Author: CRT Admin

By Prof. Nguyễn Đình Công

Introduction

Stephen B. Young,

Global Executive Director

Writing under the pen-name of Prof. Nguyen Dinh Cong, our commentator collapses history and current events into one lived experience.  He  draws from Vietnam’s cultural past, its core values which can be carried forward into our present – in our minds and hearts, to animate thinking today, right now – just as if Vietnamese from the 15^th or 18^th centuries were to appear among us and speak to us, unmoved by modernity and firmly committed to a Vietnamese moral and intellectual heritage.

The decision-making frame that arises for Vietnamese when their moral heritage is recalled is how to choose – modernity and the West or tradition and Vietnameseness?  Or, what Prof. Cong suggests a blend of the two. Not a rejection of heritage but an appreciation as appropriate. Not a rejection of the West to live in the past, but an appreciation and an appropriation which is fit and becoming for “modern” Vietnamese.

Finding such a point of balance – an alloy with proper temper and resilience and a high melting point – has been a challenge for all non-Western cultures after the era of Western expansion and exportation of its rationality, its science, its economic dynamism, its technologies. For some like an angry and resentful Frantz Fanon, the choice has been zero-sum – one or the other; no compromise; no blend. One is either of the “West”, the colonialists, or one is “native” enclosed by tradition and so subject to their disdain and condescension.

Here Prof. Cong draws on psycho-socially powerful insights from his people’s past into the meaning and purpose of life and nature so that he can with authority and determination advocate for a new order in the Vietnam of 2025.

(The Vietnamese text can be read here:  https://phongtraoduytan.com/chinh-tri/chinh-tri-viet-nam/3087/ )

Prof. Cong writes:

In the old days, emperors held sacred “manuals” for the Rites of Sacrifice to Heaven at the Nam Giao Altar — solemn ceremonies to repent before Heaven and Earth. Now, in the midst of catastrophic natural disasters, the communist regime distributes a “pocket manual” for the September 2nd military parade (!?) [6][7]

A Nation Weeping Amid Storms

As August fades into September, the land writhes under violent tempests.

Rain falls like torrents; floods spread without end. Roofs of red tile are torn away, fields vanish under oceans of water. The cries of fathers losing sons, mothers losing husbands, the wailing of peasants stripped of all they owned — all these laments blend with the mournful roar of storm and rain [1].

And yet — amidst this tragic scene, where “life pours tears, and heaven pours rain” — proclamations blare from the capital: parades, processions, fireworks to celebrate the 80th National Day.

One side: blinding fireworks above Ba Đình Square. The other: a flickering oil lamp in a peasant’s flooded shack. That contrast is not merely material. It is a fracture in the sacred triad of Heaven – Earth – Humanity.

Heaven – Earth – Humanity in Ruin: A Nation in Peril

Eastern philosophy has long taught that Heaven, Earth, and Humanity form the three pillars that uphold both the universe and the fate of nations [2].

• Heaven — the will of nature, of fate.

• Earth — the land, the resources, the homeland itself.

• Humanity — the people’s hearts, and the virtue of those who rule.

When the three stand in harmony, peace endures. When one falters, dynasties fall.

These storms are no mere weather. They are warnings. Two years in a row, since Tô Lâm “ascended the throne,” Vietnam has been struck by devastating storms: in 2024 the super-typhoon Yagi, now in 2025 the great storm number 5 [1]. Natural disaster upon natural disaster — is this not Heaven’s rebuke against how men govern the land?

Heaven rages. Earth lies broken. The people seethe with anger. The triad is fractured. It is an omen.

While the People Weep,  the Ba Đình Elite Banquets

Storm number 5 has ravaged the provinces: hundreds of homes unroofed, thousands of hectares of crops destroyed, countless lives lost. In Hanoi, streets drowned in 40cm of water; in Nghệ An and Hà Tĩnh, villages are completely isolated [1].

Yet in the capital, the regime trumpets its parade plans: 30,000 participants, foreign armies invited, high-altitude fireworks in multiple sites, LED screens across the city [3]. The costs — billions upon billions of đồng, drawn from the sweat of farmers, from the meager wages of workers.

What if those billions rebuilt homes, schools, and barns for the poor? What if they bought new buffaloes and cows — a farmer’s only wealth — instead of fleeting fireworks?

Fireworks blaze for minutes, then die. But the tears of the poor last a lifetime. This extravagance is not celebration. It is a wound — a moral wound in the soul of the nation.

Tradition Once Understood: Disasters Are Warnings, Not Occasions for Showing off

In the past, rulers saw disasters as Heaven’s rebuke. They would issue edicts of self-blame, reduce taxes, curb luxury, focus on relief.

The Nguyễn dynasty built the Nam Giao Altar to pray for Heaven’s favor [4]. The Tây Sơn did likewise in Bình Định [5]. These rites were not superstition — they were acts of humility, reminders that rulers must serve Heaven and care for the people.

But now those rites are gone. The communist regime scoffs at them as “superstition,” replacing them with hollow parades [6][7]. By denying the spiritual, they sever the bridge between ruler, people, and Heaven. In its place, only cold fireworks flare — light without warmth, spectacle without soul.

The Treachery of Courtiers: A Greater Peril Than Storms

A storm can drown a village, but treacherous ministers can destroy an entire nation.

If Tô Lâm seeks to be remembered, let him beware. Flatterers will paint illusions, urging parades and fireworks, dressing his power in false glory. But history teaches: dynasties do not collapse from storms alone, but from rulers who hearken to sycophants and abandon Heaven and the people.

If Heaven – Earth – Humanity already teeters towards regime collapse, then letting traitors reign is to dig the grave of the nation.

A Chance to Re-Found the Nation?

Hồ Chí Minh founded the Democratic Republic in 1945, but with his death in 1969, his era ended. Lê Duẩn and his heirs built the Socialist Republic — a model that has clearly failed.

Now, Communist Party General Secretary Tô Lâm stands at a crossroads. He could, if he has true courage, ignite a second founding of the nation. Not to split the land into “socialist” and “capitalist” Vietnams — but to change the very principle of rule: to abandon repression and indifference, and instead establish a governance that reveres Heaven, honors the People, fears treachery, and truly serves the nation.

The upcoming 14^th Party Congress — this is the golden moment. Persist in the old ways, and storms, the people, and history will sweep everything away. But dare to change, and a new destiny may be born.

The Hour of Choice

Disasters will come and go, but how rulers respond reveals their moral worth. A just government halts pageantry to save its people. A wise government honors Heaven with humility, not parades.

Tô Lâm — “Throne without Crown” — you stand at a grand crossroads. Will you choose the sound of drums and fireworks, or the cries of your people drowned in tears and rain? The choice is yours — and with it, the fate of the nation.

Beware! Heaven, Earth, and Humanity have spoken. Fireworks cannot silence the fire of a people’s wrath. If you refuse to change, history itself will render its verdict — and so will Heaven and Earth.

To change, or to perish. There is no other path.

Note & References:

[1] https://nhandan.vn/bao-so-5-gay-thiet-hai-nang-tai-nhieu-dia-phuong-post903648.html

[2] https://www.chungta.com/nd/tu-lieu-tra-cuu/thien-dia-nhan.html

[3] https://xaydungchinhsach.chinhphu.vn/lich-trinh-chi-tiet-le-dieu-binh-dieu-hanh-danh-sach-cac-diem-ban-phao-hoa-ky-niem-80-nam-quoc-khanh-2-9-2025-119250812122817399.htm

[4] https://www.homepaylater.vn/blog/tim-hieu-le-te-troi-o-dan-nam-giao/

[5] https://haloquynhon.com/tin-tuc/dan-te-troi-tay-son–di-tich-lich-su-tai-binh-dinh

[6] https://mia.vn/cam-nang-du-lich/le-te-troi-o-dan-nam-giao-van-hoa-cung-dinh-doc-dao-tu-thoi-nha-nguyen-2341

[7] https://thuvienphapluat.vn/phap-luat/ho-tro-phap-luat/cam-nang-di-xem-dieu-binh-dieu-hanh-292025-concert-quoc-gia-a80-sap-toi-the-nao-le-quoc-khanh-29-du-230246.html

Our distinguished new fellow, former Vietnamese ambassador and advisor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Dinh Hoang Thang, has written for our website in the context of strategic choices now before the Vietnamese government and people an insightful approach to change.  He draws on Asian approaches to change as the rule of life and so as deserving our respect and analysis.  He notes the role of balance, equilibrium, as the most appropriate sustaining and life-enhancing stance for us to manage as we respond to the changes coming our way.  He implies that since change is a rule of life, it behooves us to think about what causes change?  How can we best adjust to and “profit” from change?

You may read Mr. Thang’s commentary here.

Foreword by Stephen B. Young, Global Executive Director of the Caux Round Table for Moral Capitalism (CRT)

Freedom of the press is not a luxury but the foundation of moral governance and national dignity. As Karl Marx once warned in 1842, when the press is reduced to a mere trade, its “inner freedom” is destroyed — leading inevitably to censorship or the press’s annihilation altogether. Journalism, he insisted, is not a business but the realization of human freedom itself: “wherever there is a press, there must also be freedom of the press.”

The Caux Round Table (CRT) shares this conviction. Its first ethical principle for moral government is that discourse ethics should guide the application of public power. Legitimacy in governance depends on free and open communication among autonomous moral agents who make up the community. Independent journalism is therefore not an enemy of the state but its indispensable ally, ensuring transparency, accountability, and the possibility of just leadership.

Vietnamese voices from the past also affirmed this truth. Phan Đăng Lưu, a founder of the Communist Party’s “revolutionary press,” argued in 1938 that freedom of the press never harms those in power. Newspapers that survive in a free environment reflect authentic social aspirations, which any government wishing to govern responsibly must heed. Suppression of such voices is not a sign of strength but of fragility.

To this, the CRT adds the ethical duties of journalists themselves: to be competent, truthful, and diligent, never distorting facts or concealing adverse information. Journalism, properly practiced, is a noble profession serving the public good. Without these virtues, freedom degenerates into license, and the credibility of the press collapses.

From a Vietnamese philosophical lens, one might even liken a free press to a modern I Ching — a “Book of Changes” for society. Just as the ancient text helped generations discern patterns of transformation and navigate shifting circumstances, today an independent press provides predictive intelligence about social, cultural, and economic dynamics. To read a free press is to read the flows of human ambition, power, and possibility.

With these reflections in mind, readers may turn to the contemporary Vietnamese debate on this very subject. A recent article circulating widely on social media, available here: https://phongtraoduytan.com/chinh-tri/chinh-tri-viet-nam/3076/, illustrates the continuing importance of responsible journalism and the urgent relevance of press freedom in Vietnam today.

Thus, whether seen through Marx’s vision of freedom, the CRT’s ethical principles, or Vietnam’s own philosophical traditions, the conclusion is the same: a censored press is a contradiction in terms, “a perfumed abortion” in Marx’s searing phrase. A free press, by contrast, is the watchful eye of the people’s spirit, the living bond between citizen and state, and the nobility of a nation’s soul.

——————–

Journalism under Tô Lâm: Building or Destroying?

By Phạm Hoàng Thuyên

Behind the recent persecutions of journalists — from the manhunt for martial artist and writer Đoàn Bảo Châu, to the imprisonment of prominent KOLs such as Phạm Đoan Trang and Trương Huy San (Huy Đức), to the planned closures of newsrooms under the guise of “streamlining staff” — lies a single, stark message from the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV): all independent voices must be caged within the Party’s institutional framework.

Yet this warning may have unintended consequences. Loyalty to the regime is no guarantee of safety. The only true source of dignity and legitimacy for journalism — as for every individual who takes up the pen — is to live and work for conscience, for the nation, and for the people. Only then will the homeland honor their service.

On June 21, 2025, during the celebration of “Vietnam Revolutionary Press Day,” General Secretary Tô Lâm declared: “The press must become a force for building confidence, inspiring the aspiration for national development.” An inspiring message at first glance. But reality forces us to ask: is Vietnam’s press today being built up — or steadily destroyed?

1. When Truth Is Hunted

The case of independent journalist, martial artist, and writer Đoàn Bảo Châu is telling. On August 14, 2025, Hanoi police issued a warrant for his arrest on charges of “propaganda against the state.” Forced into hiding, Châu released a public statement: he had done nothing wrong, merely written and spoken the thoughts ordinary citizens held but dared not say (Báo Tiếng Dân, Aug 21, 2025).

The evidence against him? Simply his participation in interviews and civil society forums — activities that should be the basic right of any journalist. Châu collaborated with leading global outlets such as AP, Reuters, the New York Times, and Forbes, and had 215,000 Facebook followers.

But in an environment where press freedoms are suffocated, it is precisely the voices embraced by the public that become targets of repression. Reporters Without Borders (RSF) reports that Vietnam currently holds at least 27 independent journalists in prison, ranking the country near the very bottom of the 2025 World Press Freedom Index (Người Việt, 2025).

If this is what it means to “build confidence,” then that confidence has been reduced to silence — survival through submission.

2. When Mainstream Journalism Becomes a Megaphone

Even the official press — supposedly “the eyes and ears of the people” — has repeatedly shown it is never truly independent.

Take the case of Lê Hồng Sơn, former director of Ho Chi Minh City’s Department of Education and Training. For years, journalists were stonewalled and dismissed when questioning his office. At one point, the department even proposed disciplining a reporter for daring to investigate procurement scandals. Ultimately, Sơn himself was expelled from the Party for corruption in equipment bidding (Báo Tiếng Dân, Aug 22, 2025).

The haunting question remains: had the press been allowed to do its job back then, could society have avoided paying such a heavy, belated price?

3. Rumors of the Death of Tuổi Trẻ

It is not only individuals who are under siege. Entire institutions face erasure. Reports that Tuổi Trẻ — Vietnam’s most popular daily with more than half a million copies in circulation — may be dissolved and merged into the struggling Sài Gòn Giải Phóng have unsettled the public (Sài Gòn Giải Phóng, 2025).

Tuổi Trẻ is more than a newspaper. It is an heir to the tradition of student and youth activism in Saigon, a financially self-sustaining publication with a broad readership. To strip it of its identity and fold it into a Party organ with little traction is widely seen as the suffocation of a brand once synonymous with hope and trust.

Is this the dawn of a “new era” for Vietnamese journalism, or merely a historic regression — a future with only one voice left, that of the Party committee?

4. A Comprehensive Campaign to Seal All Mouths

Since 2016, more than 70 journalists have been imprisoned, including the high-profile case of Phạm Đoan Trang, sentenced to nine years (BBC Vietnamese, 2022). Since Tô Lâm assumed the post of General Secretary in August 2024, repression has only deepened.

Trương Huy San (Huy Đức) — once lauded for fearless reporting on high-level corruption — was sentenced to 30 months in prison in early 2025 (VOA Tiếng Việt, 2025a). Nor is the crackdown limited to “dissident” voices. Even moderate insiders — retired officials, establishment scholars, cautious commentators — have had accounts frozen, broadcasts cut, and platforms denied.

This is not selective censorship. It is a systematic campaign to extinguish dissent at every level.

Meanwhile, the Party has pushed forward with its policy of “one newspaper per ministry, province, or agency,” under the pretext of reducing costs and streamlining staff. If cost-saving were the true motive, a far simpler solution would be to let newspapers operate independently, self-financed, free from state payrolls. But that option is never permitted.

5. Journalism as a Corrective Mechanism

In every society, journalism is not only a mirror of reality but a corrective mechanism for government. Policies inevitably lag behind social needs. The press is the warning system, the voice of criticism, the channel for timely adjustment.

Journalistic truth may be uncomfortable — but discomfort is essential for progress. History shows that a society without a free press is like a body without an immune system: it may appear stable on the surface, but disease festers within.

6. Building or Destroying?

Under Tô Lâm, the authority of the General Secretary has been consolidated. Yet the paradox remains: the tighter the Party cages journalists and KOLs within its “institutional framework,” the faster public trust erodes.

If Tuổi Trẻ is forced to vanish, if dozens of journalists are imprisoned or hunted down, these are not isolated events. Together they paint a bleak picture: journalism is being transformed from a bridge of the people into the monopolized tool of the Party.

From newsroom closures to the “streamlining” drive, the regime’s implicit message to society may well backfire: loyalty to the Party offers no protection.

The only safeguard for the dignity and legitimacy of journalism — as for every journalist — is to live and work for conscience, for the nation, and for the people. Only then will history record their service with honor (VOA Tiếng Việt, 2025b).

Đinh Hoàng Thắng

Fellow of the Caux Round Table 

Summary: The article outlines a new strategic orientation for an era advancing a “Red River Renaissance”, a strategy based on five pillars: repositioning national identity, mastering complexity through analysis and forecasting, creating value rooted in the ideology of cultural continuity, reforming the Communist Party of Vietnam into a constructive, service-oriented organization, and steering soft diplomacy to proactively exert influence. The paper concludes: in today’s gray-zone environment, the capacity for Vietnam’s survival and development does not stem from hard power alone, but grows out of wisdom, observational acuity, and the ability to build consensus.

“What secret charm leads me toward the God I adore,

Who frees me from the world and casts off all my chains,

What bliss is there for love so fair,

If not to fashion dreams amid the madness,

With a mortal heart and secular love!”

(Adapted from Pierre Corneille, Polyeucte, 1642) [1]

Introduction

In the contemporary world of deep uncertainty, the lines between war and peace, ally and adversary, order and chaos are increasingly blurred. There is no longer a single straight road to the future — only bends, detours, and gray zones — where strategic nerve and political wisdom become existential assets.

The U.S.–Russia summit in Alaska (August 16, 2025) offered a warning sign: if Moscow can legitimize territory it occupies in Ukraine through an agreement brokered by two major powers, might Beijing be tempted to apply the same “precedent” to Taiwan or the South China Sea? [2] If an international order grounded in the rule of law, human rights, and sovereign equality gives way to a new order where strength decides everything, then is the message not clear: middle and small powers will have their fate imposed on them unless they can determine it for themselves?

Standing in that vulnerable gray swath of history, it would be catastrophic for Vietnam to remain a bystander. To avoid that fate, we must shed doctrinaire thinking and have the courage to build a new cognitive paradigm — one based on rooted wisdom, analytical judgment, an acceptance that flux is the norm, urgent institutional reform, and a timely, forward-looking diplomacy.

1.⁠ ⁠Repositioning National Identity to Shape National Strategy

What identity should serve as the foundation for strategy? [3] Vietnam must answer this core question: who are we in an era when the international legal order is weakening and coercive power is reasserting itself as the author of history?

Traditionally, the Vietnamese have not treated chaos as meaningless. I Ching teaches that disorder is a kind of dynamic order, governed by changeable laws that can be discovered by the wise among us. From that insight, wisdom becomes a precondition for survival: recognize trends, and preserve the immutable amidst the mutable. It is precisely thanks to such insight that our predecessors were able to assert their identity amidst the whirl of global power.

Today’s national strategy therefore cannot be mere reactive improvisation. It must begin with repositioning identity: Vietnam is a country that loves peace but will not accept subjugation — a middle power that refuses to let its future be determined by others.

2.⁠ ⁠Mastering Disorder — Building Analytical and Predictive Capacity

The current turning point of the post-modern world tempts people to abandon both reason and faith, strips order of higher purpose, and glorifies unbounded chaos as freedom. In such disorder, any people without analytical and predictive capacity is easily swept away.

Vietnamese tradition includes a habit of “reading” chaos to find a way forward. Systems of knowledge and observational methods — emerging from different philosophical schools —  helped our ancestors find levers of support when times are uncertain. Phan Bội Châu studied the I Ching (Dịch) to reflect on the path of struggle. [4] That is evidence that even if the international legal framework collapses, a people can rely on powers of observation, analysis, and foresight to survive.

Today, that analytical skill must be modernized into a suitable methodology for strategic-analysis: reading the trends of coercive power, forecasting global risks, and proactively “moving one step ahead” of predictable events. This is not occultism; it is a form of systemic, modern knowledge built from Vietnamese intellect and global analytic and forecasting science. We cannot change the global chessboard, but we can understand it and so more effectively engage with the pieces as placed and as they might move. 

3.⁠ ⁠From Reaction to Creation — A New Doctrine of Enduring Vietnameseness

For too long Vietnam has tended to react to events. But perpetual reaction only trails history. An uncertain world forces us to shift from reaction to creative initiative — from defensive postures to building enduring strengths.

Vietnam needs a new commitment to an enduring Vietnameseness, which precisely would be the moral courage to not fear flux but rather to treat it as a constant. In the interplay of yin and yang, order and disorder, opportunities for creative construction are always present.

This requires a change of mentality: instead of an inward, short-term calculus for preservation, Vietnam must commit to creation — create standards, create value, create influence. This is not merely survival; it is the living expression in today’s world of a many generational commitment to Vietnameseness. [5]

4.⁠ ⁠Institutional Reform — From Revolutionary Party to Party of Service

The Communist Party of Vietnam [CPV] can continue to lead if it transforms from a revolutionary party into a party of service. The 14th National Congress is not merely a milestone; it should be the starting point. To retain a central role, the Party needs to move beyond a “centralized leadership” model and become the “architect of sub-systems.”

Institutional reform can follow the “The Principle of Accumulation and Dispersion” (Tích – Tản) [6]. Pooling resources: from knowledge and trust to social innovation. Decentralizing administration: delegating authority to localities, civil society, businesses, and the press; making state governance transparent. Moving from totalizing control to constructive design, the Party must learn to delegate and to adjust its policies taking accurate data into consideration. The Party should first “accumulate” resources (talent, knowledge, trust), then design the operating architecture (laws, norms, feedback), and, third, “disperse” —empowering  all sectors of society.

The governing party of a modern state must be accountable through performance, operate on data, and engage in dialogue rather than impose. The center of institutional reform is not enlarging central power but redesigning systems to aggregate and then apply strength from below — from individuals, firms, and localities. Only when the people are treated as the primary actors to be served — not merely objects to be controlled — can the Party become a force for the creation of solutions and prosperity.

To sustain leadership, the CPV cannot rely on political-economic formulas frozen in the previous century. To be a creative, service-oriented Party, it must lead in forecasting, adapt to open dialogue with citizens and the world, and show flexibility. It must be willing to change when circumstances so require, while remaining steadfast on the immutable core goals— national interest and sovereignty. This is not a renunciation of revolutionary heritage but a transformation from revolution toward constructive governance. [7]

An urgent further demand of institutional reform is national reconciliation and social healing. Reform is not merely an administrative technique; it must be an act of mending and opening. If we have been able to establish “comprehensive strategic partnerships” with former adversaries, why have we not achieved full reconciliation at home and between the homeland and the overseas Vietnamese community? Only by removing the scars of the past can social energy be fully deployed so that, through togetherness, the future can be well built.

5.⁠ ⁠Timely Diplomacy — From Defense to Building Soft Influence

Vietnamese diplomacy in the new era must go beyond mere defense. The tradition of “keeping the immutable in order to respond to the mutable” should be upgraded: do not merely respond — transform to shape influence. [8]

The spirit of the new cognitive paradigm asserts that yin and yang are always in motion, transforming within a complementary, oppositional relationship. Vietnamese diplomacy must mirror that: flexible in detail, firm in principle; willing to cooperate when needed, restrained when necessary. Whether “pausing” or “winning hearts strategy,” every posture is a means to protect the national self-determination and sovereignty.

To achieve this, Vietnam must develop diplomacy on three levels: national, regional, and global. In rule-making — at tactical or technical levels — compromises may be possible, but at the strategic level we must not “straddle two sides” and so cling to the dangerous rationale of “neither side, but choose what is right…” [9]

Done well, diplomacy will not only keep the country secure, but also turn Vietnam into a voice of influence—a player, not a passive actor.

6.⁠ ⁠“Red River Renaissance”: Leveraging East Asian Wisdom

Based on the five pillars of the new cognitive paradigm, why shouldn’t Hanoi aspire to launch a “Red River Renaissance” to help build durable security and long-term prosperity for East Asia in this era of cascading instability?

Uncertainty also opens doors to achievement when we act with virtue and wisdom. The 42nd hexagram in the I Ching suggests that if a leader dares to “cross the great river,” fill what is empty, and guide events with foresight, great results will follow.

At the core of East Asian wisdom is balance. China has Taoism and the Doctrine of the Mean. In Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Laos, Buddhism teaches the Middle Way that leads to prosperity and wellbeing; Buddhism has left a profound imprint on this region for centuries. In Japan, Shinto seeks harmony between humans and nature. In Malaysia and Indonesia, the Qur’an instructs respect for balance. 

Conclusion

Vietnam can certainly host an annual gathering of government leaders, thinkers, scholars, and philosophers — an “East Asian DAVOS,” for example — to seek wise responses to the transformations facing the global community.

Concretely, Vietnam can act as a trusted friend and broker, promoting consensus between Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN. This would help form a reassuring balance of power to the benefit of middle and small powers in a peaceful, culturally rich, East Asia.

Vietnam has already made contributions beyond its borders. Professor Võ Tòng Xuân achieved notable success in Sierra Leone and several African countries by introducing high-yield rice varieties that helped build irrigated rice agriculture. [10] In the United States, France, Australia, Canada, and elsewhere, Vietnamese diasporas have also achieved remarkable success in economics, culture, and politics. These examples confirm that even in distant lands, Vietnam is not forgotten.

The world has entered a gray zone of history. But grayness is not a dead end — it is open space where any choice can become a turning point. To be strategically autonomous amid uncertainty, Vietnam must reposition identity, master disorder, create value, reform institutions, and expand soft influence. Above all, it must nurture a new cognitive paradigm — deeply Vietnamese in character but connected to humanity’s intellect: a paradigm capable of forging an “East Asian consensus.”

Interpretation of “order” and “uncertainty” goes beyond Dr. Kissinger’s conclusions. [11] More important in standing at the threshold of a new order is to validate the five pillars implementing the above proposed cognitive paradigm. [12] And as East Asian wisdom has long taught: change is eternal. Yet amidst change, people who possess wisdom are the people who survive intact.

 

Author’s note: Dr. Đinh Hoàng Thắng is a former Ambassador of Vietnam to the The Royal Netherlands, former Head of the Leadership Advisory Group at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Vietnam, and a current Fellow of CRT. 

References:

[1] https://suckhoedoisong.vn/cao-thom-lan-gio-cormeille-nghi-gi-169124712.htm

Pierre Corneille, Polyeucte (1606–1684) is a foundational figure of classical French tragedy. Polyeucte centers on a martyr figure and the force of Christian faith. The stanza above is an adapted translation from the French: “Quel charme me conduit vers le Dieu que j’adore? / Je triomphe du monde, et je sors de ses fers / Heureux qui peut aimer d’une amour toute pure, / Mais malheureux celui qui fonde son bonheur.” — Adapted from Pierre Corneille, Polyeucte (1642)

[2] https://www.facebook.com/… [Beijing will observe the Trump–Putin summit] (access link as provided)

[3] https://nhandan.vn/khang-dinh-vi-the-van-hoa-viet-nam-trong-ky-nguyen-moi-thuong-hieu-van-hoa-gia-tang-uy-tin-quoc-gia-post889560.html

[4] https://www.chungta.com/nd/tu-lieu-tra-cuu/phan_boi_chau-nha_van_hoa.html

[5] https://www.voatiengviet.com/a/co-mot-chu-nghia-truong-ton-viet-nam/7961206.html

[6] TS. Nguyễn Thế Hùng: Tích Tản – Một nguyên lý, một tầm nhìn, một con đường (Information Publishing House, 2025)

[7] https://tuoitrethudo.vn/chuyen-doi-trang-thai-sang-kien-tao-chu-dong-phuc-vu-nhan-dan-280478.html

[8] https://www.bbc.com/vietnamese/articles/cdx5v0448wyo — “Vietnam and ‘timely diplomacy’: from the bamboo metaphor to national strategy”

[9] https://boxitvn.online/?p=94713 — “’Not choosing sides, choosing righteousness…’ — a dangerous diplomatic philosophy!”

[10] https://siwrp.org.vn/tin-tuc/giao-su-vo-tong-xuan-va-tam-nhin-cay-lua-xuyen-bien-gioi_4333.html

[11] https://www.academia.edu/118015198/Kissinger_Henry_World_Order_New_York_Penguin_Press_2014 — Henry Kissinger, World Order (Penguin Books, 2015) synthesizes centuries of diplomatic thought and geopolitical structure through historical case studies. Foundational, but only a starting point for strategic reflection.

[12] https://tapchithoidai.diendan.org/ThoiDai36/201736_DinhHoangThang.pdf — Đinh Hoàng Thắng (2017), “Vietnam and the Pre-Threshold of a New World Order,” Thời Đại No. 36. The author highlights the fluidity of both Vietnam and the evolving global order and proposes a conceptual framework (the “P&DOWN” paradigm) for navigating transformation.

Stephen B. Young, Global Executive Director

The following commentary presents a second case study on the prevalence of crony capitalism in a developing country – Vietnam – a nation that could quickly catch up with the economic achievements of Singapore and South Korea if it adopted a more “moral” form of capitalism.

Similar to last week’s case of “Vietnamese cars, Vietnamese goods…”, this time we examine how crony capitalism is being used to exploit government allocations of land use.

The commentary below highlights “crony capitalism,” where, as the analysis suggests, government officials secretly colluded to share a business opportunity. Those with political power in a one-party regime need money to build influence and attract “clients,” but they cannot openly engage in private business. As a result, those in authority favor one project over another, granting licenses and permits – essentially “green-lighting” plans.

Businesses that receive such “favors” reap large profits, then divide the spoils – one way or another – with the decision-making officials.

I have heard Vietnamese joke that in Vietnam, “the first administrative document you submit to an official is an envelope of cash.”

From this commentary, we can infer that in Vietnam today, not just a few individuals but the entire ruling apparatus has turned into a political-economic structure of rent-seeking by those with political authority and influence. In reality, Vietnam’s constitutional structure has become one “of interest groups, by interest groups, and for interest groups.”

“Strategic planning” in an economy subordinated both to Party power and to unaccountable administrative fiat creates countless opportunities to extract personal gain from public assets.

The commentary makes clear that under such a regime, the practice of politics is not about serving the nation with fidelity and integrity, but rather about leveraging whatever power one holds to gain private ownership of financial assets – monetizing one’s position.

In Vietnam there is a cynical saying: “If you can’t take care of Brother Three, you’d better take care of Brother Four.”

As has been demonstrated again and again – especially in the outstanding book Failed States by Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson – corruption and authoritarianism are like two peas in a pod, or like a shadow that always follows power: whoever holds power inevitably has a dark side shadowing them.

The author makes a strong case that building a new international airport at Long Thanh, far from Ho Chi Minh City, makes no sense under any calculation of market rationality. He then offers five alternative solutions that would better respond to supply and demand realities.

In my view, his warning is highly credible: if the Long Thanh airport project goes forward without consultation or input from those directly affected by such an enormous expenditure, then a perfectly viable solution will be ignored. The current Tan Son Nhat airport will become obsolete, while a redundant new airport will be built at Long Thanh.

In that case, Vietnam will continue to sink deeper into the gray zone of crony capitalism, unable to become truly wealthy or strong, always misallocating resources by diverting funds away from the public good in order to serve private interests – the very sort Karl Marx castigated in Das Kapital as “Mr. Moneybags.”

To rephrase another famous line of Karl Marx, we might say that crony capitalism “takes from those with ability and gives to others according to their wishes.”

Rent-seeking by the well-connected and by government privilege-holders is nothing less than social theft, not social righteousness.

You can find the second case study of crony capitalism in Vietnam on Vietnamese social media here:
👉 https://phongtraoduytan.com/chinh-tri/chinh-tri-viet-nam/3065/

And you may read the English version of the commentary below:

Turning Long Thanh into an International Airport to Strangle Tan Son Nhat: A Classic Case of “Crony Capitalism”

If today the people and conscientious managers remain silent, then tomorrow it won’t just be one airport being strangled, but the entire nation dragged into the abyss.

By: Tran Quoc Sach

1. Introduction: Airports and the Truth Behind the Glitter

A metropolis like Ho Chi Minh City—with more than 10 million residents plus surrounding satellite towns—having two airports is completely normal. Around the world, there are countless examples: Tokyo has Narita and Haneda; London has Heathrow, Gatwick, and Stansted; Paris has Charles de Gaulle and Orly. The question is not whether “two airports are necessary,” but why there is such a deliberate attempt now to make Long Thanh the main international hub for Ho Chi Minh City, effectively strangling the current airport Tan Son Nhat—the nation’s most important gateway.

The truth behind the so-called “mega project of the century” Long Thanh is this: (1) It is not merely a technical or planning issue, but a living example of crony capitalism, where political power and vested interests collude, turning public infrastructure into a tool for private enrichment. If this model is not stopped, it will drag the entire nation into a bottomless pit—rather than lifting it up, as the empty socialist slogans claim.

 2. Tan Son Nhat’s Golden Land: National Assets Turned into a Feast for Interest Groups

Colonel Phan Tuong—the officer who took over Tan Son Nhat on April 30, 1975—once revealed the following (2):

• Under the French, the airport was planned at 1,800 hectares.

• Under the Republic of Vietnam, operations expanded to 1,850 hectares.

• After 1975, “under our management,” the area shrank to just 1,100 hectares.

So where did the missing 750 hectares go? The answer is obvious: golf courses and residential areas. Prime land in the heart of Saigon, instead of serving aviation and national defense, was converted into lucrative commercial projects. This is not only absurd from a planning perspective but has direct consequences: drainage canals and reservoirs that once lay under that land were filled in. Runway flooding today is not caused by “tidal surges” or “climate change”—fancy phrases state media throws around—but simply because the drainage system has been strangled.

Now, instead of reclaiming those 750 hectares to expand Tan Son Nhat,  officials concocted the narrative: “Tan Son Nhat is overloaded, so we must build Long Thanh.” In other words, those in charge created a problem only to sell their own “solutions”—solutions that are costly, irrational, yet hugely profitable for their cronies.

 3. Crony Capitalism: When the State Becomes a Tool of Cliques

To understand why Tan Son Nhat is being strangled, we must revisit the concept of crony capitalism (3).

In a healthy society with democratic institutions, politics serves the people, while businesses operate according to market rules. But under crony capitalism, these two spheres secretly collude to carve up benefits, through shady deals between corrupt politicians and unscrupulous businessmen:

• Politicians need money but cannot directly do business.

• They use their power to channel projects, allocate budgets, and greenlight planning for their “backyard” companies.

• Those companies reap profits, then kick back “slices of the pie” to the policymakers.

Gradually, not just individuals but the entire ruling apparatus morphs into a political–economic mafia network. The state ceases to be “of the people, by the people, for the people,” and becomes a state “of the interest groups, by the interest groups, for the interest groups.” In such a system, every so-called “strategic plan” is nothing but a cover for looting public assets.

In this case, Long Thanh is the shiny “cover,” while the 750 hectares of golden land at Tan Son Nhat are the first juicy prize. Once Tan Son Nhat is stripped of its role and Long Thanh crowned the new hub, the entire 1,800 hectares of prime Saigon land will gradually fall into the hands of these cronies—“Anh Ba, Anh Tu,” and their cliques.

In a democracy, politicians serve the nation according to the will of the people. They dare not abuse power for personal gain, because once they lose the voters’ trust, they must resign and return to being ordinary citizens. By contrast, in a dictatorship—an authoritarian system—politics is not about serving the country but about exploiting power for illicit enrichment. Those in power cling to their seats solely to plunder, and corruption can never be eradicated. It simply mutates from one face to another, from the faction of “Anh Ba” to the faction of “Anh Tu.” That is why dictatorship and corruption are inseparable—two sides of the same coin.

The Long Thanh project is not an unsolvable issue. The original rationale was to “ease the load” on Tan Son Nhat (despite strong opposition from experts). Yet the most rational solution is simple: return the land seized for golf courses, and Tan Son Nhat could easily expand to handle 80 million passengers annually, while continuing to operate normally. Only when Tan Son Nhat truly reaches capacity should traffic gradually shift to Long Thanh. In reality, Tan Son Nhat handled 40 million passengers in 2023, and only 38 million in 2024. At this fluctuating rate, even a decade from now it may still not be overloaded.

But to “rescue their cronies,” the public is told that there is no option left but to immediately divert international routes to Long Thanh, while rushing to build connections between the two airports. Connections may be necessary—but are they urgent, when Tan Son Nhat still functions normally? If you, as a journalist, so much as “poke your nose” into this subject, the authoritarian machine will come crashing down on you—just like how Pol Pot’s gang, once fostered by China, unleashed terror. In such a regime, at any time, anywhere, the government sees you as the enemy. Why? Because by exposing the truth, you threaten to take away their share of the pie.

 4. A Hundred-Year Vision Built with Patchwork, Fixing Mistakes as They Go

A major infrastructure project should be based on a hundred-year vision. But let’s look at reality:

• Metro Line 1 in Ho Chi Minh City: approved in 2007, started in 2008, scheduled to finish in 2018. After endless delays, only in 2024 did trial runs begin—17 years for 19 kilometers of track.

• Metro Line 2: approved in 2010, groundbreaking in 2025, projected completion by 2030. But who dares believe that projection?

• The HCMC–Long Thanh–Dau Giay expressway, just 55 km long, took 16 years to finish—yet was already congested the moment it opened.

In this context, Long Thanh is painted as a “project of the century.” But once the die is cast, people will suddenly realize: no metro connection, no high-speed rail, no proper transfer infrastructure. Traveling from Tan Son Nhat to Long Thanh takes 3–5 hours. Who would want to book a connecting flight under such conditions? This is not long-term vision—this is patchwork, fixing mistakes as they go (4).

The truth: Long Thanh looks beautiful on paper, but in reality it’s just a black hole for taxpayer money—bloated costs, endless overruns—while essential infrastructure for the people is neglected.

 5. Solutions & Recommendations: Reclaim Public Infrastructure for the People

Facing this disaster, to protect national interests and stop the rampant crony-capitalist model, concrete and decisive actions are needed:

1. Return the 750 hectares to Tan Son Nhat. The golf course must be reclaimed immediately, restoring its original aviation function. This is the optimal solution: expand capacity while also fixing flooding caused by blocked drainage.

2. Stop the hidden scheme to “strangle Tan Son Nhat” by designating Long Thanh the central hub. The two airports must complement each other, not be forced into competition.

3. Make transparent all interests tied to Long Thanh. Publicly disclose contractors, investors, and financial terms so citizens can monitor.

4. Establish independent oversight for strategic infrastructure projects. We cannot allow the same apparatus to design, approve, implement, and supervise. That’s like players both kicking the ball and blowing the whistle! Oversight must include civil society, independent experts, and a free press.

5. Reform land policy at its root. As long as land remains “collectively owned, managed by the state,” it will remain fertile ground for corruption and cronyism. Legal mechanisms must prevent arbitrary conversion of public land, especially strategic assets like airports, seaports, and rail stations.

6. Conclusion: Crony Capitalism—the Road to Ruin

Under the slogan of building Long Thanh to advance toward “socialism,” the reality is the opposite: a political–economic mafia in action. Public assets are being carved up, infrastructure strangled, while citizens are left to shoulder public debt, traffic jams, and flooding (5).

This is not “progress toward socialism.” This is a plunge into ruin. The vultures of crony capitalism are tearing apart the flesh of this nation—its land, its infrastructure, its resources, and even its trust.

A nation can only rise when public infrastructure is protected as sacred assets, when the state truly belongs to the people, and when planning is based on long-term vision—not the short-sighted greed of interest groups.

Tan Son Nhat today is the test. If the people and conscientious managers remain silent, then tomorrow it won’t just be one airport being strangled—it will be the entire nation dragged into the abyss.

 

References:

(1) https://phapluatplus.baophapluat.vn/ro-dan-hinh-hai-sieu-du-an-san-bay-long-thanh-86628.html

(2) https://vietnamfinance.vn/dai-ta-phan-tuong–nguoi-tiep-quan-tan-son-nhat-sau-ngay-thong-nhat-d49765.html

(3) https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/crony%20capitalism

(4) https://tienphong.vn/mat-5-tieng-di-chuyen-giua-san-bay-long-thanh-tan-son-nhat-thi-khong-ai-muon-dat-ve-post1755356.tpo

(5) https://tuoitre.vn/thiet-hai-hang-ti-usd-vi-ha-tang-qua-tai-nhung-giai-phap-tp-hcm-can-lam-ngay-20250807095909853.htm

Yesterday, World War II ended effectively 80 years ago, when the Empire of Japan agreed to an unconditional surrender to the Allied Powers.

The War had begun with aggressions – by Germany on Poland and by Japan on Great Britain’s colony in Singapore and then on the U.S.  The Japanese had previously invaded Manchuria in 1931 and China itself in 1937.

Such aggression had been outlawed by the Kellogg-Briand Pact of 1928.  Frank Kellogg, then the U.S. Secretary of State, was a lawyer from St. Paul, Minnesota (his office was right down the street from where ours is now).  Later and also from Minnesota, Charles Denny of ADC Telecommunications and Robert MacGregor of Dayton Hudson Corporation (now Target) took the lead in proposing the Caux Round Table Principles for Business, which have since been internationally recognized.

Today, the Kellogg-Briand Pact, affirmed by the Charter of the United Nations, has been violated by Russia in Ukraine and by Hamas in Gaza.  Though Hamas is not a sovereign government, its obligations are nevertheless defined by a duty not to cross borders and kill the citizens of another country.

Aggressions, small or large, trigger wars which can be cruel and very destructive.  Japan’s aggression led to the deaths 80 years ago this month of tens of thousands of non-combatants from the dropping of two atomic bombs.

The moral obligation not to act as an aggressor applies to all terrorists, no matter how righteous they believe themselves to be.

Some terrorists, in our time, have invoked their God as legitimating their aggressions.  But if that God is the Allah whose will is revealed to us in the Qur’an, to no avail.  Qur’an teaches, to me, that its God is one of mercy and compassion, that only its God – not you or me, not even his Prophet Muhammad – has authority to judge the fates of people, for better or worse.  Qur’an affirms that the Prophet Muhammad was sent “only to warn.”

So, if we presume to usurp God’s privilege of judging others harshly without our having regard for his willingness to be merciful (which we cannot know), we elevate ourselves to be his equal in decision-making, which, according to Qur’an, is a heinous sin.

Today, President Donald Trump meets with President Vladimir Putin to discuss Russia’s aggression against the Ukrainian people.  Will President Trump stand firm in upholding the moral ideal of no aggression, no time, no where?  It would be the civilized thing to do.