[This essay is sponsored by the Caux Round Table for Moral Capitalism (CRT) as a contribution to public policy discussions in Vietnam and the United States on Vietnam’s opportunities for growth and development, in the context of the CRT’s global ethical principles for capitalism and government]
I Ching Hexagram “Lake over Thunder – Following” (隨): What to do When Domestic and Foreign Policies Are Two Sides of the Same Coin?
Following external pressures while ignoring the will of one’s own people… Internal changes such as bureaucratic reshuffling, administrative downsizing, or inspections of major projects already underway may satisfy certain factions, but they have not yet liberated the vast social energies that have long been constrained.
Stephen B. Young & Nguyễn Thế Hùng
Introduction: The Political Wisdom of the “I Ching”
In the “I Ching” (Book of Changes), the hexagram “Lake over Thunder – Following” (隨) conveys a profound political principle: when historical circumstances undergo powerful transformation, leaders cannot simply resist the currents of change. Instead, they must align themselves with the evolving patterns of the time and guide their nation through the turbulence.
The symbolic structure of this hexagram is revealing. The upper trigram is “Lake” (Dui), associated with joy, openness, and social harmony. The lower trigram is “Thunder” (Zhen), representing sudden movement, awakening, and dramatic change. The imagery suggests a society experiencing powerful forces of transformation beneath the surface, while the leadership above must maintain balance, responsiveness, and harmony.
The classical judgment for this hexagram reads: “Following. Supreme success. Perseverance brings benefit. No blame.”
In other words, when a society responds to change according to fundamental principles, it can achieve prosperity, benefit the many, and maintain long-term stability.
However, “following” in the I Ching does not mean blind compliance. The text consistently emphasizes that true success arises only when strength and flexibility are balanced, and when internal legitimacy aligns with external adaptation.
Viewed through this lens, a major tension becomes visible in contemporary Vietnam: foreign policy seeks flexibility and integration with the world, while domestic political structures remain constrained by outdated institutional patterns.
When the two sides of the same system operate according to contradictory logics, the balance described in the hexagram can begin to break down.
1. Iran, Venezuela, and Cuba: Global Thunder Before the Storm
The inner trigram of this hexagram is Thunder (Zhen). In nature, thunder never erupts without warning. It is always preceded by the accumulation of dark clouds, pressure, and storm.
Recent developments in several countries illustrate this dynamic clearly.
In Venezuela, years of economic collapse, corruption, and authoritarian governance have produced extreme levels of social frustration. The anger of the population accumulated over decades before erupting into political upheaval.
In Iran, economic crisis has intensified as currency depreciation and inflation erode living standards. Public dissatisfaction has triggered waves of protests and growing instability within the political system.
In Cuba, the situation may be even more stark. Poverty and stagnation are visible throughout cities and rural areas. The country has experienced widespread blackouts, shortages of fuel, and lack of food supplies—clear signs of a system exhausted after decades of isolation and inefficient governance.
These examples illustrate an important political law: A regime may survive for a long time through political control, but without institutional and economic reform it eventually faces systemic crisis.
In many cases, the trigger for change is not purely domestic. External pressures often accelerate the moment of transformation.
The assertive foreign policy of Donald Trump toward countries such as Venezuela, Iran, and potentially Cuba should not be interpreted solely as a geopolitical struggle for resources like oil. Rather, it may function as a trigger mechanism within a larger historical process.
From the perspective of the I Ching, such actions correspond to the word “Yuan” (Origin or Foundational Principle) in the hexagram’s judgment. They attempt to reshape the underlying principles governing international order.
The key question, therefore, is not whether change is coming. The key question is which national leaders will recognize the emerging principles of the new era and adapt accordingly.
2. Should Vietnam “Follow the Times” in This Global Storm?
Navigating between competing great powers is not automatically equivalent to practicing the wisdom of the Hexagram “Following”.
Vietnam currently faces intense geopolitical pressures. It must maintain relations with China, while simultaneously deepening economic and strategic cooperation with the United States, Europe, and other major powers.
In this context, the upcoming visit of Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary Tô Lâm to Beijing fits the logic of pragmatic adjustment: one cannot ignore geopolitical realities and must adapt to protect national interests.
Yet the I Ching warns that genuine “following” only produces positive results when it rests upon moral legitimacy and a stable ethical center.
Without such a center, flexibility risks degenerating into dependence.
True strategic autonomy requires something deeper than diplomatic maneuvering. It requires internal legitimacy rooted in the trust and participation of the people.
3. Vietnam’s Greatest Paradox
This brings us to Vietnam’s most fundamental contradiction today.
Vietnam is seeking deep integration into the global system—economically, technologically, and strategically. It has signed numerous trade agreements, expanded foreign investment, and established comprehensive strategic partnerships with many countries.
Yet domestically, the political system continues to severely limit fundamental civil liberties, including freedom of expression, freedom of the press, and broader civic participation.
This creates the central paradox: Following external change while not following the will of the people at home.
Internal reforms—such as administrative restructuring, anti-corruption campaigns, or oversight of large state projects—may resolve conflicts among political factions. But these actions have not yet unleashed the enormous social and creative potential of Vietnam’s nearly 100 million citizens.
If Vietnam truly wishes to “follow the time,” it must liberate the productive energies of its society.
A country cannot realistically aspire to become a Comprehensive Strategic Partner (CSP) with democratic nations while simultaneously maintaining a political system that restricts core civil liberties.
In the long run, foreign policy and domestic governance cannot travel on separate paths.
The I Ching teaches that yin and yang must remain balanced. If one side develops while the other is suppressed, the entire system becomes unstable.
4. The “Illusion of Stability” in Closed Systems
One of the greatest dangers faced by closed political systems is self-deception produced by their own propaganda structures.
When information flows are tightly controlled, ruling elites may come to believe that society remains stable—even when deep transformations are occurring beneath the surface.
This produces what might be called an illusion of stability.
Propaganda does not only reassure the population; it can also prevent those in power from accurately perceiving the real condition of the country they govern.
In the digital age, however, this situation is becoming increasingly unsustainable.
As Vietnam integrates more deeply into the global economy and as internet connectivity expands, citizens inevitably compare their own political and economic realities with those of other societies.
Information, knowledge, and global benchmarks are steadily reshaping how people understand:
• their rights
• their opportunities
• and the legitimacy of political institutions.
5. Following the Time — But Ultimately Following the People
The deeper message of Hexagram Following is not that societies should simply align with the strongest power.
Rather, it teaches that the ultimate force in history is the collective will of the people.
Wise diplomacy is necessary. But diplomacy cannot substitute for internal reform.
If a country truly seeks to integrate into the modern world—economically, technologically, and politically—it must build institutions based on:
• rule of law
• transparency
• and respect for human rights.
These principles are not merely moral ideals. In today’s global system, they function increasingly as structural requirements for sustainable development and international credibility.
Without such foundations, foreign policy strategies become temporary patchwork solutions.
Democratic societies cannot be indefinitely misled or manipulated. Their governments operate under real constitutions, competitive elections, and the constant scrutiny of voters.
Even when policymakers act from pragmatic interests rather than moral conviction, they must still respond to ethical expectations embedded within democratic institutions.
The earlier intellectual work on Moral Capitalism, as well as the continuing discussions within the CRT (Caux Round Table) community, reflect precisely this fundamental principle: societies endure when economic power is aligned with moral legitimacy.
Conclusion:
The hexagram “Lake over Thunder – Following” teaches that political wisdom lies in recognizing when the fundamental principles of an era are changing. To recognize that shift is to understand how to move with the current of history rather than against it. But the defining currents of the 21st century are not limited to geopolitical competition among great powers. They also include:
• the rise of civil society
• the global diffusion of rule-of-law principles
• and the growing human demand for dignity, freedom, and civic participation.
If domestic and foreign policy are understood as two sides of the same coin, the strategic choice facing any nation becomes clearer. A country can adapt to the direction of history, reform its institutions, and integrate authentically into the international community. Or it can continue along an older trajectory—one that many nations have already followed, only to discover too late that delaying reform merely magnifies the crises that eventually arrive.
Stephen B. Young, JD, is a retired Dean and Professor of Law at Hamline Law School. His book Moral Capitalism is being published in Vietnamese. His scholarly works on Vietnam include The Tradition of Human Rights in China and Vietnam, a study of classical jurisprudence in China and Vietnam. When serving in the United States Agency for International Development in Saigon (1968-1971) he studied the I Ching (Kinh Dich) with Mr. Duong Thai Ban, a noted master of the art of consulting the ancient hexagrams. He has been interviewed by the BBC in Vietnamese on his book Kissinger’s Betrayal: How American Lost the Vietnam War and has been published on the Tieng Dan website.
Dr. Nguyễn Thế Hùng, a Vietnamese physicist holding a Ph.D. in Physics, is a scholar known for his strong scientific foundation and analytical approach to philosophical and cultural studies. With a deep interest in exploring ancient principles, he brings a modern scientific perspective to traditional Eastern thought. His latest publication on I Ching (Kinh Dịch), one of the oldest philosophical classics of East Asia, reflects this interdisciplinary vision.
In the book, Dr. Nguyễn seeks to interpret the I Ching—a system centered on the concepts of yin and yang, transformation, and the dynamic nature of the universe—through the lens of contemporary scientific reasoning. Rather than treating it solely as a mystical or divinatory text, he approaches it as a symbolic framework that embodies profound insights into change, order, and human experience.
