their basic method remains unchanged from that Chinese precedent: remove a sentence from its context, attribute a political motive, invent a “traitor” and mobilize a crowd to execute that person’s reputation.

What is particularly striking is that this campaign has continued even after the Politburo issued Directive No. 07 to strengthen discipline, regulate public statements and curb manifestations of political arrogance within the system. One might have expected a Politburo directive would have been sufficient to make even the most extreme partisans retreat. Instead, the opposite appears to have occurred: new fronts in the denunciation campaign continue to be opened.

Who, then, has given Vietnam’s new “Red Guards” such confidence—and such arrogance?

2. When Even the Party Leader Is Being Muzzled

General Secretary and President Tô Lâm has repeatedly spoken of liberal education, science and technology, intellectual renewal and a new “era of national resurgence.” Yet while he speaks of openness, Vietnam’s intellectual space is being constricted. While he calls for renewal, works offering interpretations of history different from the official narrative are subjected to public denunciation.

This disobedience can no longer be dismissed as a handful of isolated . It suggests that there may be forces openly obstructing—or even muzzling—the messages of the Party’s own leader.

If the participants in these campaigns were merely a few hundred self-mobilized “red bulls”—Vietnamese slang for aggressive online ultra-nationalists—they would hardly be able to open one front after another, drawing in newspapers, mass organizations, and patronage networks  without encountering a decisive institutional response. It would be even harder to explain why Directive No. 07 has failed to halt this “red tide.”

Who stands behind them? Who gives them direction, provides their platforms and guarantees their political safety? Why do they believe they have the authority to pass judgment on official institutions, senior cadres and established writers and artists? And why has a General Secretary and President who has accumulated power to a degree rarely seen in modern Vietnam been unable—or unwilling—to make them stop?

The very necessity of asking these questions suggests that Tô Lâm’s power is less than it appears.

He may control many offices, but that does not necessarily mean that he can master all the differing networks of power embedded within his regime. These networks of individuals have developed over many decades, incorporating members of the propaganda apparatus, military, police, mass organizations, politically connected businesses and foreign relationships, collegial networks which do not appear  on any official organization chart.

Nor can one exclude the possibility that Tô Lâm once sought to use conservative tendencies within the regime to eliminate rivals and consolidate his own power. Once released from their restraints, however, these factions may have developed a momentum of their own, eventually even seeking to limit even the agenda which the General Secretary claims as his own, adopted in order to bring the Vietnamese people into a ‘new era”.

3. Who Benefits When stilled waters are Stirred Up?

In every political crisis, the most important question is not merely who started it, but who benefits from it.

The Vietnamese people certainly do not. While society is drawn into bitter arguments over a sentence in a book, the problems affecting daily life are pushed out of the public debate: economic hardship, exhausted businesses, a stagnant property sector, unemployment, the deteriorating quality of education and healthcare, fines exceeding the financial capacity of many families and an administrative apparatus that, despite being streamlined, has in some places become even more burdensome.

Writers and artists do not benefit either. A society in which every author must wonder which sentence might be extracted and used as evidence against him cannot produce great works. If an artist cannot speak the truth, he can at least refuse to participate in telling lies. In an atmosphere of political denunciation, however, even silence can be interpreted as a political position.

In the long run, the regime itself does not benefit. When loyalty replaces competence, informing replaces criticism and the crowd replaces the rule of law, the system loses its ability to correct its own mistakes. The “bacteria” described by Le Bon as eating away at a civilization cannot infect a healthy organism; they flourish only after such a communal body has been weakened from within.

But an external power that wants Vietnam to remain unstable, incapable of meaningful reform and unable to build a new national consensus, would benefit enormously from divisiveness which Vietnamese would impose on themselves.

Such a power would not need to create every denunciation campaign directly. It would need only to exploit existing divisions, magnify fears and resentments, encourage those discomfited by change and encourage such factions to believe that each is rightly fighting to save the status quo which they esteem or which protects them.

A country consumed by fighting a “spiritualized” civil war will lack the intellectual capacity to look outward and towards the future. A nation that continues to argue over the victors and the vanquished of half a century ago will find it difficult to formulate a strategy for the next half-century. And a leadership forced constantly to contain internal conflicts will struggle to pursue a genuinely independent foreign policy.

There is no need to name that external power. One need only look at the compass and ask: Who has always preferred a Vietnam that does not collapse, but remains neither strong enough nor sufficiently united to escape its orbit?

Three historical events deserve attention.

First, according to my Father who was there as a senior American diplomat, in 1954 at the Geneva Conference on ending France’s colonial war in Indochina, the decision to divide Vietnam into two potentially warring states was proposed by Beijing and then accepted by Paris.

Second, according to my friends, colleagues of South Vietnamese Ambassador Nguyen Van Kieu in Taipei, in early 1975, as North Vietnamese troops were advancing south towards Saigon, Ambassador Kieu forward to his brother, South Vietnam’s President Nguyen Van Thieu a proposal from Beijing. Beijing promised that, if Thieu should terminate South Vietnam’s alliance with the United States, China would then come to the defense of South Vietnam  and oppose Hanoi’s invasion. Thieu refused the offer.

Third, also in 1975, on April 30, according to scholar George J. Veith, retired French Major General Paul Vanuxem met South Vietnamese President Dương Văn Minh at Independence Palace and urged him to hold out for at least another twenty-four hours, publicly break with the United States and seek Chinese protection. According to several witnesses present at the meeting, Vanuxem suggested that China would pressure Hanoi to accept a ceasefire and might intervene militarily.

Veith also cites former South Vietnamese diplomat Nguyễn Xuân Phong, who claimed that Beijing’s proposed “muscle” would consist initially of two Chinese airborne divisions landing at Biên Hòa under the cover of a French-led international force. 

(“China and the Fall of South Vietnam: The Last Great Secret of the Vietnam War,” published by the Wilson Center’s History and Public Policy Program on February 9, 2022)

4. Two Faces of a Single Strategy

The unexplained sinking of the Vietnamese flagged boat Khôi Nguyên 18 near Fiery Cross Reef in the South China Sea offers a revealing example of a bifurcated strategy. 

In a humanitarian intervention, Chinese naval personnel rapidly rescued most of the Vietnamese crew. This service  demonstrated that China was truly a great power capable of reaching the scene most rapidly and maintaining a permanent presence around Fiery Cross Reef.

This display of “kindness” towards Vietnamese in distress contrasts with China’s conduct toward the Philippines: the use of water cannons, dangerous collisions, the obstruction of resupply missions and intimidation of Filipino fishermen. These two forms of conduct may appear inconsistent, but they might be two faces of a single strategy of projecting power to achieve political ends.

The Philippines openly aligns itself with the United States and protests China’s coercive behavior towards its territories in the South China Sea; it must therefore be disciplined by China. On the other hand, China bestows on Vietnam simultaneous applications of courtship and enticement, but also intimidation, because Beijing does not want to push Hanoi completely into Washington’s embrace.

One country is shown the price to be imposed for disobedience. The other is reminded of the supposed benefits of remaining subordinate to China’s influence.  In Vietnam’s case the proffered blandishments are made available to Vietnamese who might be tempted to take advantage of them.

5. Two Spearheads and an Invisible Hand

In the present conflict, the propaganda apparatus and some admirers of military leaders such as Lieutenant General Hoang Kien and Major General Nguyen Thanh Tuan have emerged as the two most visible spearheads promoting systemic destabilization in Vietnam

The propaganda apparatus claims a form of social capital – the authority to define orthodoxy: which account of history is correct, who qualifies as a patriot, which works are “deviant” and which ideas carry the danger of “self-evolution.” Elements of veterans’ organizations possess a different form of symbolic capital: moral credit for suffering the sacrifices of war and the political legitimacy that comes with victory.

When these two sources of cultural power combine, an innocuous literary debate can immediately be transformed into a political prosecution. The questions quickly become no longer wherein a work may be right or wrong, but to which faction does the author belongs, whether he has insulted the past, and who authorized the work to appear.

There is no public evidence proving that these forces are receiving direct instructions from abroad. But strategic influence does not necessarily operate through overt contractual commitments. It can travel abroad, carried by ties of ideological affinity, personal relationships, drawn in by factional interests and the instinct for self-preservation among those who fear losing their status if the country reforms.

The invisible hand behind the campaign need not control every piece on the chessboard of protests. It need only ensure that the competition works in its favor.

The propaganda apparatus defends its monopoly over truth. The ultra-nationalist groups defend an interpretation of history that sustains their political status. The “red bulls” discover a sense of power through denunciation. Political factions use literary inquisitions to identify and eliminate their opponents.

Their motives may differ, but the consequences converge: society is divided, reform is obstructed, Tô Lâm is kept in a state of continual political confrontation and Vietnam remains caged within an ideological orbit embracing some of its people but originating abroad.

6. One Directive No. 07 Is Still Not Enough

Directive No. 07 may regulate public statements, restore discipline and temporarily silence certain individuals. But an administrative directive cannot cure dysfunctions bred by the structure of power itself.

To end political arrogance of some over others, monopoly over what is true must first be abandoned. To prevent denunciation campaigns, the right to debate must be protected. To neutralize external influence, Vietnam must build transparent institutions in which no factional network can invoke patriotism to silence others.

The most dangerous hand is not necessarily one openly reaching in from outside. More dangerous is the hand that, out of public view, has found other hands inside the country willing to act on its behalf.

When that happens, an order to foment dissent does not need to cross a border; a campaign does not need to carry a foreign name; and Vietnamese citizens can still invoke patriotism while helping others keep their own country trapped forever in a stagnant waters.

It appears that one Directive No. 07 is still not enough.

But how many more directives will this nation need before it realizes that the problem lies not only with those stirring up a froth, but also with the stagnant pond that has long given them personal peace and prosperity?

And how much longer must this nation continue to suffer such damnation?

An Aircraft Carrier, And A Sunken Ship: A Strategic Test For Vietnam’s Diplomacy?

By Dr. Dinh Hoang Thang (Fellow, The Caux Round Table)

• In today’s maritime disputes, strategic advantage no longer belongs to the country with the stronger legal right. Increasingly, it belongs to the country maintaining the more timely and sustained presence at sea.

• Today major powers ask not only which partner a country chooses, but also  how efficiently that country operates according to credible standards—and so whether it is worthy of long-term strategic trust.

[Dr. Dinh Hoang Thang, a retired Ambassador and former senior official of the Vietnamese Foreign Ministry, has kindly agreed to support the Caux Round Table’s initiative to consider the implications of Vietnam’s evolving enhancements in economic developments, civic dialogue, and administrative reforms. Ambassador Thang’s insights and understanding of strategic contexts are remarkable and provide practical guidance for all interested in the future of Vietnam and of Vietnamese/American reciprocal relationships of mutual benefit.]

 Introduction

Rarely has the South China Sea witnessed such a rapid succession of developments within such a short period of time.

Without any right under international law, China has once again unilaterally imposed its annual fishing ban across a vast expanse of the South China Sea. Encounters between Chinese maritime forces and Vietnamese fishermen continue to occur. 

Second, the Vietnamese transport vessel Khoi Nguyen 18 sank near the Spratly Islands. 

Third, the nuclear-powered American aircraft carrier USS George Washington arrived in Da Nang following joint operations with Japan and the Philippines. 

Fourth, at almost the same time, Washington increased commercial pressure on Hanoi through higher tariffs and stricter scrutiny of supply chains.

At first glance, these appear to be unrelated events. Taken together, however, they reveal a broader strategic reality: security, sovereignty, and economics are no longer separate policy domains. They have become increasingly intertwined in shaping Vietnam’s strategic environment.

 I. ARE TENSIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA JUST AD HOC AND INCIDENTAL OR IS COMPETION FOR MASTERY OF THOSE WATERS ENTERING A NEW STRATEGIC PHASE?

Viewed individually, each of the above developments might seem more or less accidental. Considered chronologically, however, they point to something more strategically significant. What is changing is not merely the frequency of incidents in the South China Sea, but the manner in which major powers are simultaneously employing military capabilities, economic leverage, and diplomatic influence to shape the strategic environment surrounding Vietnam.

Without open access to the entire South China Sea, what can Vietnam hope for in promoting its economy in the coming decades?

In the northern part of the South China Sea, China continues to enforce a unilateral fishing ban covering waters that Vietnam considers to fall within its exclusive economic zone and continental shelf under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). 

A detailed 1794 British navigation map of the South China Sea shows no land feature in the sea with a Chinese name while other features and cities are shown with Malay, Vietnamese or English names.

In 1837, Father Jean Louis Taberd wrote in the Journal of the Asiatic Society of Bengal that Gia Long, Emperor of Dai Viet in 1816 “went with solemnity to plant his flag and take formal possession of [the Paracel Islands}, which is not likely any body will dispute with him”

(The journal of the Asiatic Society of Bengal. Calcutta :Bishop’s College Press,1832-1936 v.6:pt.2=no.67-72 (1837): p. 745, https://www.biodiversitylibrary.org/item/123871)

Vietnam’s Fisheries Association has repeatedly protested these measures. Meanwhile, reports of Chinese maritime authorities confronting, expelling, assaulting, and confiscating fishing equipment from Vietnamese fishermen continue to emerge, reinforcing a persistent sense of insecurity among coastal communities that depend on these traditional fishing grounds for their livelihoods.

Against this backdrop, the sinking of Khoi Nguyen 18 near the Spratly Islands immediately attracted international attention. According to reporting by The New York Times, the vessel was supporting projects intended to strengthen Vietnam’s logistical presence in the Spratly archipelago. Vietnamese authorities have attributed the accident, at least preliminarily, to severe weather conditions. To date, no publicly available evidence justifies conclusions beyond those officially released.

Nevertheless, the fact that the incident occurred in close proximity to Chinese-controlled and heavily militarized features gives it significance extending well beyond that of an ordinary maritime accident.

Then, less than a week later, the USS George Washington Carrier Strike Group entered the South China Sea after concluding joint operations with Japan and the Philippines before making a port call in Da Nang.

Taken together, these developments suggest that the South China Sea is entering a new strategic phase  where military competition, geopolitical influence, and competing visions of regional order intersect.

II. AN AIRCRAFT CARRIER AND A SUNKEN SHIP

The arrival of USS George Washington in Da Nang was far more than a routine naval port visit. 

Before calling at Vietnam, the carrier strike group had conducted joint operations with Japan and the Philippines across the Western Pacific and the South China Sea. The strategic messages from Washington in making this naval deployment was unmistakable: the United States intends to maintain a sustained military presence in the Indo-Pacific while strengthening its network of regional partners in support of freedom of navigation and a rules-based maritime order and that the United States looks favorably on Vietnam’s right and ability to contribute to the sustainability of that freedom under a rules-based international order

For Vietnam, receiving another U.S. aircraft carrier demonstrates Hanoi’s continued commitment to expanding defense cooperation with a wide range of partners within its long-standing foreign policy of independence, self-reliance, diversification, and multilateralization. 

More significant than the visit itself, however, is the strategic context in which it occurred—immediately following a series of heightened tensions in the South China Sea and amid intensifying strategic competition among the major powers.

If USS George Washington symbolizes power projected from outside the region, the sinking of Khoi Nguyen 18 points to a very different strategic reality. Today’s competition in the South China Sea is measured not only by the number of warships deployed or diplomatic statements issued, but increasingly by a country’s capacity – say China’s – to maintain a continuous and effective presence on the ground—or, more precisely, at sea.

(Consider the analogous situation in the Strait of Hormuz – Iran’s capacity to maintain a continuous threat to freedom of navigation through the Strait)

According to publicly available information, Khoi Nguyen 18 sank near Fiery Cross Reef, close to one of China’s largest military installations in the Spratly Islands. Chinese authorities reported that they had rescued most of the crew, while Vietnam publicly expressed appreciation for the rescue operation. From a humanitarian perspective, saving lives at sea is a universal obligation that deserves recognition regardless of sovereignty disputes or political differences.

Yet beyond this humanitarian dimension lies a broader geopolitical reality. China’s ability to reach the accident site more rapidly than any other actor reflects something far more significant than an efficient rescue capability. It reflects the extensive military infrastructure, logistical support, coast guard assets, and maritime forces that Beijing has built over the past decade on the artificial islands under its control. That unilaterally imposed permanent hegemonic presence has fundamentally altered the operational realities in large parts of the South China Sea.

The strategic lesson to be learned from these recent events, therefore, lies not in speculation about why the Vietnamese vessel sank. Rather, it lies in what the incident reveals about the evolving nature of maritime competition. In contemporary territorial disputes, strategic advantage belongs not only to the side with the stronger legal claims under international law, but increasingly to the side capable of maintaining the most persistent presence, responding the fastest to events, and exercising the greatest degree of practical control over contested waters.

In this sense, USS George Washington and Khoi Nguyen 18 inadvertently illustrate two dimensions of the same strategic picture. One reflects the growing involvement of external powers in preserving the regional balance of power. The other demonstrates that competition for effective presence is unfolding every day in the disputed waters themselves.

Facing these two dynamics, Vietnam must respond to a challenge that extends beyond defending its sovereignty. The more difficult task is to strengthen its own maritime presence while ensuring that isolated incidents do not become catalysts for wider strategic confrontation among the major powers.

III. WASHINGTON’S DUAL MESSAGE

On the one hand, a focus on the visit of USS George Washington, might lead one to conclude that Washington is placing renewed emphasis on the military dimension of its relationship with Vietnam. Yet, on the other hand, when this deployment is considered alongside recent American policy developments in bilateral trade, a more comprehensive picture emerges. U.S. policy toward Vietnam is no longer operating on two separate tracks—security on one hand and economics on the other. Increasingly, the two have become integrated components of a single more comprehensive strategic framework.

From a security perspective, Washington’s message to officials in Hanoi and all other nations is relatively straightforward. As China continues to expand its military and maritime presence throughout the South China Sea, the United States seeks to demonstrate that it remains a decisive balancing power in the Indo-Pacific, with Freedom of navigation operations, expanded defense cooperation with Japan and the Philippines, and the port visit of USS George Washington, all reinforce Washington’s commitment to preserving a regional order based on international law, where both large and small states are entitled to exercise their lawful rights at sea.

At precisely the same time, however, the United States has been sending Hanoi a second—and arguably more consequential— bilateral message. Rather than focusing on naval deployments, this message concerns Vietnan’s domestic economic governance. Washington has intensified its scrutiny of Vietnamese exports through investigations into rules of origin, tariff circumvention, forced labor, and direct inspections of manufacturing facilities participating in global supply chains. Combined with recently announced tariff measures, these actions suggest that the United States is no longer evaluating Vietnam solely as a rapidly growing trading partner. Increasingly, it is assessing the comity, transparency, and credibility of Vietnam’s economic institutions.

At first glance, these two messages may appear contradictory. On the one hand, Washington is strengthening defense cooperation with Vietnam; on the other, it is imposing more self-interested economic conditionalities. However, In reality, they are mutually enforcing American national concerns – one military and the other economic.

The United States seeks a Vietnam that is sufficiently capable to contribute to a stable balance of power in Southeast Asia. At the same time, it also seeks a Vietnam that is sufficiently capable of meeting the standards regarded in Washington as essential for a long-term strategic partnership between the two peoples: transparent supply chains, compliance with international trade commitments, stronger regulatory governance, and reduced vulnerability to opaque production networks closely linked to China. In other words, Vietnam is being evaluated not only according to its geopolitical location and its regional responsibilities, but also according to the compatibility  of its development model with global standards today and with future advancements in the quality of goods and services, technologies, and openness of markets.

This more comprehensive American approach reflects an evolution in American strategic thinking. For many years, defense cooperation and economic cooperation were often treated as relatively separate policy domains. Today, that distinction is becoming increasingly blurred.  As Vietnam becomes more important to the United States – perhaps becoming A Comprehensive Strategic Partner, the country’s value to the United States will be judged not merely by the number of high-level exchanges or naval visits, but by its capacity to uphold predictable rules, safeguard the integrity of international commerce, ensure transparency in global supply chains, and adapt to the evolving norms governing the international economic system.

For Hanoi, therefore, the strategic test of national success extends well beyond skillfully balancing diplomatic relations among major powers. It increasingly depends upon Vietnam’s ability to undertake domestic reforms that correspond to an international environment undergoing profound transformation. In this context, diplomacy and institutional reform can no longer be viewed as separate agendas. A country’s international credibility is becoming inseparable from 1) the quality of its domestic governance as deployed in achieving excellent economic performance – and 2) from its capacity to translate international commitments into consistent national practice – to “walk its talk”.

Ultimately, in the twenty-first century, major powers are no longer asking only where a country stands on issues of the moment. They are also asking how well that country is governed, whether its institutions operate according to internationally credible standards, and whether it can be trusted as a reliable strategic partner over the long term.

Conclusion:

In his remarks ahead of the 33rd Diplomatic Conference, Foreign Minister Le Hoai Trung reaffirmed the implementation of Politburo Resolution No. 06-NQ/TW, emphasizing that Vietnam’s external relations and international integration must advance in close coordination with the country’s internal development. This formulation raises an intriguing possibility. Might Vietnam eventually move beyond a diplomacy centered primarily on balancing external relationships toward what could be described as “timely diplomacy”—a diplomacy capable not merely of adapting to geopolitical change, but of recognizing historical shifts early enough to shape national strategy accordingly?

For many years, Vietnam’s foreign policy has succeeded in preserving a delicate strategic balance among the contending major powers while steadily expanding the country’s international partnerships. That achievement has given Vietnam an important strategic asset—one that deserves to be preserved. Yet as competition among the major powers increasingly shifts away from direct military confrontation toward rivalry over technology, supply chains, trade standards, and the capacity to shape regional order, maintaining balance alone may no longer be sufficient to advance and protect the interests of the Vietnamese people.

If the phrase “bamboo diplomacy” is indeed appearing less frequently in Vietnam’s official discourse, the more significant question is not whether a slogan is fading, but whether Vietnamese diplomacy is gradually entering a new stage of strategic thinking. 

Recent developments—including the prominent participation of the newly appointed U.S. Ambassador at a high-level political event attended by Vietnam’s senior leadership—may be viewed as signals worth noting well. Even so, it would be premature to interpret such transactional episodes as evidence of a new foreign policy doctrine. In diplomacy, genuine strategic change is rarely announced overnight; it is revealed through the consistent accumulation of decisions, priorities, and policy behavior over time.

Such a strategic transformation for Vietnam, if it should emerge, would not abandon the principles that have guided Vietnam’s diplomacy for decades. Rather, it would represent their evolution. Strategic balance would remain essential, but it would no longer be the ultimate objective. The larger goal would be to anticipate structural changes in the international system, strengthen the nation’s long-term resilience, and expand Vietnam’s capacity to shape—not merely respond to—the external environment in ways that serve its enduring national interests.

Success in achieving that, perhaps, is the most consequential strategic test facing Hanoi today.

When “Four Strategic Shifts” Collide With A “Tsunami” Of Public Denunciations 

HOANG TRUONG 

Hoang Truong is an associate of the Caux Round Table in Hanoi, a specialist most familiar with world affairs and an insightful observer of Vietnam’s foreign policies and global challenges.

There is no need to wait until the conclusion of the Third Plenum of the 14th Central Committee to understand its importance. General Secretary and President To Lam’s opening address alone provides sufficient material to identify an increasingly serious contradiction in the politics of Vietnam. On one hand, the Party leader speaks of modern governance, a knowledge-based economy, technology, human development, national resilience, and social trust. On the other hand, the Vietnamese people are being emotionally hammered by a “tsunami” of public denunciation, in which questions concerning history, culture, and ideas can quickly be turned into political accusations, while academic debate is pushed into the realm of national security.

[for the Vietnamese source see: https://dangcongsan.vn/xay-dung-dang/toan-van-phat-bieu-khai-mac-cua-dong-chi-tong-bi-thu-chu-tich-nuoc-to-lam-tai-hoi-nghi-trung-uong-3-khoa-xiv.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com]

Beginning with Nguyen Thanh Nam’s book Conversations with Thanh, this wave is now spreading to controversies surrounding the figure of “Saint Tran.” The target may have changed, but the method of disparagement remains largely the same: select a few sentences from an author, remove them from their context, attribute wrong-headed political motives to the author, mobilize the press and social media to condemn the writer, and then compel the institutions, organizations, and persons concerned to distance themselves from such thinking, disavow the author, or engage in self-criticism for having failed to “do the right thing”. Old fashion public loudspeakers have now been digitalized into thousands of social-media accounts, but the accusatory tone, the politics of labeling, and the psychology of going with the crowd still bear the imprint of an era that was thought to have passed.

 

1. FROM CONVERSATIONS WITH THANH TO A DIGITAL CULTURAL REVOLUTION 

 

The case of Conversations with Thanh reveals the alarming extent to which this mechanism has spread. Nguyen Thanh Nam was prosecuted; those involved in the book’s publication were disciplined; and 23 media organizations that had published articles about the book faced penalties, including one whose license was revoked. FPT University, associated with the author under attack, also quickly issued a statement denying any involvement in the writing and publication of the book and declaring its opposition to the author’s views.

Regardless of whether the book is right or wrong, it is no longer being treated primarily as an intellectual product to be assessed through historical evidence, reasoned argument, and academic responsibility. Instead, it has become the focus of a political and media campaign whose reach extends far beyond the work itself.

 

What is disturbing is not merely the fate of one author. Even more dangerous is the precedent now being established for Vietnam’s “new era” as announced by General Secretary To Lam: any interpretation of potentially anything which differs from an “orthodox” historical narrative may be regarded as a threat to the regime; anyone who, say, introduced or reviewed a book, or simply provided a forum for its discussion, may also be held accountable for deviation from orthodoxy. In such an atmosphere, fear precedes thought. Publishers become afraid to publish, journalists become afraid to discuss, universities become afraid to defend freedom of inquiry, and intellectuals learn that the safest course is silence.

 

It is difficult not to see in this process the shadow of China’s Cultural Revolution in the 1960s and 1970s. Vietnam today is, of course, not yet Maoist China: there are no Red Guards storming private homes, no mass public humiliations, and no struggle sessions conducted in precisely their old form. But the Cultural Revolution was not merely theater with costumes; it was, above all, a method of exercising power. That method transforms intellectual disagreement into political guilt, mobilizes the crowd to punish individuals, equates loyalty with the repetition of doctrine, and places symbols of authority beyond the reach of scholarly inquiry.

Understood in this sense, what is unfolding in Vietnam resembles a “digital Cultural Revolution.” The new Red Guards no longer wear red armbands but hide behind online accounts. Public loudspeakers are no longer merely mounted on street poles; they now reside in everyone’s mobile phone. A verdict is delivered by the court of public opinion before academic debate is even allowed to begin. When an entire society is mobilized to hunt down a sentence, a book, or a particular way of referring to a historical figure, the real objective is no longer to defend the truth. It is to compel everyone to look at the past through a single pair of eyes.

 2. VIETNAM IN 2026 IS NOT CHINA IN 1966 

Vietnam in 2026, however, is not China in 1966. This is a difference that no national leader can afford to ignore. Maoist China was a relatively closed society whose people had little access to outside information, while its economy was barely connected to global value chains. Vietnam today depends on exports, foreign investment and imported technologies, educational cooperation, global financial markets, and the confidence of international partners. Every act of intellectual repression immediately crosses national borders and becomes part of the evidence used by external businesses, universities, governments, and international organizations to assess Vietnam’s openness, risks of doing business, and the predictability of its institutions.

The digital equivalent of public loudspeakers and struggle sessions may therefore produce temporary silence, but its long-term cost is the erosion of trust. Citizens cease to believe that the law protects their right to debate. Intellectuals cease to believe that their good faith will be respected. Businesses can no longer be certain where the boundary between professional activity and political risk lies. International partners must also ask whether a country aspiring to become a center of innovation can genuinely accommodate independent minds, or whether a sudden outbreak of ideological anger can overturn every previous commitment to openness.

Seen against this background, the “four strategic shifts” outlined by To Lam at the Third Plenum expose an even wider gap between rhetoric and reality. He called for improving the Party’s leadership capacity and the operational quality of the state apparatus; achieving unified governance of the country’s development space; establishing a growth model based on productivity, knowledge, technology, and human beings; and strengthening national resilience, adaptability, and protection. These are all reasonable objectives. 

But not one of them can be achieved in a society groveling in fear.

A knowledge economy cannot be born from obedience. Technology cannot develop sustainably if people are encouraged to produce only the soothing compliments their superiors want to hear. Productivity is not simply a matter of working hours or the amount of machinery invested; it also depends on the ability to analyze, recommend, criticize, experiment, and correct mistakes. Nor can national resilience be built by eliminating every dissenting voice, because a system deprived of contrary information gradually loses its ability to recognize its own errors.

Most notably, To Lam called on members of the Central Committee to express “clear positions, clear arguments, clear recommendations, and clear policy options.”

But why should the right to articulate clear positions be reserved only for those Vietnamese seated inside the Central Committee’s conference hall? A society of 100 million people, including millions of intellectuals, entrepreneurs, teachers, scientists, and overseas Vietnamese, must also have the right and even the duty to present views, arguments, and alternative policy choices. If debate within the Party is considered necessary to improve decision-making, then debate within society must be regarded even more strongly as a national resource for avoiding mistakes.

Further, To Lam demanded that every choice made by Party and Government leaders at all levels place the interests of the nation, together with the lawful and legitimate rights and interests of the people, above all else. At the same time, he emphasized the need to consolidate social trust. But such trust cannot be created by directive, still less through punishment. Trust emerges only when citizens see power exercised consistently, when the law is predictable, and when their legitimate rights are not narrowed according to political circumstances. A state that calls upon intellectuals to contribute while making them afraid to write books is destroying the very resource it seeks to mobilize.

 3. VIETNAM CANNOT INTEGRATE WITH THE WORLD WHILE CLOSING ITS OWN SOCIETY 

This contradiction becomes even clearer when compared with the messages To Lam has delivered in his international engagements. On American soil, he spoke of development as something that cannot be separated from the broader currents of humanity. More recently, he has tentatively approached the concept of “liberal education,” emphasizing the awakening of human potential rather than coercion and indoctrination. Although his language remains cautious, it nevertheless suggests that Vietnam’s leader understands that the country cannot enter the age of knowledge with an educational system designed merely to produce obedience.

Yet these tentative signs of openness repeatedly encounter an invisible wall. Certain ideas expressed before foreign audiences become blurred or disappear when official media publish the speeches at home. “Liberal education” is mentioned and then quickly placed under ideological suspicion, partly because the concept was once associated with the educational tradition of South Vietnam before 1975. An idea that should be judged by its present value is instead investigated according to its historical “political background.” The ghosts of ideology continue to prevent the country from embracing even those ideas that its own leaders understand to be beneficial, even necessary.

No country today can develop in isolation from the currents of humanity. Those currents consist not only of capital, markets, technology, and production chains. They also include academic freedom, the right to ask questions, the relative autonomy of universities, professional journalism, the rule of law, and the ability of civil society to exist. Vietnam cannot selectively embrace the material achievements of modern civilization while rejecting the intellectual and institutional conditions that made those achievements possible.

 

There is nothing wrong with Vietnamese leaders seeking a state visit to Washington. Expanding Vietnam’s relations with the United States and the West is also consistent with the country’s strategic interests. But partnerships in the twenty-first century cannot be built solely through diplomatic ceremonies or multibillion-dollar contracts. A genuinely attractive Vietnam must be one that its partners can trust, where citizens can breathe, intellectuals can speak, and businesses are not forced to search for invisible political boundaries behind every professional decision.

 4. “SAYING ONE THING AND DOING ANOTHER”: A SYSTEMIC DISEASE 

To Lam concluded his speech by demanding an end to the situation in which “policies are correct, but institutionalization is slow, implementation is undisciplined, and results remain limited.” Perhaps he should add an even more serious disease: policies are articulated in the language of openness, while power continues to operate according to the inertia of a closed system. When this happens, the problem is no longer simply the gap between resolutions and implementation. It is a conflict within the system itself: one faction seeks development through knowledge and international integration, while another continues to defend its cultural and administrative powers through control and fear.

How much longer must Vietnam and its people remain trapped in this contradiction? When will the country’s leaders fully recognize that Vietnam cannot invite the world to cooperate while suffocating intellectual life at home; that they cannot speak of liberal education while allowing society to be submerged in denunciation; and that they cannot call for the restoration of public trust while citizens continue to witness a government that says one thing and does another?

The proposed four strategic shifts will ultimately become no more than four formulas in a political speech unless they are accompanied by a more  important shift, perhaps the most important shift of all: a transition from governing through fear to nation-building through freedom, the rule of law, and trust.

The Regressive Anomaly Of Our Time: Who Is Really Afraid Of Marx?

The central question facing all Vietnamese today is whether Vietnam possesses enough confidence to accept the competition of ideas as a force for development. Marx, after all, was never afraid of contradiction. In every age, it is those who hold power who most fear contradiction.

Hoang Thang Dinh

Ph.D. in Political Science; Fellow of the Caux Round Table

History sometimes produces anomalies – unnecessary inconsistencies and contradictions that become visible only when a political order faces a decisive turning point. A ruling party founded upon Marxism-Leninism may continue to proclaim its loyalty to that doctrine in every official document, while in practice steadily suppressing the very force that Marx regarded as the source of all development. Seen from this perspective, perhaps the greatest paradox in Vietnam today is not that Marxism is feared, but that Marx’s own personal intellectual dialectic is.

This is not merely a play on words. If one sets aside the familiar conventions surrounding revolution, dictatorship, and class struggle, the philosophical core of Marx’s thought revolves around a single question: how does society develop? His answer was clear. Every social order contains contradictions within itself. Change arises from the meeting up  of opposing forces and their mutual antagonisms, while absolute uniformity leads not to progress, but to stagnation.

The question, therefore, is not whether contemporary Vietnam continues to invoke Marxism-Leninism as an official doctrine. It plainly does. The more important question is whether a political system can remain faithful to Marx while attempting to remove contradiction, silence competing ideas, and reduce social life to hearing only a single authorized voice.

That contradiction between Marxist dogma and Marx’s philosophy of the natural law bringing about human evolution lies at the heart of Vietnam’s present dilemma.

1. What Did Marx Actually Say About Human Development?

Marx did not invent the social dynamic of dialectics. He inherited it from Hegel and transformed it by shifting its center of gravity from the realm of spirit to the material and social world. Yet whatever differences separated Marx from Hegel, the central proposition remained intact: there can be no movement without addressing contradictions and no development without conflict between what exists and what is struggling to emerge.

Hegel proposed a natural law of change.  A fixed logic – the thesis – comes into being. Then, in a fluid ecosystem, a counter-logic appears – the anti-thesis. Next, the thesis and the anti-thesis interact and meld their truths one with the other to create a new logic or truth – the synthesis. And then the cycle repeats itself: the synthesis becomes a new thesis which begets a new anti-thesis, which then combine into a second generation synthesis, which …

Thus, from a Hegelian approach, any contradiction between a thesis and an anti-thesis is only an interim waystation on the road to successful innovation and the future.  It is to be welcomed as step forward for humanity.

Hegel’s dialectic conforms nicely to the Second Law of Thermodynamics which holds that any energy state which does not flow degenerates. The isolated system – a thesis – cut off from innovation and new energy flows (anti-theses) succumbs to entropy whereby its internal energy is decomposed and becomes useless chaos.  Such an isolated system ultimately loses all productivity and so becomes useless.

For Marx, contradiction was therefore not simply a system defect to be eliminated. It was the driving force of history. Without tension inside the forces and relations of production, there would be no structural transformation of the economy over time. Without conflict between old institutions and new social realities, there would be no political change. Without disagreement between competing interpretations, there would be no advance in human understanding.

Dialectics, in this sense, is not a philosophy of unanimity. It is a philosophy of forward movement generated by differences.

Long before Marx, similar intuitions appeared in the civilizational wisdom of Asia. An old Chinese saying observes that “on the Yangtze River, the waves behind push forward the waves ahead”. The Vietnamese express the same insight more simply: “when old bamboo dies, new shoots rise”. Both images point to a universal law of life. Renewal occurs because the new emerges, challenges the old, and eventually transforms or replaces it.

A river without new waves becomes stagnant water. A society without new ideas gradually loses its vitality.

In fact, the Vietnamese have applied a Hegelian approach to nature for more than 2,000 years as part of their national identity – Truong Ton Dan Toc.  Their origin myth brings together a paternal figure – Lac Long Quan – with a maternal figure – Au Co – to meld their different energy orientations and so bring forth a unique new ethnicity.

Separately, the Truong Ton Dan Toc included a sophisticated balancing of different energy flows in the melding of Yang and Yin forces, Yang being the thesis and Yin the anti-thesis, and the 62 normal configurations of both energies constituting a set of differing syntheses.

Modern history offers repeated confirmation of this dialectic. In science, major discoveries often begin with the rejection of what had previously been accepted as truth. In economics, new firms and new technologies continuously displace established models. Joseph Schumpeter later described this process as “creative destruction,” the dynamic through which capitalism renews itself by dismantling obsolete arrangements and creating new ones.

The language differs, but the underlying principle is strikingly similar: without difference, there is no innovation; without challenge, there is no renewal.

This raises an unavoidable question. What happens when a society no longer accepts the existence of opposing forces? What happens when criticism is treated primarily as a political risk, debate is progressively narrowed, and difference itself becomes something to be monitored and controlled?

Under such conditions, social life does not merely become intellectually poorer. The very mechanism of development that Marx regarded as fundamental is disabled. The contradiction between theory and practice becomes even sharper when the political system responsible for suppressing disagreement continues to claim Marx as its ideological foundation.

It is precisely at this point that the anomaly of contemporary Vietnam reveals itself.

A genuinely dialectical society would not fear contradiction. It would institutionalize a process to constructively exploit contradiction, regulate it through law, and transform it into a source of correction and renewal. It would understand that disagreement is not necessarily disloyalty, that criticism is not automatically hostility, and that competing ideas are not enemies of national unity.

By contrast, a system that treats every significant difference as a threat may preserve outward conformity for a time, but it does so by weakening its own capacity to learn and grow stronger. It eliminates not only dissent, but also the warning signals through which errors are detected before they become crises.

This is why the issue reaches far beyond how best to interpret Marx. It concerns the conditions under which any modern society is capable of development. A nation cannot enter the knowledge economy while suppressing the social processes through which knowledge is tested. It cannot call for innovation if it fears intellectual independence. It cannot celebrate dialectics in theory while abolishing contradiction in practice.

The essential question, then, is no longer whether Marxism remains present in official discourse. The question is whether those who speak most frequently in Marx’s name are prepared to accept the principle at the very center of his thought: that development begins when opposing forces are allowed to exist, interact, and generate something new.

2. The Greatest Irony: Governing in Marx’s Name While Abandoning Marx’s Method

If Marx was correct that contradiction is the engine of historical development, then contemporary Vietnam presents a puzzle that deserves careful examination. The issue is not whether Marxism-Leninism continues to occupy a privileged place in official ideology. It clearly does. The more fundamental question is whether the governing method increasingly contradicts the very philosophical principle upon which Marx built his understanding of history. It is here that one encounters perhaps the greatest irony of Vietnam’s contemporary political development.

According to Marx, contradiction was never an unfortunate defect that society should eliminate. Quite the opposite. Contradiction was the source of movement, adaptation, and renewal. Social systems evolve because competing forces interact with one another, exposing weaknesses, correcting errors, and generating new possibilities. Development therefore requires tension—not permanent conflict, but the continuous encounter between different perspectives capable of producing higher forms of organization and understanding.

Measured against that standard, today’s Vietnam appears to be moving along a remarkably different path. Over time, the public space available for intellectual diversity has become progressively narrower. Journalism exercises less independent scrutiny than before. Civic organizations function within carefully defined limits. Scholars, artists, entrepreneurs, and policy specialists have all learned that some questions are best avoided and some conclusions are wiser left unstated. The significance of this trend lies not in any individual case, but in the broader political culture it gradually creates: one in which conformity offers security while intellectual divergence carries increasing uncertainty.

Such a development is not difficult to understand from the perspective of political power. Governments naturally seek stability. They attempt to reduce uncertainty, minimize social disruption, and preserve institutional coherence. These are legitimate objectives of governance. The difficulty begins only when stability gradually becomes indistinguishable from uniformity, and when the absence of disagreement comes to be interpreted as evidence of political success.

At precisely that moment, however, another process quietly unfolds beneath the surface. A political system may become more orderly, yet simultaneously lose part of its capacity for self-correction. Independent criticism becomes rarer. Alternative analyses disappear from public debate. Institutions hear fewer warnings before policy mistakes accumulate into structural weaknesses. What appears externally as consensus may, in reality, conceal a growing decline in the system’s ability to learn from its own experience.

Seen through Marx’s own dialectical framework, this outcome is deeply ironic. What is being reduced is not merely criticism of particular policies, but the social existence of opposing forces themselves. Yet Marx never regarded opposing forces as enemies of development. He regarded them as its indispensable condition. A society that removes contradiction from public life also removes one of the principal mechanisms through which historical progress becomes possible.

The paradox becomes even more striking as Vietnam enters what its leaders describe as a new era of national advancement. Official strategy now emphasizes innovation, digital transformation, artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, private enterprise, and global competitiveness. These aspirations are entirely understandable. No country can hope to prosper in the twenty-first century without embracing scientific creativity and technological innovation. Yet history has never produced an innovative economy within an intellectually homogeneous society.

Here lies the paradox within the paradox. Competition is encouraged in markets, but competition among ideas remains far more constrained. Technological innovation is celebrated, while intellectual innovation often encounters institutional hesitation. Entrepreneurs are encouraged to challenge old business models, but society remains considerably less comfortable when citizens challenge established assumptions in public life. The result is an increasingly visible gap between the economic imagination required for modernization and the political imagination permitted within the public sphere.

Eventually, theory and practice begin moving in opposite directions. A nation may continue to invoke Marx as the philosophical foundation of its political legitimacy, while simultaneously narrowing the very conditions under which Marx’s dialectical method could actually operate. In that situation, dialectics survives primarily as doctrine rather than as a living method of understanding reality. Contradiction is praised in textbooks but discouraged in public life.

Perhaps this is the deepest irony confronting Vietnam today. The central issue is no longer whether some citizens criticize Marxism. The more revealing question is whether a political system that continues to govern in Marx’s name remains willing to accept the single principle that gives Marx’s philosophy its enduring intellectual vitality: that societies develop not by eliminating contradiction, but by allowing competing forces to interact, challenge one another, and ultimately produce something better than either could achieve alone.

3. Innovation Begins Where Conformity Ends

One of history’s greatest ironies is that many of civilization’s most transformative revolutions did not begin in royal palaces, government ministries, or the headquarters of powerful institutions. They began in places so ordinary that they seemed almost invisible. A suburban garage. A university laboratory. A rented apartment. A dormitory room. Again and again, history reminds us that the future rarely announces itself from the center of established power. More often, it arrives quietly from its margins.

When Bill Gates imagined that every office and every household would one day possess its own personal computer, the idea struck many observers as wildly unrealistic. When Steve Jobs insisted that technology should become an extension of human creativity rather than merely a calculating machine, established companies saw little reason to take him seriously. Years later, Elon Musk was widely dismissed for arguing that electric vehicles could redefine the automobile industry and that private companies could compete in space exploration. Their proposals often sounded less like business plans than acts of intellectual audacity.

The remarkable fact is not that these individuals encountered skepticism. Every genuinely original idea does. The remarkable fact is that these men lived in societies capable of distinguishing between disagreement and disloyalty. They were free to fail, free to be criticized, and equally free to prove that conventional wisdom had been mistaken. Their greatest protection was not political influence or inherited privilege. It was an institutional environment that accepted intellectual deviation as a normal condition of progress.

This pattern extends far beyond Silicon Valley. Galileo challenged the cosmology of his age. Charles Darwin overturned centuries of established assumptions about the origins of life. Albert Einstein transformed modern physics by questioning concepts that had appeared settled since Newton. Tim Berners-Lee changed the architecture of global communication with an invention whose significance few initially recognized. In every generation, history advances because someone is willing to ask questions that the majority has not yet imagined.

The lesson is remarkably consistent. Innovation is never produced by unanimous agreement. It emerges from continuous competition among ideas. Some fail. Many disappear. A few fundamentally reshape the world. The decisive factor is not whether every new idea is correct, but whether society provides sufficient intellectual space for better ideas to emerge, compete, and eventually replace inferior ones. This process is precisely what Joseph Schumpeter described as “creative destruction”—the permanent renewal of society through challenge rather than repetition.

This is why the world’s most innovative nations share certain institutional characteristics. Their universities enjoy substantial intellectual autonomy. Their scientific communities encourage rigorous criticism rather than ritual agreement. Their entrepreneurs regularly challenge established industries. Their journalists question those who govern. Their courts protect lawful dissent. None of these institutions exists because disagreement is inherently desirable. They exist because history repeatedly demonstrates that societies capable of correcting themselves invariably outperform societies that merely preserve appearances of consensus.

Vietnam now stands before precisely this historical reality. The country can import advanced technologies, attract foreign investment, construct modern infrastructure, and acquire sophisticated machinery. Yet none of these imports will on their own automatically produce innovation. The most valuable strategic resource of the twenty-first century is neither oil nor rare earth minerals nor financial capital. It is the human capacity to think independently, to imagine alternatives, and to challenge inherited assumptions before circumstances force change from outside.

This reality raises a question far more fundamental than industrial policy or technological strategy. Can a gifted Vietnamese student pursue an unconventional scientific hypothesis without fearing that intellectual independence itself may become a liability? Can a young entrepreneur openly challenge established methods without first calculating the political acceptability of new ideas? Can scholars engage in serious debate over national development without every disagreement being interpreted primarily through the lens of political conformity? These questions reach beyond individual freedoms. They concern the creative capacity of the nation itself.

Perhaps this brings us back, unexpectedly, to Marx. If contradiction constitutes the engine of historical development, then every society aspiring to innovation must ultimately decide whether it views intellectual diversity as a strategic asset or as a political risk. The answer to that question will determine far more than the future of academic debate. It may well determine whether Vietnam succeeds in building a genuine knowledge economy or merely acquires the outward technologies of one.

For nations do not become innovative simply because they purchase advanced machines. They become innovative because they cultivate citizens who are unafraid to think differently. History has rarely rewarded societies that perfected conformity. It has consistently rewarded those confident enough to allow new ideas to challenge old certainties before the rest of the world does it for them.

4. Strong States Do Not Fear Independent Minds

Perhaps the deepest misunderstanding in modern politics is the assumption that political stability demands intellectual conformity; that political stability and intellectual paralysis are essentially one and the same reality. History suggests precisely the opposite. The strongest states have rarely been those that eliminated disagreement. They were the ones that developed institutions capable of absorbing disagreement, learning from it, and transforming it into better public policy.

This distinction is more important than it first appears. Every government seeks stability; no responsible state welcomes chaos. Yet stability achieved through institutional resilience differs fundamentally from stability achieved through intellectual uniformity. The former grows stronger because criticism exposes weaknesses before they become crises. The latter often appears solid until accumulated errors suddenly reveal how little corrective capacity remains beneath the surface.

Modern constitutional government developed precisely from this insight. Independent courts, professional journalism, autonomous universities, competitive elections, civic associations, and open policy debate were never designed simply as expressions of individual liberty. They evolved because societies gradually discovered that governments, like markets, make mistakes. Institutions capable of identifying those mistakes early became one of civilization’s greatest political innovations.

In this respect, political systems resemble living organisms more than mechanical machines. A healthy immune system does not weaken the human body by constantly identifying abnormalities. It protects the body by detecting danger before it becomes irreversible. Public criticism performs a remarkably similar function within political communities. It identifies institutional blind spots, challenges obsolete assumptions, and exposes emerging risks before they mature into national failures. Silence, by contrast, is not always a sign of health. Sometimes it merely indicates that the immune system itself has ceased to function effectively.

This may explain why societies that appear highly stable often prove unexpectedly fragile when confronted with profound change. Systems accustomed to hearing only agreement gradually lose the capacity to recognize reality as it evolves. Information becomes increasingly filtered. Honest feedback becomes progressively rarer. Decision-makers receive reassurance precisely when they most need correction. Under such conditions, crises seldom emerge because criticism was excessive. More often, they emerge because criticism arrived too late.

Vietnam’s long-term challenge therefore extends well beyond economics or technology. The country undoubtedly requires investment, infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, and scientific capability. Yet none of these achievements can fully substitute for institutions capable of continuous self-correction. Sustainable national development ultimately depends not only upon the efficiency of government but also upon the quality of feedback available to government itself.

Perhaps this returns us once again to the anomaly with which this essay began. A confident political order does not fear competing ideas because it understands that ideas, unlike conspiracies, become stronger or weaker through open examination. Only weak arguments require permanent protection from criticism. Strong arguments improve precisely because they survive criticism.

The question for a political system is what kind of “order” it should seek and institutionalize. There is a continuum of systems of order – from chaos and anarchy, at one pole, to a paralyzing stasis hugging tight to inertia at the other pole.  The most constructive and vital systems of order lie in the middle of the continuum. Finding such fluid but confined systems requires searching for a Middle Way, an Aristotelean Mean or a Daoist Wu-Wei equilibrium.

The American Constitution with its system of checks and balances is just such a Mean in the distribution of power among those who hold different Hegelian Theses and Anti-theses.  The Federalist Papers explained how checks and balances worked to produce a system of dynamic order avoiding both anarchy and tyranny through moderate movements taking place within a bounded social setting.

In Federalist Paper #10 we read: “AMONG the numerous advantages promised by a well-constructed Union, none deserves to be more accurately developed than its tendency to break and control the violence of faction. … By a faction, I understand a number of citizens, whether amounting to a majority or a minority of the whole, who are united and actuated by some common impulse of passion, or of interest, adverse to the rights of other citizens, or to the permanent and aggregate interests of the community.”  Here James Madison associated “faction” with the seeking of power to dominate others living in the same community.

Factions, he said, arise from separations in the possession of social, economic, and political power. “From the protection of different and unequal faculties of acquiring property, the possession of different degrees and kinds of property immediately results; and from the influence of these on the sentiments and views of the respective proprietors, ensues a division of the society into different interests and parties. … It is of great importance in a republic not only to guard the society against the oppression of its rulers, but to guard one part of the society against the injustice of the other part. Different interests necessarily exist in different classes of citizens. If a majority be united by a common interest, the rights of the minority will be insecure.”

Federalist Paper #51 describes how checks and balances produce equilibrium among factions so that society as a whole benefits from the contributions of each faction:  “by so contriving the interior structure of the government as that its several constituent parts may, by their mutual relations, be the means of keeping each other in their proper places. …  Ambition must be made to counteract ambition. The interest of the man must be connected with the constitutional rights of the place. …  a subordinate distributions of power, where the constant aim is to divide and arrange the several offices in such a manner as that each may be a check on the other that the private interest of every individual may be a sentinel over the public rights.”

Where, in an operative Hegelian dialectic, different theses, anti-theses, and syntheses contend with each other in seeking approval and support, checks and balances are at work bringing about, over time, benefits for the entire society to share and enjoy. The central issue confronting Vietnam, therefore, is not whether intellectual diversity creates temporary discomfort. Every living society experiences disagreement. The more important question is whether the nation’s institutions possess sufficient confidence to transform disagreement into knowledge rather than interpreting it primarily as political risk. The answer to that question will shape far more than the future of public debate. It will determine the adaptive capacity of the Vietnamese state itself in a century defined by technological disruption, geopolitical uncertainty, and unprecedented rates of change.

For history leaves little room for ambiguity. Strong states are not those that succeed in silencing independent minds. Strong states are those confident enough to govern among them.

Conclusion

Ultimately, the question is no longer whether Vietnam remains faithful to Marxism-Leninism as an official doctrine. The more consequential question is whether it remains faithful to the single principle that gave Marx’s philosophy its enduring intellectual power: that development emerges through contradiction rather than conformity.

History has repeatedly demonstrated that scientific discovery, economic innovation, and political progress all begin with ideas that challenge established certainties. Societies prosper not because they eliminate disagreement, but because they possess the confidence to transform disagreement into knowledge, correction, and renewal.

The paradox confronting Vietnam today is therefore larger than Marx himself. A nation cannot aspire to become an innovation-driven economy while narrowing the intellectual space from which innovation naturally arises. Nor can it cultivate creative citizens while expecting them to think within predetermined boundaries.

The ultimate question is not who still speaks in Marx’s name. It is who still believes in the dialectical spirit that made Marx intellectually significant in the first place.

For Marx never feared contradiction.

History has never feared contradiction.

Innovation has never feared contradiction.

In every age, it is those with power who most fear contradictions.

Rethinking Political Legitimacy in Contemporary Vietnam

(Ideology, Performance, Public Trust, and Civic-National Identity)

Stephen B. Young and Hoang Thang Dinh

Author’s Note: This working paper is one outcome of an ongoing scholarly dialogue between Stephen B. Young and Dr. Hoang Thang Dinh, conducted in Caux, Rome, and Paris, on political legitimacy, public trust, and Vietnam’s civilizational development. It also forms part of a broader collaborative research project exploring the long-term resilience, civilizational maturation, and future path of the Vietnamese nation, which is currently being prepared for publication.

Introduction: The Puzzle

Political systems rarely transform through dramatic declarations. More often, they change first in the language through which they justify themselves. Before institutions evolve, political discourse begins to shift. Before doctrines disappear, they gradually recede from the center of public rhetoric. Contemporary Vietnam may now be entering such a transition.

This paper does not claim that Vietnam has entered a new political system, nor does it attempt to infer the intentions of individual leaders. It proposes a more modest hypothesis: that official political discourse in Vietnam may be undergoing a gradual rebalancing of its sources of legitimacy, from a language centered primarily on ideology and revolutionary history toward one increasingly grounded in governance, state capacity, economic performance, public trust, and civic-national identity.

The question is not whether ideology has disappeared. It has not. Marxism-Leninism, socialism, and the constitutional role of the Communist Party remain central to Vietnam’s formal political framework. The question is whether ideology continues to function as the dominant language through which political authority explains and justifies itself, or whether performance, trust, and national development have moved closer to the center of political legitimation.

1. What Is Political Legitimacy?

Political legitimacy refers to the belief that political authority is rightful, not merely powerful. A government may command obedience through law, bureaucracy, coercion, habit, or fear. Legitimacy, however, concerns something deeper: whether citizens, elites, and institutions regard authority as justified.

Max Weber’s classic typology distinguished among traditional, charismatic, and legal-rational legitimacy (Weber, 1978). David Beetham later argued that legitimacy depends on three connected elements: power must conform to established rules; those rules must be justified by shared beliefs; and there must be evidence of consent or acknowledgment by the governed (Beetham, 1991). Seymour Martin Lipset added an important modern dimension by linking political legitimacy to a regime’s capacity to maintain effectiveness and secure social acceptance over time (Lipset, 1959).

This paper builds on these traditions but adapts them to the Vietnamese case. It treats legitimacy not as a single source but as a layered structure. In Vietnam, four layers are especially important: ideological legitimacy, performance legitimacy, public trust, and civic-national identity.

Ideological legitimacy derives from doctrine, revolutionary history, and official narratives of political purpose. Performance legitimacy derives from the state’s ability to deliver growth, stability, security, development, and effective governance. Public trust concerns whether citizens believe that public institutions act fairly, competently, and in the common interest. Civic-national identity refers to the deeper relationship between citizens and the political community: the sense that public authority reflects the dignity, memory, values, and aspirations of the nation.

These layers are not mutually exclusive. They interact. Ideology may provide historical narrative. Performance may provide practical credibility. Public trust may provide moral confidence. Identity may provide belonging. The central question is how the balance among these layers changes over time.

2. Doi Moi and Vietnam’s First Legitimacy Transition

The transformation that began with Doi Moi in 1986 is usually understood as an economic turning point. Vietnam moved from central planning toward a socialist-oriented market economy while preserving one-party rule. This interpretation is historically correct, but analytically incomplete.

Viewed through the lens of political legitimacy, Doi Moi represented Vietnam’s first major legitimacy transition. Before Doi Moi, legitimacy rested primarily on two pillars: revolutionary legitimacy, derived from national liberation and reunification; and ideological legitimacy, grounded in Marxism-Leninism and the socialist project. During the decades of war and immediate postwar reconstruction, these sources reinforced one another.

The economic crisis of the mid-1980s changed this equilibrium. Inflation, shortages, declining productivity, and international isolation weakened the capacity of ideology alone to sustain political confidence. The challenge facing Vietnamese leaders was not only economic recovery. It was also the preservation of political legitimacy under dramatically changing domestic and international conditions.

Doi Moi did not abolish ideology. Rather, it added a new source of legitimacy: performance. Growth, poverty reduction, improved living standards, foreign investment, international integration, and social stability increasingly became part of the state’s claim to effective rule. Citizens were asked not only to believe in a revolutionary project but also to evaluate authority through tangible improvements in everyday life.

This interpretation is consistent with a significant body of scholarship on post-Doi Moi Vietnam. Carlyle Thayer, Martin Gainsborough, Benedict Kerkvliet, and especially Le Hong Hiep have shown that socio-economic performance became a crucial foundation of the Communist Party’s contemporary legitimacy (Thayer, 2010; Gainsborough, 2010; Kerkvliet, 2005; Le Hong Hiep, 2012). Doi Moi should therefore be understood not only as economic liberalization but also as an adaptive political strategy that enabled institutional continuity through developmental success.

The result was not democratization in the liberal constitutional sense. Nor was it ideological abandonment. It was a rebalancing: revolutionary history continued to provide symbolic authority, while economic performance increasingly provided practical credibility.

3. Is Vietnam Entering a Second Legitimacy Transition?

If Doi Moi marked Vietnam’s first legitimacy transition, an intriguing question now emerges: is the country entering a second?

This question must be approached cautiously. Political systems do not transform simply because official rhetoric changes. Nor should isolated speeches be treated as conclusive evidence of institutional evolution. Yet political discourse deserves careful attention because it often reveals changing priorities before those priorities become visible in law, policy, or institutional reform.

Recent official discourse appears to place increasing emphasis on a vocabulary different from that which dominated earlier decades. Themes such as administrative restructuring, institutional reform, technological innovation, digital governance, implementation capacity, infrastructure, competitiveness, growth, and national development seem increasingly prominent in major policy speeches.

This observation should be tested more systematically. A future version of this paper should include a content analysis of major leadership speeches from the late Nguyen Phu Trong period and the early To Lam period. The following categories could be coded across comparable speeches:

Category Examples of Terms to Code
Ideological references Marxism-Leninism, socialism, Ho Chi Minh Thought, Party-building, revolutionary tradition
Revolutionary legitimacy liberation, reunification, sacrifice, national independence, historical mission
Performance legitimacy growth, productivity, competitiveness, infrastructure, income, investment
State capacity institutional reform, administrative restructuring, implementation, efficiency, governance
Technology and modernization digital transformation, AI, science and technology, innovation, data governance
Public trust integrity, accountability, transparency, service to the people, public responsibility
Civic-national identity nation, people, Vietnamese aspiration, national rise, dignity, civilizational development

Such an analysis would help determine whether the observed shift is durable or merely rhetorical. It would also allow scholars to distinguish between three possibilities: continuity in new language, tactical adaptation, or a deeper rebalancing of legitimacy.

At present, the evidence remains preliminary. But the hypothesis is plausible enough to merit investigation. As Vietnam becomes more integrated into the global economy, its government faces challenges that cannot be addressed through ideological narratives alone: productivity, technology, demographic change, environmental stress, geopolitical competition, and institutional effectiveness. Under such conditions, performance naturally becomes more central to political justification.

4. Why Performance Alone Is Not Enough

Performance legitimacy has strengths. It forces governments to deliver. It links political authority to concrete outcomes. It may encourage reform, competence, and responsiveness. But performance is also conditional.

Growth can slow. Markets can change. External shocks can occur. Demographic trends can become unfavorable. Technological disruption can create new inequalities. A political system that relies too heavily on performance becomes vulnerable when performance declines.

This is why performance legitimacy cannot be a complete theory of political legitimacy. It answers the question: what has the government delivered? But it does not fully answer: for whom, toward what purpose, and under what moral obligations?

Here Stephen B. Young’s emphasis on public trust is crucial. The Roman question Cui bono?—who benefits?—remains central. Growth alone is not enough if its benefits are captured by narrow interests. Administrative efficiency is not enough if public authority serves itself rather than the public.

In the United States, for example, President Richard Nixon was impeached by the House of Representatives for abusing his trust in holding the office of President. The Impeachment Resolution in Article 1 concluded: 

In all of this, Richard M. Nixon has acted in a manner contrary to his trust as President and subversive of constitutional government, to the great prejudice of the cause of law and justice and to the manifest injury of the people of the United States.

Wherefore Richard M. Nixon, by such conduct, warrants impeachment and trial, and removal from office.

The idea of government as public trust has deep roots. Roman law treated public office as a responsibility exercised for the public good. John Locke developed this into a theory of government as fiduciary authority: officials hold delegated power on behalf of society and remain accountable to the purposes for which that authority was entrusted (Locke, 1689/1988).

This shifts the discussion from power to responsibility. Public authority is not legitimate merely because it is effective. It must be effective in serving the public good. It must be trusted as fair, competent, restrained, and oriented toward the welfare of the community.

Modern scholarship on trust reinforces this point. Francis Fukuyama emphasized the importance of social trust for prosperity and institutional performance (Fukuyama, 1995). Bo Rothstein argued that quality of government depends not only on capacity but also on impartiality, fairness, and institutional integrity (Rothstein, 2011). Public trust is therefore not decorative. It is a core element of durable legitimacy.

5. Which Identity? Clarifying the Concept

The concept of identity must also be clarified. Identity can mean many things: ethnic identity, cultural identity, national identity, political identity, civic identity, or civilizational identity. A paper on legitimacy cannot use the term loosely.

This paper does not use identity in an ethnic or racial sense. Nor does it reduce identity to cultural nostalgia. The relevant concept is civic-national identity: the relationship between citizens and the political community to which they belong.

Civic-national identity answers a fundamental question: why does this political order deserve my loyalty? It is not simply a matter of blood, ancestry, or tradition. It concerns whether citizens recognize themselves in the institutions, values, memory, dignity, and aspirations represented by the state.

Benedict Anderson’s idea of the nation as an “imagined community” remains useful here (Anderson, 1983). Charles Taylor’s work on recognition also helps explain why political communities require more than administration; they require acknowledgment of dignity and belonging (Taylor, 1994). (see also Ruth Benedict’s Chrysanthemum and the Sword on the political implications of Japanese identity.)

In the Vietnamese case, civic-national identity may be especially important because Vietnam’s political history has long been shaped by the struggle for survival, independence, unity, and dignity. Concepts such as sinh ton, truong ton, and truong thanh are not merely cultural expressions. They point toward a deeper question: what does it mean to be Vietnamese in the twenty-first century?

This is where identity becomes the deepest layer of legitimacy. Ideology may tell a story about history. Performance may deliver results in the present. Public trust may sustain confidence in institutions. But civic-national identity gives citizens a reason to see the state not as an external power but as an expression of their own political community.

In this sense, legitimacy is not inherited once and for all. It must be continuously earned. A state may survive through performance. But a political community endures through identity.

Conclusion: A Research Agenda

This paper has advanced a modest argument rather than a definitive conclusion. It does not claim that Vietnam has entered a fundamentally new political system, nor does it suggest that changes in official discourse necessarily indicate institutional transformation. It proposes a framework for examining how political legitimacy may evolve through changing relationships among ideology, performance, public trust, and civic-national identity.

From this perspective, Doi Moi may be understood as Vietnam’s first legitimacy transition, introducing performance as a central source of credibility alongside revolutionary and ideological legitimacy. Contemporary political discourse raises the possibility—still requiring careful empirical investigation—that Vietnam may now be entering a second phase, in which governance capacity and state effectiveness assume even greater importance.

Whether such a transition proves durable will depend on factors beyond performance alone. Governments may secure support through development, but enduring legitimacy rests upon something deeper: public trust, institutional integrity, and the ability of political institutions to embody the shared values and aspirations of the community they serve.

The principal contribution of this paper is not to offer a political judgment about contemporary Vietnam. Rather, it seeks to reopen a broader theoretical question: how do political systems adapt their foundations of legitimacy as societies, economies, and identities evolve?

Vietnam offers one important case through which that larger question may be explored.

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References:

Anderson, B. (1983). Imagined communities: Reflections on the origin and spread of nationalism. Verso. https://www.versobooks.com/products/1126-imagined-communities

Beetham, D. (1991). The legitimation of power. Macmillan. Beetham, David. (Một trong những công trình kinh điển về lý thuyết tính chính danh chính trị.)

Ruth Benedict, Chrysanthemum and the Sword (Mariner Books Classics; ‎ 2006)

Fukuyama, F. (1995). Trust: The social virtues and the creation of prosperity. Free Press. https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Trust/Francis-Fukuyama/9780684825250

Gainsborough, M. (2010). Vietnam: Rethinking the state. Zed Books. https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/vietnam-9781848135659/

Kerkvliet, B. J. T. (2005). The power of everyday politics: How Vietnamese peasants transformed national policy. Cornell University Press. https://bookshop.iseas.edu.sg/publication/763 (The Power of Everyday Politics: How Vietnamese Peasants Transformed National Policy)

Le Hong Hiep. (2012). Performance-based legitimacy: The case of the Communist Party of Vietnam and Doi Moi. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 34(2), 145–172. https://www.jstor.org/stable/41756339

Lipset, S. M. (1959). Some social requisites of democracy: Economic development and political legitimacy. American Political Science Review, 53(1), 69–105. https://cooperative-individualism.org/lipset-seymour_some-social-requisites-of-democracy-1959-mar.pdf

Locke, J. (1988). Two treatises of government (P. Laslett, Ed.). Cambridge University Press. Original work published 1689. https://www.yorku.ca/comninel/courses/3025pdf/Locke.pdf

Nathan, A. J. (2003). China’s changing of the guard: Authoritarian resilience. Journal of Democracy, 14(1), 6–17. https://nghiencuuquocte.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Authoritarian_Resilience.pdf

Rothstein, B. (2011). The quality of government: Corruption, social trust, and inequality in international perspective. University of Chicago Press. https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/Q/bo11632847.html

Taylor, C. (1994). The politics of recognition. In A. Gutmann (Ed.), Multiculturalism: Examining the politics of recognition (pp. 25–73). Princeton University Press. https://web.stanford.edu/class/polisci92n/readings/nov6.1.taylor.pdf

Thayer, C. A. (2010). Political legitimacy in Vietnam: Challenge and response. In J. London (Ed.), Politics in contemporary Vietnam: Party, state, and authority relations. Palgrave Macmillan. https://journals.sub.uni-hamburg.de/giga/jsaa/article/view/170/170.html

Weber, M. (1978). Economy and society: An outline of interpretive sociology (G. Roth & C. Wittich, Eds.). University of California Press. https://www.ucpress.edu/books/economy-and-society-2/paper

Young, S. B. (forthcoming). Moral government and public trust. Caux Round Table Working Paper. https://www.cauxroundtable.org/

Young, Stephen, “Public Office as a Public Trust: a suggestion that a fiduciary standard is implied in Impeachment for High Crimes and Misdemeanors”. Georgetown Law Review, 1975

The American Presidency Project, https://www.google.com/search?q=richard+nixon+articles+of+impeachment&rlz=1C1CHZN_enUS986US986&oq=richard+nicon+artic&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqCQgBEAAYDRiABDIGCAAQRRg

Suggested Reading:

David Beetham, The Legitimation of Power. https://www.jomswsge.com/pdf-207099-127014?filename=127014.pdf

Max Weber, Economy and Society. https://www.ucpress.edu/books/economy-and-society-2/paper

Seymour Martin Lipset, “Some Social Requisites of Democracy.” https://www.jstor.org/stable/1951731

Le Hong Hiep, “Performance-based Legitimacy: The Case of the Communist Party of Vietnam and Doi Moi.” https://www.jstor.org/stable/41756339

Martin Gainsborough, Vietnam: Rethinking the State. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-southeast-asian-studies/article/abs/vietnam-vietnam-rethinking-the-state-by-martin-gainsborough-london-zed-books-2010-224-pages-maps-notes-bibliography-index/ACC763EA92E613E5BAB5E3C21268969B 

Benedict Kerkvliet, The Power of Everyday Politics. https://muse.jhu.edu/book/59999

Fukuyama, Trust. https://www.persee.fr/doc/rfsp_0035-2950_1995_num_45_6_403599

Bo Rothstein, The Quality of Government. https://www.gu.se/sites/default/files/2020-05/2005_6%20Rothstein_Teorell.pdf

Benedict Anderson, Imagined Communities. https://criticallegalthinking.com/2023/04/25/benedict-andersons-imagined-communities/

Stephen B. Young, CRT writings on Moral Government, Moral Capitalism, and public trust. https://www.cauxroundtable.org/

Seven Bottlenecks Identified by General Secretary Tô Lâm Before the National Conference: The Illness Does Not Lie in the Bureaucracy

There are moments in history when internal strains and external pressures converge. At such moments, problems once dismissed as isolated deficiencies suddenly reveal themselves as the limits of an entire development model. Vietnam appears to be approaching precisely such an imperative to decide – this way or that? 

Hoang Thang DINH (Fellow of the Caux Round Table) 

At the National Conference convened by the Politburo of the Vietnamese Communist Party on July 1, 2026, General Secretary and State President Tô Lâm identified seven major bottlenecks which he believed were hindering the country’s development. They ranged from institutional weaknesses and bureaucratic inefficiency to human capital, science and technology, and the quality of governance. None of these deficiencies is new. Vietnamese scholars, economists, and even many officials within the system have discussed them for years. What is new—and politically significant—is that they have now been recognized at the highest level as systemic national challenges rather than isolated administrative shortcomings.

At almost the same time, another form of pressure was gathering from abroad. Over the past several months, the United States has initiated a series of investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, focusing on Vietnam’s industrial overcapacity, labor standards, and intellectual property protection. On the surface, these appear to be trade disputes. Yet viewed more carefully, they may convey a deeper strategic message. In an era of intensifying geopolitical competition, Washington is no longer evaluating Vietnam merely through the lens of geography or strategic location. Increasingly, it is judging the quality and sustainability of Vietnam’s own development model.

It is the intersection of these two currents – domestic and foreign –  bringing Vietnam into a new phase of history. On one side stand the domestic structural constraints that the leadership itself has now acknowledged. On the other stands an international environment undergoing rapid transformation, where the comparative advantages that has fueled Vietnam’s remarkable growth over the past three decades can no longer be taken for granted. These may appear to be two separate stories, yet they ultimately reflect the same underlying reality: Vietnam’s current development model has reached the limits of its effectiveness.

Put differently, the seven bottlenecks just identified by General Secretary Tô Lâm and the recent American trade investigations are not unrelated challenges. One is identified by an internal diagnosis; the other by an external assessment. Both lead to the same fundamental question: will Vietnam continue relying on the existing model of development, or will it undertake a deeper, more comprehensive, and more strategic reform?

For that reason, this essay is not intended as either praise or criticism of any individual leader. The more consequential fact is that the country’s highest-ranking official has publicly acknowledged the existence of these structural obstacles. Once such a diagnosis has been made, the essential question is no longer whether an illness exists, but what has caused it.

If the illness resides merely within the administrative apparatus, then organizational restructuring may well be a sufficient cure. But if the bureaucracy merely exhibits the most visible symptoms while the underlying causes are embedded in the country’s broader model of governance, then the reforms required must necessarily be far more ambitious. They must extend well beyond administrative streamlining or personnel reduction. They will require a comprehensive realignment of domestic governance and foreign policy, institutional reform and strategic repositioning, all within an international order that is itself undergoing profound change.

Modern Vietnamese history has repeatedly demonstrated that major diplomatic breakthroughs endure only when supported by meaningful transformation at home. The Đổi Mới reforms of 1986 offer perhaps the clearest example. The normalization of relations with the United States in 1995, Vietnam’s accession to ASEAN, and its participation in successive generations of global trade agreements likewise rested upon internal reforms that expanded the country’s capacity to engage the world. Today, as the international economic order enters another period of transition, Vietnam confronts a similar challenge—but at a considerably higher level of complexity. The central issue is no longer whether Vietnam should lean toward one great power or another. The real question is whether the country possesses sufficient capacity for self-renewal to preserve its own strategic autonomy in an increasingly competitive international environment.

A superficial understanding of the seven bottlenecks might suggest that they concern little more than administrative management: fragmented institutions, cumbersome organizations, unclear demarcations of decentralization, inadequate personnel, slow scientific and technological development, weak human resources, and ineffective policy implementation. Yet a closer examination reveals that virtually none of these problems belongs exclusively to the bureaucracy itself. Each represents the manifestation of a much deeper structural condition. The bureaucracy is merely where the symptoms become most visible; the underlying pathology lies in the operations manual for the entire system.

For many years, the standard response to major policy failures has followed a familiar pattern: amend several regulations, reorganize a handful of agencies, or launch another campaign to streamline the state apparatus. Such measures have certainly produced incremental improvements. Yet when the same categories of problems repeatedly reappear after successive rounds of reform, the difficulty can no longer be attributed to isolated institutional weaknesses. It lies in the design and operation of the entire governing system.

The most significant aspect of General Secretary Tô Lâm’s remarks, therefore, is not simply the enumeration of seven bottlenecks. More important is the implicit acknowledgment that these challenges have become systemic in nature. When a nation simultaneously struggles with institutional quality, human capital, governance effectiveness, innovation capacity, and economic competitiveness, it becomes increasingly implausible to attribute all these deficiencies solely to administrative shortcomings. Together they suggest that an entire development model—one that has shaped Vietnam’s trajectory for decades—is butting up against its structural limits.

If that diagnosis is correct, administrative reform alone will no longer suffice. A better-organized bureaucracy may still perform poorly if the rules governing its operation remain fundamentally unchanged. Conversely, a governance system built upon transparency, fair competition, and public accountability can generate significant improvements even without a perfectly designed administrative structure. The central issue, therefore, is not simply how government agencies are organized, but the principles by which they exercise authority and answer to society.

This distinction points to two concepts that are often conflated in Vietnamese policy debates: bureaucratic restructuring and governance reform. Bureaucratic restructuring addresses essentially technical questions. How should agencies be organized? How should authority be decentralized? Who should be responsible for what? These are undeniably important issues, but they remain questions of administrative engineering.

Governance reform, by contrast, asks far more fundamental questions. What should be the proper role of the state in a modern economy? Under what principles should markets operate? Is the rule of law genuinely supreme for all actors, or do political exceptions continue to prevail? Are relations between public authority and private enterprise governed by equal competition under law, or by administrative privilege and discretionary power?

One concept is merely regulatory; the other fundamentally constitutional.

Choosing one concept over the other ultimately determines a nation’s long-term capacity for development. It would therefore be a profound misunderstanding to regard the seven bottlenecks merely as a checklist of administrative deficiencies awaiting correction. Behind them lies a much larger challenge: how can Vietnam move beyond a growth model driven primarily by inexpensive labor, capital accumulation, and export expansion toward a new one based on productivity, innovation, institutional quality, and genuine competitiveness? This is no longer simply an issue for the Ministry of Home Affairs or the state bureaucracy. It is a challenge which must be met correctly by the country’s entire development paradigm.

Ironically, just as the need for such reforms has become increasingly urgent, the international environment has entered one of its most turbulent periods in decades. Recent changes in American trade policy did not create Vietnam’s structural bottlenecks. They have, however, dramatically increased the cost of postponing reform. Weaknesses that once manifested themselves largely within the domestic economy are now beginning to shape Vietnam’s external relationships and strategic room for maneuver.

Every great reform movement in history begins with what appears to be a deceptively simple question: what must change first?

Vietnam answered that question in 1986 by liberating productive forces, recognizing a multi-sector economy, and opening itself to the world. Those decisions inaugurated one of the most remarkable development cycles in modern Vietnamese history. Tens of millions escaped poverty. The country emerged from decades of isolation and became an integral participant in the global economy.

History, however, never stands still. A development model that once served as a powerful engine of national progress may, over time, become the principal constraint upon further advancement.

For that reason, the reforms Vietnam now requires cannot be confined to reorganizing government agencies. They must involve a fundamental transformation of the development model itself. The state can no longer simultaneously serve as referee, competitor, allocator of economic resources, and ultimate gatekeeper determining who gains access to opportunity. A modern state must gradually shift from exercising control to creating enabling conditions—from distributing privileges to guaranteeing a fair legal framework; from governing primarily through administrative directives to governing through the rule of law, public accountability, and effective public service.

Only when the state’s role is properly redefined can the private sector fully develop, society unleash its creative potential, and the economy finally escape the long shadow of the traditional “ask-and-give” administrative culture.

In the twenty-first century, a nation’s most valuable resource is no longer land, inexpensive labor, or even foreign investment. Its greatest strategic asset is trust which generates action and optimism.

Investors commit capital because they trust the predictability and transparency of legal institutions. Entrepreneurs innovate because they believe their achievements will be protected. Citizens contribute because they trust that their efforts will not be undermined by arbitrary authority or entrenched privilege. International partners deepen cooperation because they believe commitments will be honored consistently over time.

No government can manufacture trust through slogans or political resolutions. Trust is accumulated only through the quality of institutions when that quality depends on how people behave towards one another.

For precisely that reason, meaningful reform must begin with the rule of law. Law must become the common framework governing every actor, rather than an instrument applied differently according to political influence or administrative discretion. When laws are transparent, power naturally becomes constrained. When power is constrained, social creativity gains room to flourish. And when creativity is protected, national competitiveness acquires a durable foundation.

It is impossible to build an innovative economy upon an unpredictable legal environment. Nor can entrepreneurs be expected to mature into globally competitive firms if property rights, commercial autonomy, and contractual security remain vulnerable to arbitrary reinterpretation.

Yet the establishment of genuine rule of law, indispensable though it is, will not by itself be sufficient unless accompanied by an equally profound transformation in Vietnam’s philosophy of development.

For many years, Vietnam’s achievements have been measured primarily through GDP growth, export performance, foreign direct investment, and the scale of infrastructure projects. These cash-flow indicators remain important, but they are no longer sufficient in an age increasingly defined by technology, data, knowledge, and high-value production.

The decisive question is no longer how many goods Vietnam exports. The more important question is how much Vietnamese knowledge, Vietnamese technology, Vietnamese brands, and genuine Vietnamese innovation are embodied within those exports.

Escaping the limitations of an assembly-based economy therefore requires placing education, science and technology, and an independent private sector at the very center of national strategy. No country becomes truly developed if its educational system values conformity more than independent thinking; if scientific research remains stronger in official rhetoric than in practical achievement; or if private entrepreneurs continue to be viewed as simultaneously indispensable and politically suspect.

An innovative economy requires citizens educated to think critically, universities and research institutions protected by academic freedom, businesses competing on equal terms under the law, and a society willing to reward experimentation rather than merely punish failure.

If that diagnosis is correct, administrative reform alone will no longer suffice. A better-organized bureaucracy may still perform poorly if the stipulated (but more importantly the tacit) rules governing its operation remain fundamentally unchanged. Conversely, a governance system built upon transparency, fair competition, and public accountability can generate significant improvements even without a perfectly designed administrative structure. The central issue, therefore, is not simply how government agencies are organized, but what will be the principles by which they exercise authority and answer to society.

The Name That Refused to Disappear: “Saigon” Collective Memory, and the Moral Limits of Political Power

Hoang Thang DINH (PhD, Pollical Science, Fellow, Caux Round Table for Moral Capitalism)

Political power can rename a city. It cannot rename the collective memory of a people.

Governments may redraw maps, revise administrative boundaries, issue decrees, and proclaim new official identities. Yet history repeatedly reminds us that collective memory obeys a different power paradigm. It is not created by administrative power, nor can it be abolished by administrative power. It is shaped by lived experience, by family stories, by the emotional geography of childhood, by the streets, schools, hospitals, cafés, seasons, departures, and returns through all of which a people slowly comes to recognize itself.

Half a century has passed since the National Assembly of Vietnam officially renamed Saigon as Ho Chi Minh City. From the standpoint of state administration, that decision took effect immediately. From the standpoint of historical consciousness, however, the change of name has unfolded in a far more complex and revealing way.

1. A City May Be Renamed, but Memory of what was Cannot Be Disciplined

There are events that alter the destiny of a nation. There are decisions that change borders, institutions, and even the official name of a city. But there are also realities that neither time nor the power to command can easily erase. Among these realities, collective memory may be the most invisible, yet also the most durable, inheritance of a people.

Fifty years ago, the renaming of Saigon opened a new chapter in Vietnam’s political history. It marked the end of one historical order and the beginning of another. Administratively, the change was clear and immediate. Maps were revised. Documents were updated. The official vocabulary of the state was transformed. Yet the history of administration and the history of a people’s inner moral life do not always move at the same pace or in the same direction.

Today, several generations of Vietnamese have been born and raised without ever seeing the name “Saigon” on their birth certificates or household registrations. And yet the name remains alive in the most natural rhythms of Vietnamese speech. People in the North still say they are “going to Saigon.” People in Central Vietnam still say they are “heading into Saigon.” People in the South still speak of “going up to Saigon.” Across the Vietnamese diaspora — from Paris, Berlin, and Budapest to California and Sydney — millions of Vietnamese continue to speak of Saigon not merely as a place, but as a memory, a longing, and a fragment of their own lives.

After half a century, this persistence of a name can no longer be explained away simply as a a linguistic habit. Nor can it be sublimated under a political attitude. Something deeper is at work. The continued life given to the name “Saigon” reveals the extraordinary resilience of collective memory. It shows that what endures in history is not always what power has officially declared, but what generations of human beings have carried within themselves.

Memory operates according to laws different from those of power. Memory is rooted in childhood, family, neighborhoods, schools, hospitals, streets lined with tamarind trees, old cafés, sudden tropical rains, farewells, reunions, and all the ordinary moments that quietly become part of the soul of a city.

It is precisely those ordinary things that crystallize into personal identity. A city is not only an administrative unit. It is a lived world. It becomes real through the emotional and moral attachments of the people who inhabit it, leave it, remember it, and pass its name on to the next generation. That is why Saigon has survived not merely as a former name, but as a cultural symbol, a style of life, and a spiritual presence through which many Vietnamese, wherever they may live, still recognize something of themselves.

In this sense, Saigon today is no longer only a geographical designation. It has become a moral and cultural reference point. It evokes not simply nostalgia for a vanished city, but poses for all who hear it named a broader question about the continuity of Vietnamese history. What survives after political rupture? What remains after war, victory, defeat, and administrative transformation? Which memories become the property of the nation?

Perhaps the most interesting development after fifty years is that the present itself has begun, cautiously but unmistakably, to return to that memory. When Vietnam’s current leadership recalls Saigon as the former “Pearl of the Far East,” or refers to the time when Singaporeans once came to Cho Ray Hospital for medical treatment, the significance lies not only in those specific remarks. More important is the fact that the memory of Saigon is gradually re-entering official discourse.  Memory is overcoming power.

That return is revealing. It suggests that the deeper sediments of collective Vietnamese consciousness never truly disappeared. They merely sank beneath the surface of political history. At certain moments, when a nation begins to search for standards by which to imagine its future, those submerged layers of memory rise again. They become not a burden from the past, but a source of reference for the future.

The same tendency can be seen in education. In recent years, the idea of “liberal education” has been invoked more frequently in Vietnam. Yet any serious attempt to trace the Vietnamese roots of that spirit cannot ignore the educational legacy of Saigon before 1975. This does not require idealizing the past or denying the limitations of that historical period. It simply requires intellectual honesty. Knowledge has no national  or party flag. A good school, a capable hospital, and an open cultural environment do not lose their value merely because they emerged under a different political system. If they were achievements of Vietnamese people, then they belong to the unmanipulated inheritance of the Vietnamese nation.

It is at this point that the story of Saigon rises above the question of a city’s name. It asks a much larger question: when does a nation possess enough confidence to regard the whole of its history as a common inheritance?

After war, history is often told in the different languages of the winners and the losers. But after half a century, what remains most important for the Vietnamese is no longer that 1975 line of division. What demands attention is the question of which values still possess enough vitality to accompany the nation into its future. If Vietnamese people still speak of Saigon today with recognition, tenderness, or respect, then what they are recalling is not only a city of the past. They are also pointing toward a possible source of inspiration for the future.

Saigon, therefore, is not merely a name that refused to disappear. It is a reminder that a nation cannot mature by amputating parts of its own memory. A mature civilization does not fear the complexity of its past. It learns to distinguish between political rupture and historical continuity. It knows that the deepest foundations of national identity are not built by forgetting, but by transforming memory into a common inheritance.

2. Healing Begins by Respecting One Another’s Memory

If, after half a century, the name Saigon continues to live naturally in the language of millions of Vietnamese, then the essential question is no longer what the city ought to be called. The more important question is why this memory has proved so enduring. The answer, perhaps, lies not in the name itself, but in Vietnam’s unfinished journey toward reconciling differences in its own history, antagonisms and contradictions within Vietnamese-ness itself.

For many years, Vietnamese society has spoken of national reconciliation as both an aspiration and a necessity. No nation can move confidently into the future while remaining divided by unresolved memories of the past. 

Yet reconciliation cannot be achieved simply through commemorative ceremonies, political declarations, or official slogans. Those may express goodwill, but they cannot by themselves restore the moral trust that history has fractured. Genuine reconciliation is not merely a political process; it is, before all else, a cultural and ethical achievement. It begins when citizens become willing to acknowledge the legitimacy of one another’s memories, even when those memories are not identical to their own.

Throughout the years following the war, Vietnamese people have often been encouraged to “leave the past behind” in order to focus on the future. There is undeniable wisdom in looking ahead. But looking ahead does not require erasing what came before. 

The past is not a door that can simply be closed at will. It survives within the memories of individuals, families, and communities, and memory has never yielded easily to administrative decree or ideological instruction. No government possesses the authority to legislate remembrance. Political institutions may shape official history, but they cannot fully determine the history that people carry within themselves.

For that reason, no nation can truly heal by amputating part of its own memory. Nor can reconciliation flourish if one group of citizens is expected to forget before it is permitted to belong, while another is encouraged to remember only within officially prescribed boundaries. Healing does not require uniform memories. It requires the moral generosity to recognize that different memories may all belong to the same national experience. Diversity of remembrance is not a threat to unity. Properly understood, it is one of the conditions through which authentic unity becomes possible at a higher level of generalization as to who we really are.

The passage of time offers every society an opportunity to revisit its history with greater calmness and greater intellectual honesty. The Saigon that existed before 1975 possessed both remarkable achievements and undeniable limitations. The Ho Chi Minh City of today likewise represents extraordinary vitality, creativity, and economic dynamism, while at the same time confronting new questions concerning urban development, social cohesion, and the quality of public life. Neither historical period should be romanticized. Neither should be dismissed. Both deserve to be understood as successive chapters in the continuing history of Vietnam.

Only when these different chapters are viewed as parts of one continuous national experience can history become a teacher rather than a battlefield. The purpose of remembering is not to assign permanent moral superiority to one period over another. It is to understand how a nation has evolved, what it has learned, where it has failed, and which achievements remain worthy of preservation regardless of the political circumstances under which they first emerged.

Some Vietnamese scholars have compared the nation to travelers who have not yet fully crossed the symbolic “River of Stars” toward reconciliation. The metaphor is illuminating. Wars may end with military victories or diplomatic agreements, but the currents of memory often continue to flow on for generations before they finally mingle. Territorial peace does not automatically become peace within the human spirit. A nation may rebuild its roads, bridges, and cities within a few decades. Rebuilding mutual trust among memories often requires much longer.

Seen from this perspective, Saigon is no longer merely a story about South Vietnam, nor simply a reminder of an earlier political order. It has become a measure of Vietnam’s own cultural confidence. A mature nation does not fear memory, nor does it require memory to submit to political authority. It understands that the more turbulent its history has been, the more necessary it becomes to preserve every layer of that experience with honesty and compassion. National identity grows stronger not because difficult memories disappear, but because they are gradually woven into a broader and more generous understanding of the nation’s common journey.

Perhaps the time has come to look at Saigon through a different lens—not as a symbol of division, but as an inseparable chapter in the making of modern Vietnam. A people who preserve every layer of their historical memory are ultimately richer than a people who preserve only those memories that conform comfortably to the present. The spiritual resources that enable a civilization to renew itself are rarely created overnight. They are accumulated slowly across generations, deposited quietly within the collective consciousness of a nation, and rediscovered whenever history demands new sources of wisdom.

Ultimately, healing does not mean forgetting. Nor does reconciliation require unanimous interpretations of the past. It asks something both simpler and more demanding: that a nation possess enough moral confidence to accept the whole of its own history as a shared inheritance. Only then can memory cease to divide and begin, at last, to unite.

3. Still Saigon—Still Vietnam

Half a century has now passed. The city bears a different official name, a different skyline, and a different place in Vietnam’s national development. New boulevards have replaced old avenues. New urban districts continue to expand beyond what earlier generations could have imagined. Ho Chi Minh City has become one of Southeast Asia’s most dynamic metropolitan centers and the principal economic engine of the country. History has never stood still, nor should anyone wish to reverse its course. Every generation must build upon the foundations it inherits while creating new possibilities for those who follow.

As nations move forward, what should they carry with them from the past? Economic growth, technological innovation, and institutional reform are indispensable. But civilizations are sustained not only by what they build. They are equally sustained by what they choose to remember. Material progress gives a nation greater capacity. Historical memory gives that capacity meaning.

Perhaps the most revealing question after fifty years is no longer whether the city should officially be called Saigon or Ho Chi Minh City. The more revealing question is why the name Saigon continues to resonate so naturally across generations of Vietnamese, including many who never personally experienced the city that once bore that name. The answer lies neither in geography nor in ideology. It lies in a far more enduring characteristic of human societies. People readily adapt to changing institutions, but they seldom abandon the memories that have become woven into their moral and emotional identity.

That attachment should not be mistaken for nostalgia, nor should it be interpreted as resistance to historical change. Rather, it reflects one of the essential conditions of civilizational continuity. A mature society does not preserve its identity by freezing history. It preserves its identity by allowing each generation to reinterpret inherited memories without destroying them. Historical continuity is not the absence of change; it is the capacity to carry the past into the future without becoming imprisoned by either.

For that reason, no civilization becomes stronger by erasing the achievements or experiences of earlier historical periods. It grows stronger by integrating them into an increasingly comprehensive understanding of itself. Pre-1975 Saigon possessed accomplishments worthy of recognition, alongside limitations that deserve honest assessment. Contemporary Ho Chi Minh City likewise reflects remarkable achievements while confronting challenges that will define Vietnam’s future. Wisdom lies neither in idealizing one period nor condemning another. Wisdom lies in recognizing that both belong to the same unfolding story of the Vietnamese nation.

Vietnam today often speaks of entering a new era of national development. Such an aspiration is both legitimate and necessary. Yet no genuinely new era can be built upon fragmented memories. A nation advances most confidently when it possesses the moral courage to regard the whole of its history as a shared inheritance—to celebrate genuine achievements, to acknowledge painful failures, and to learn from both with equal honesty. This is precisely what may be described as the sedimentation of collective consciousness: those quiet layers of memory deposited over generations within language, culture, social habits, and the moral imagination of a people. They cannot be manufactured by political authority, yet they quietly sustain the continuity of civilization itself.

Seen from this perspective, Saigon is no longer simply the name of a city. It has become evidence of a larger historical truth. Political power may administer the present. Historians may continue to debate the past. Governments may reinterpret national narratives according to changing circumstances. Yet the collective memory of a people ultimately belongs neither to governments nor to historians. It belongs to the civilization itself. No political authority, however powerful, can permanently govern the inner memory of millions of human beings.

Nations reach true maturity not when they cease discussing their past, but when they no longer fear it. They become stronger when they recognize that historical memory exists not to serve the political needs of the present, but to deepen the moral resources with which the future will be built.

Fifty years from now, this city will undoubtedly look different once again. Its skyline will continue to rise, its economy will continue to evolve, and future generations will inherit a Vietnam very different from the one we know today. Yet if those future generations still speak the name Saigon with quiet familiarity and unforced affection, that will not represent the failure of some part of history. It will represent one of a civilization’s deepest victories: the triumph of collective memory over the transience of political power.

Perhaps that is the shortest path by which Vietnam, after enduring so many crashing waves and violent storms in its modern history, may finally guide its national vessel toward the farther shore—not through enforced forgetting, but through using  the quiet wisdom of remembering together.

Enhancing the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between Vietnam and India: Reading Between the Lines

Hoang Thang Dinh (PhD, CRT Fellow)

There is a famous line by Vietnamese poet Xuân Diệu: “How can one live without loving, without longing, without cherishing someone?” Yet in international politics – especially in Asia today – states often find it convenient to “love without saying it,” to “grow closer without letting others know,” to “align without making it official.” That is why General Secretary and President Tô Lâm’s state visit to India, and the decision by Hanoi and New Delhi to elevate their bilateral relationship to an “Enhanced Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” (ECSP), has a significance far beyond ordinary diplomacy. In many ways, it was an effort to “make clear who we truly are to each other” after years in which both sides recognized each other’s strategic value but publicly maintained enough distance to avoid unnecessary geopolitical discomfort.

A close reading of Tô Lâm’s remarks at the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statements at the joint press conference, and the wording of the Joint Statement itself, reveals that this note of “enhancing” is not merely a cosmetic upgrade in diplomatic terminology. (1,2,3) Rather, it reflects an important transformation in how Vietnam and India perceive each other within Asia’s evolving balance of power – an Asia in which China has become increasingly assertive, the United States increasingly present, and middle powers such as India, Japan, and Vietnam increasingly compelled to construct flexible forms of strategic alignment in order to preserve their own autonomous maneuverability. 

The first critical question is what exactly distinguishes an “Enhanced CSP” from the previous “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.” On the surface, some might dismiss it as little more than an exercise in diplomatic semantics, given that Vietnam and India already established a CSP back in 2016. But in modern diplomacy – particularly among Asian states that tend to use strategic language sparingly – the addition of the word “Enhanced” is never accidental. If the 2016 CSP focused primarily on political trust, high-level exchanges, foundational defense cooperation, trade, and people-to-people ties, the ECSP of 2026 signals movement toward much more substantive strategic integration: coordination within the regional order itself about the nature of that order.

In other words, the earlier CSP resembled a strategic friendship, while the ECSP increasingly resembles a strategic alignment of interests and capabilities. This becomes especially clear in the phrases repeatedly emphasized by Indian officials: “strategic convergence,” “shared vision,” and “economic security.” These words are no longer the vocabulary of symbolic diplomacy; they are the vocabulary of geopolitics. When New Delhi stresses strategic supply chains, critical minerals, economic security, advanced technology, and maritime security, it effectively signals that Vietnam now occupies a new place within India’s Indo-Pacific strategy. From the Indian perspective, Hanoi is no longer merely a traditional friend in Southeast Asia – it is becoming a crucial player in an intentional response to China’s restructuring of regional strategic space.

Indeed, Indian newspapers such as The Economic Times and The Times of India have treated To Lam’s visit not as an ordinary bilateral event, but presented it using the the prism of Indo-Pacific, strategic competition, and the reshaping of Asia’s balance of power. Within that framework, Vietnam emerges as perhaps India’s most trusted strategic partner in ASEAN. It is hardly accidental that New Delhi has steadily deepened defense ties with Hanoi over the years, from submarine training and defense credit lines to discussions surrounding the BrahMos missile system.

This context explains why Vietnamese media placed unusual emphasis on Tô Lâm’s meeting with Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, even before highlighting several other diplomatic engagements. (4) In today’s Indian power structure, Doval is not merely a security adviser; he is one of the principal architects of the Modi era’s strategic doctrine, deeply involved in shaping India’s Act East policy and broader Indo-Pacific approach. By foregrounding this meeting, Hanoi effectively signaled that security has become the core pillar of the ECSP.

There is an unwritten rule in Asian diplomacy: the most sensitive matters are rarely settled during semi-public official talks but are instead handled more discreetly through national security channels. Issues involving intelligence-sharing, defense technology, maritime coordination, or balancing China are seldom discussed publicly in full detail. Thus, Tô Lâm’s meeting with Ajit Doval carried far greater significance than a ceremonial diplomatic encounter. It suggested that Hanoi and New Delhi are quietly building layers of cooperation far deeper than what appears in public communiqués.

Yet an intriguing paradox remains: despite the ECSP and extensive international reporting about Vietnam potentially acquiring BrahMos missiles (5), Vietnamese media have almost entirely avoided references to the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP), “balancing China,” or even “hot weapons purchases.” This silence is not accidental. (6) It reflects Hanoi’s characteristic practice of strategic balancing.

Vietnam currently faces an extraordinarily delicate challenge: how to strengthen deterrence capabilities without becoming confined and stereotyped inside a new Cold War-style alliance system. If Hanoi openly emphasized BrahMos, the Indo-Pacific, or maritime security cooperation aimed at countering pressure in the South China Sea, Beijing could easily interpret such moves as participation in a broader containment structure against China. Yet while Vietnam seeks to diversify strategic partnerships, it also remains determined not to destabilize its overall relationship with Beijing. (7)

Consequently, Hanoi has adopted a remarkably nuanced discourse: security cooperation is real, but the language presenting its reality is deliberately “de-militarized.” Vietnam speaks more often about “non-traditional security,” “regional stability,” “technological cooperation,” and “international law” than about alliances, deterrence, or counter-balancing. Put differently, Vietnam seeks to “enjoy the substance without donning the uniform.” This is “bamboo diplomacy” at the geopolitical level.

This approach also shapes how Vietnam interprets FOIP. For Washington, FOIP carries an unmistakably strategic meaning centered on freedom of navigation and counter-balancing China’s becoming a naval power. Japan sees FOIP as a framework for preserving a rules-based order. (8) India, meanwhile, presents FOIP in softer terms – as inclusive and multipolar, avoiding the appearance of an Asian NATO. (9) Vietnam’s public messaging about the enterprise is even more nuanced.

At the most superficial level, Vietnam views FOIP primarily as an economic opportunity: diversification of supply chains, attraction of high-tech investment, semiconductors, rare earths, and logistics development. (10) This is the least politically sensitive dimension for Hanoi because it aligns directly with national development priorities. At a more balancing-of- power level, Vietnam sees FOIP as a legal and normative space for defending UNCLOS, freedom of navigation, and peaceful dispute resolution. This is, in essence, ASEAN’s version of FOIP.  (11) But at the third level –  unsentimental balancing of hard power – Vietnam remains extremely cautious. Hanoi understands perfectly well that it benefits from the presence of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia in maintaining regional equilibrium, yet it also understands that moving too close to any single source of power projection could threaten its own strategic autonomy. (12)

It is precisely here that the triangular relationship among Vietnam, India, and China becomes particularly significant. Over recent years, competition between New Delhi and Beijing has intensified dramatically, stretching from the Himalayas to the Indian Ocean. Vietnam has consequently emerged as a key partner in India’s eastward strategic outreach. Yet Hanoi also understands that it cannot become the “frontline state” of any anti-China coalition. Vietnam needs India to widen its strategic space, but simultaneously it needs a stable relationship with China in order to sustain national development.

For this reason, Vietnam – India relations are likely to continue evolving in a manner that is “substantial but soft.” In practical terms, meaningful cooperation in security, technology, and economics will steadily expand, while public rhetoric will remain carefully calibrated. The sharper the U.S.–China rivalry becomes, the more skillfully Hanoi will need to manage its strategic image. (13)

Within this broader context, Vietnam’s potentially joining BRICS also becomes increasingly interesting. (14) n theory, Vietnam possesses many characteristics associated with BRICS+: strong relations with Russia, China, and India; growing importance within ASEAN; an open export-oriented economy; and a highly strategic geopolitical location. Yet Hanoi remains cautious. The reasons are not merely economic but geopolitical. Since its expansion, BRICS has increasingly acquired the image of a bloc seeking to reduce Western influence and challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar. Vietnam, however, still depends heavily on the United States, the European Union, Japan, and South Korea for trade, investment, and technology. Joining BRICS prematurely could generate geopolitical interpretations that would complicate Hanoi’s balancing of its strategic needs against offsetting risks.

Thus, Vietnam is likely to continue prioritizing “multi-alignment” over bloc politics. Hanoi seeks connectivity with all centers of power without becoming glued to any single one. This, in many ways, distinguishes Vietnam’s diplomacy from that of many other middle powers.

More broadly, the international and Indian media reactions to To Lam’s visit also reveal Vietnam’s changing position within the regional order. What captured attention was not ceremonial protocol, but geopolitics: the ECSP, BrahMos, strategic supply chains, rare earths, the Indo-Pacific, and Tô Lâm’s evolving political role. Vietnam is no longer viewed merely as a developing Southeast Asian country; increasingly, it is perceived as a “swing state” – a country capable of influencing the broader strategic balance of Asia. (15)

And perhaps that is the deepest meaning of the ECSP. The enhancement is not about choosing sides, but about expanding strategic space for both Hanoi and New Delhi in an Asia growing ever more polarized. India needs Vietnam to deepen its presence in Southeast Asia and the South China Sea; Vietnam needs India to diversify strategic partnerships and avoid being trapped within the binary, zero-sum, logic of U.S.–China competition. Meanwhile, China – though rarely mentioned explicitly – remains the silent shadow present throughout the entire public staging of this visit.

Ultimately, the “Enhanced CSP” is not merely a story about two countries. It is a reflection of a new Asia in which middle powers are becoming increasingly proactive in shaping their own strategic destinies. And in such a world, the most important task is not to stand entirely on one side or another, but to become strong enough to “impress on others who we truly are to one another” with every major power – while still preserving enough distance in order not to lose one’s autonomy in any single bilateral relationship. (16)

References:

THAM KHẢO:

 

(1) https://baochinhphu.vn/phat-bieu-chinh-sach-cua-tong-bi-thu-chu-tich-nuoc-to-lam-tai-hoi-dong-cac-van-de-the-gioi-cua-an-do-10226050621193717.htm

(2) https://www.mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl/41106/English+Translation+of+Prime+Ministers+Press+Statement+during+the+Joint+Press+Statement+with+the+General+Secretary+of+the+Communist+Party+of+Vietnam+and+the+President+of+Vietnam+May+06+2026

(3) https://tuoitre.vn/tuyen-bo-chung-viet-nam-an-do-ve-quan-he-doi-tac-chien-luoc-toan-dien-tang-cuong-2026050701250451.htm

(4) https://baochinhphu.vn/tong-bi-thu-chu-tich-nuoc-to-lam-tiep-co-van-an-ninh-quoc-gia-an-do-102260506002141007.htm

(5) https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/defence/countering-china-india-offers-vietnam-brahmos-missile-during-president-to-lams-visit/articleshow/130922764.cms?utm_source=chatgpt.com

(6) https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-may-discuss-brahmos-missile-sale-to-vietnam-during-presidential-visit-sources-say/articleshow/130822763.cms?utm_source=chatgpt.com

(7) https://magazine.thediplomat.com/2023-01/how-vietnam-can-balance-against-china-on-land-and-at-sea?utm_source=chatgpt.com

(8) https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/05/02/japan/politics/japan-vietnam-foip-takaichi/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

(9) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indian-foreign-minister-says-does-not-share-ishiba-vision-asian-nato-2024-10-01/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

(10) https://fulcrum.sg/vietnams-hedging-strategy-in-the-indo-pacific/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

(11)https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10357718.2020.1869132?utm_source=chatgpt.com

(12) https://www.belfercenter.org/research-analysis/balancing-without-allying-vietnams-middle-power-strategy-amids-us-china-rivalry?utm_source=chatgpt.com

(13) https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/vietnam-s-bamboo-diplomacy?utm_source=chatgpt.com

(14) https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3293207/vietnams-strategic-hesitation-brics-highlights-delicate-us-ties-and-economic-

(15) https://thediplomat.com/2024/03/vietnam-a-swing-state-in-the-us-china-rivalry/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

(16) https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/middle-powers-and-indo-pacific-order?utm_source=chatgpt.com