In January, I sent you four commentaries on Donald Trump as a leader (here, here, here and here).
On June 16, I read Walter Russell Mead’s commentary in the Wall Street Journal which added a different way of understanding Donald Trump, but one consistent with my observations of his modus operandi as a person, a politician, a dealmaker and a leader, of sorts.
Here is part of what Mr. Mead wrote:
Mr. Trump’s greatest strength is also his greatest weakness. The president is a cynic. Unencumbered by deep convictions and free from the constraints imposed by conventional morality or codes of honor, he can alter his tactics to the exigencies of the moment without hesitation or scruple. Cynicism has its uses. No statesman can succeed without a healthy dose of it. But like most potent drugs, it works best in small doses.
Mr. Trump comes by his cynicism honestly – his career in New York real estate, casinos and reality television led naturally to a dark view of human nature. As his political power grew and so many early critics and opponents swallowed their principles to kiss his ring, Mr. Trump’s intuitive belief that ideas and ideals don’t matter was powerfully reinforced.
But cynicism has limits. A cynic would have predicted that Britain would throw in the towel in 1940. Adolf Hitler held more cards than Winston Churchill did. But Churchill rejected Hitler’s peace offers and fought on to the end.
Mr. Trump’s disregard for ideas, ideals and people who claim to believe in them leads him to underestimate the strength and determination of people who mean what they say. His failure to understand the power of nationalism blinded him both to the resilience Ukraine has demonstrated in its conflict with Russia and to Vladimir Putin’s determination to pursue the struggle regardless of cost. Mr. Trump’s peacemaking efforts as a result have fallen flat.
Ideas matter in the Middle East as well. However perverse and depraved the ideas that animate the Islamic Republic and Hezbollah, they inspire the kind of conviction that motivates people to fight grimly on against the odds. In the end, Mr. Trump underestimated Iran’s determination and resilience and launched a war that is proving much costlier and harder to end than he’d expected.
Mr. Trump’s apparent contempt for ideals like democracy and the rule of law also costs him. Threats to conquer Greenland reduced his ability to call on allies in the Iran crisis. And the American failure to work more closely and effectively with pro-democracy Iranians gives the regime one less problem to worry about. Additionally, Mr. Trump’s penchant for aggressively unpredictable course changes weakens the confidence of allies and bolsters cohesion among his opponents.
Mr. Trump is a supreme and often supremely successful opportunist. But that quality alone won’t see him through the tests that lie ahead.